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Thread: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

  1. #211
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I guess I never bought into the narrative that Leake had great command or pitching smarts. He might have an high I.Q., but that doesn't make him a smart pitcher. When I watch him pitch, I don't see anything that tells me that he has great command or knows how to pitch.

    Think about it, if he really did have great command of four pitches, he wouldn't be giving up 26 homers a season. There are plenty of pitchers with similar velocity as Leake who have out up much better numbers, Wainright, Lohse, Colby Lewis, Dempster, etc, so we can't just blame it on him being a soft tosser. There really isn't anyone who has great command and pitching smarts who has been has mediocre as Leake. If the Reds really did think had great command and pitching smarts when they drafted him, they clearly were wrong.
    Someone with a career 6.2% walk rate must be doing something right as far as command is concerned.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #212
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It records the release point on every pitch.

    The charts I posted were simply from the average release point, with all of the averages on that given pitch. But, we can get all of that data on every pitch.
    That release point is so very important. Can you tell me if it has changed much in the last 2 years?
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Someone with a career 6.2% walk rate must be doing something right as far as command is concerned.
    Someone averaging close to a homer a start must be doing something wrong as far as command is concerned too
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Someone with a career 6.2% walk rate must be doing something right as far as command is concerned.
    Throwing the ball in the zone and it getting hit. You don't see many low strikeout guys also walking a lot of guys. One reason is that when they throw the ball in the zone, the batters hit the ball.

  6. #215
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    That release point is so very important. Can you tell me if it has changed much in the last 2 years?
    Well, as a whole, it varies a bit. Depending on which pitch he throws, his release point is different a little bit. From 2010-2011, there wasn't much variance at all from his overall cluster of pitches. However from 2011-2012, his release points all moved up about 2.5 inches.

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    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, as a whole, it varies a bit. Depending on which pitch he throws, his release point is different a little bit. From 2010-2011, there wasn't much variance at all from his overall cluster of pitches. However from 2011-2012, his release points all moved up about 2.5 inches.
    Thanks, Doug. That tells me a little bit with regard to the movement. He may have moved up a little to get a little extra bite on the cutter, but I bet it has cost him some movement on his fastball.

    The cool thing about Mariano Rivera's cutter and fastball is that they both come out of the same arm slot and release point which makes it extremely difficult to pick up. Lots of deception with the same release point, and he is basically a two pitch pitcher.

    I have tried to ensure that all of my son's pitches (fastball, change, curve and cutter) come out of the same release point. He also throws close to over the top which gives him a great downward plane, and is a little different than most left-handers. He also has not sacrificed movement on his fastball by coming over the top which is also a little unusual. He is very difficult to square on a consistent basis. I have found that the release point being the same on all his pitches makes a huge difference.
    Talent is God Given: be humble.
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  8. #217
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Dave Cameron today:

    "I'm a Mike Leake fan"

    Take it for what it's worth.

  9. #218
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Throwing the ball in the zone and it getting hit. You don't see many low strikeout guys also walking a lot of guys. One reason is that when they throw the ball in the zone, the batters hit the ball.
    That's an awfully big exaggeration. If it were just throwing it in the zone as you suggest, big league hitters would tee off so bad a guy wouldn't last two starts in the majors.

    Leake is striking out 16% of batters faced. Clearly he's not just throwing it down the middle like you're insinuating. To have a nearly 2.7-to-1 K:BB rate in 500 professional innings -- all at the big league level -- that's command.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #219
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    That's an awfully big exaggeration. If it were just throwing it in the zone as you suggest, big league hitters would tee off so bad a guy wouldn't last two starts in the majors.

    Leake is striking out 16% of batters faced. Clearly he's not just throwing it down the middle like you're insinuating. To have a nearly 2.7-to-1 K:BB rate in 500 professional innings -- all at the big league level -- that's command.
    I wasn't insinuating he is a batting tee. Just that guys don't swing and miss at his stuff often. But if guys are hitting the pitches you throw in the strikezone, and they most certainly do with Leake, they aren't as likely to get deeper into the counts as often, thus lowering the walk rate as a by product.

  11. #220
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    To expand, the starters who had 90% of higher contact rate against in 2012 or higher, only one (of 24) had a walk rate of 10% or higher. Is it entirely coincidence? Yeah, I guess it could be. But I doubt it.

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Dave Cameron today:

    "I'm a Mike Leake fan"

    Take it for what it's worth.
    Well I'm a Bengal fan, but that doesn't mean I think they're any good
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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  14. #222
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY View Post
    How accurate is this technology?
    The physics involved are basically lift. So you basically get a measure relative to what would have happened differently than if it was only gravity affecting it. The spin in the ball affects the flow of air around it. For a fastball with backspin, this creates a pocket of low pressure above the ball, which results in a small amount if lift - same principal as a plane's wing.

    So instead of falling 40 inches it only falls 34 inches, meaning it had 6 inches of "rise".

    (I know you probably know that, was for everybody's benefit)
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  16. #223
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    As a famous though anonymous haiku writer of the Pre-Shiki period once quilled:

    Lift, fourseam fastball,
    Lift, the illusion of rise,
    Lift, a lack of sink.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  18. #224
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To expand, the starters who had 90% of higher contact rate against in 2012 or higher, only one (of 24) had a walk rate of 10% or higher. Is it entirely coincidence? Yeah, I guess it could be. But I doubt it.
    ding ding.

    He doesn't walk a ton of guys, but he allows a lot of baserunners via the hit. His sample size is three years, with no minor league seasons, so I'll grant the sample is smaller than Cueto at the same point in MLB. But he's had only 1 season where his H/9 was below 10, and only 1 season where his K/9 was above 6.

    He has this reputation as a ground ball pitcher, but his GB/FB ratio is 1.00.

    His MLB WHIP for his career is 1.33, a little high, but not too high for a 5th starter, certainly higher than one would expect from a 1st round pick. and that WHIP is seriously hit driven. Walks may haunt, but hits kill.

    And the types of hits. To suggest he's a batting tee might not be all that inaccurate, at least last year. 26 HR's, 46 doubles, 5 triples. Tell me you don't want those numbers from Jay Bruce.

    http://thebaseballcube.com has a wealth of pitch information.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The physics involved are basically lift. So you basically get a measure relative to what would have happened differently than if it was only gravity affecting it. The spin in the ball affects the flow of air around it. For a fastball with backspin, this creates a pocket of low pressure above the ball, which results in a small amount if lift - same principal as a plane's wing.

    So instead of falling 40 inches it only falls 34 inches, meaning it had 6 inches of "rise".

    (I know you probably know that, was for everybody's benefit)
    I didn't know this (other than a rising fastball is actually on that does not sink as much). I had no idea it was a product of lift. I never really thought about the why... I think my best guess would have been that the seams acted like miny paddles and a spin grabbed the air causing the lift. I am clearly no physic guy.

    ... so Thank you. This was certainly to MY benefit.


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