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Thread: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

  1. #316
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's been a back end starter up to this point in his career. That's not a controversial statement.
    Meh. I don't really have a dog in this argument.

    Dude is still young. Jumped to the pro's right out of college. Has a nice arsenal of pitches. Has a good bat. He is what he is with the potential to get better. Lots of location and speed changing pitchers have had success over the years - Maddux, Glavine, etc. Not saying he'll be those guys. But he has plenty of time.

    To me what will be interesting is if some of the farm system pitchers really make strides this year, and how it will affect management's thinking about the future and the payroll.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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  3. #317
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Nice start for Leake last night. Just wanted to give him some props as I'm sure he'd be taking hits here if he had been roughed up.

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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
    Well played
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

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  8. #320
    Newbie Rock of Truth's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Why not try Leake in Left Field? Dude brought the bat last night.

  9. #321
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Nasty_Boy View Post
    I give Leake very little credit for last night's performance... Mesoraco was the mastermind behind Leake's start
    If Hanigan's behind the plate, that's a perfect game.

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  11. #322
    Battle Toad Historian thatcoolguy_22's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    If Hanigan's behind the plate, that's a perfect game.
    Probably would have had a HR too instead of the triple.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

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  13. #323
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    Nice start for Leake last night. Just wanted to give him some props as I'm sure he'd be taking hits here if he had been roughed up.
    I agree! That was closer to the pitcher I saw in college and was very impressed by during those games and was excited we drafted.
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  14. #324
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Caught just a short clip of Leake after the game on channel 9. He said he just has to learn to trust his stuff and not pitch afraiid.

    I thought that last part was telling. I remember Homer pitching that same way, that is, having the confidence your stuff is good enough to get MLB hitters out so throw your pitches with conviction and don't nibble.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  15. #325
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Still not a fan, but he carved up the Phillies almost as well as Homer did. Nice outing.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    I love Mike Leake. My 2nd-favorite Reds starter to watch work (behind JC). I always have a soft spot for pitchers who can hit and look like all-around baseball players. (Where have you gone, Micah Owings?) Plus I like Leake's high pants, high socks old-school look.

  17. #327
    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Quote Originally Posted by redssince75 View Post
    Plus I like Leake's high pants, high socks old-school look.
    So, I'm not the only one!

  18. #328
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    I've been a big fan of Leake over the last few years (was really pumping him up last year) but after his first few starts this year I thought maybe a change was needed for him (whether it was conditioning or something else). It was really nice to see him bounce back with this kind of game. Hopefully it gets his confidence up.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  19. #329
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    Don't get me wrong, I like Leake, but if Cingrani comes out of the gate and proves himself, I almost have to think that Leake will either move to the pen or with a couple of strong performances (like last night) he could be very good trade bait and get us something strong in return.

    But to get back to the topic of this thread, he was brilliant last night on the mound and at the plate. I give him props.

  20. #330
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

    It seems to me that Leake is very much at the mercy of umpires, more so than most pitchers. He doesn't really have swing and miss stuff. And unlike Arroyo, he doesn't get by on deception and confusion. Rather, he's got that moving two-seamer that he can throw to either side. And when he's getting calls on the corners, he can be really effective. But when he's not getting the corners, he ends up either walking guys, giving up homers (because he gets too much of the plate) or both.

    I was just looking at the plate discipline stats for pitchers on Fangraphs. I think it's pretty interesting stuff. This is 2011-13.
    Code:
    Name		O-Swg%	Z-Swg%	Swing%	O-Cnt%	Z-Cnt%	Cntct%	 Zone%	F-Stk%	SwStr%
    Johnny Cueto	33.0 %	68.1 %	47.8 %	72.0 %	88.2 %	81.7 %	42.0 %	59.6 %	 8.6 %
    Mat Latos	33.0 %	65.0 %	48.0 %	66.0 %	85.5 %	78.3 %	46.7 %	62.1 %	10.1 %
    Bronson Arroyo	31.1 %	64.3 %	46.2 %	78.0 %	90.9 %	86.1 %	45.5 %	65.4 %	 6.3 %
    Homer Bailey	30.7 %	68.4 %	48.1 %	64.7 %	88.2 %	80.1 %	46.1 %	64.3 %	 9.4 %
    Mike Leake	30.5 %	64.8 %	45.2 %	72.2 %	90.6 %	83.5 %	43.0 %	60.2 %	 7.3 %
    Without more analysis, I'm not sure what meaningful variances are, but a few things stand out to me with Leake. Of the Reds 5 SP:
    - He's got the lowest O-Swing% (guys are least likely to chase his pitches out of the zone)
    - He's also got a low Z-Swing% (guys are more apt to take strikes against him)
    - He's got a high Contact% (when guys do swing, they are more likely to make contact against him)

    I think this generally supports the narrative I laid out above. Leake is most successful when he can get guys to take that fastball that runs back over the plate.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-18-2013 at 11:41 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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