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Thread: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

  1. #31
    Member jhu1321's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    I am of the belief thst this staff will look a bit different in 2014....no Bronson, no Homer and depending on how Leake does this year we could move him if he don't start pitching like a first round draft pick......if we can get Corcino and Cingrani to pitch like the starters we want them to be then I think we will be ok with Latos and Cueto manning the top spots but we really need a good AAA year from the 2 youngsters.....not to mention Stephenson, we truly need him just as bad to grow into a stud......

    My opinion is you stay far away from Lohse, you let Bronson walk unless he takes a discount for 1-2 years and you trade Homer before the deadline this year and bring up one of the youngsters to fill Baileys void....hopefully homer can land us a stud in return if homer continues to mature like he did ala 2nd half 2012....I just don't see us paying 3 starters top end money and Homer is in line to start making money.....

    In NONE of those cases do I see a need for Kyle Lohse.....I see no way he truly helps this team this year or next.....we have talent that is just as good as Kyle, why pay a premium for a guy who isn't going to help you more then the guys we already have on staff....and that's assuming chapman goes back to closing.
    No way do they trade Homer at the deadline this year. Maybe next..........

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by lidspinner View Post
    My opinion is you stay far away from Lohse, you let Bronson walk unless he takes a discount for 1-2 years and you trade Homer before the deadline this year and bring up one of the youngsters to fill Baileys void....hopefully homer can land us a stud in return if homer continues to mature like he did ala 2nd half 2012....I just don't see us paying 3 starters top end money and Homer is in line to start making money.....
    If Homer Bailey continues to mature like he did in the second half, the Reds aren't going to even consider trading him because that is a guy who they can ride into the playoffs. Maybe money considerations mean he gets moved after 2013, but it won't happen before then if he is successful.

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  5. #33
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Didn't they offer Homer a multi-year deal and he took only a 1 year deal?

    Either he thinks he can have a great season and make more next year or he is positioning himself to move on.
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  6. #34
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Didn't they offer Homer a multi-year deal and he took only a 1 year deal?

    Either he thinks he can have a great season and make more next year or he is positioning himself to move on.
    Either way we will have a very motivated Homer Bailey, which should do nothing but help the ballclub out!!!

  7. #35
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    I'm not sure we want either on a multi-year contract. But here is the comparison.

    Age: Lohse is 1.5 years younger than Arroyo.
    Career stats:
    Arroyo has a 124-115 career record, with a 4.25 ERA. He has a 1.305 WHIP, and a 5.9 K/9 rate. ERA + of 104.
    Lohse has a 118-109 career record, with a 4.45 ERA. He has a 1.369 WHIP, and a 5.6 K/9 rate. ERA+ of 97.

    Arroyo has the better career to date. Which guy relies more on control and finesse? Who will age better? Probably Arroyo, IMO.
    You're right in an aggregate sense that Arroyo has had a slightly better career. However Arroyo has been pretty much the same pitcher his entire career with random years being better and worse. With Lohse, he has show that he has got better in recent years. Look at RA Dickey as a reference point for this. Dickey has had a mediocre career on a whole but has been stellar the past three years since he's picked up the knuckleball. Kyle Lohse learned to pitch in St. Louis instead of just throwing like he did prior to coming there.


    Absolutely NO on Loshe. We had him. He was a waste of money then. Did he pitch well for St Louis, yes. Did they give up on him, yes. Why would we want him?
    The reason why St. Louis gave up on him (more accurately didn't sign him to a long term deal) is because they have a lot of young pitching with a ton of upside that would have been blocked if he remained there. It has nothing to do with the Cardinals feeling that he is somehow bad nor does that mean he wouldn't be a positive contributor to the Reds starting rotation.
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  8. #36
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    You're right in an aggregate sense that Arroyo has had a slightly better career. However Arroyo has been pretty much the same pitcher his entire career with random years being better and worse. With Lohse, he has show that he has got better in recent years. Look at RA Dickey as a reference point for this. Dickey has had a mediocre career on a whole but has been stellar the past three years since he's picked up the knuckleball. Kyle Lohse learned to pitch in St. Louis instead of just throwing like he did prior to coming there.




    The reason why St. Louis gave up on him (more accurately didn't sign him to a long term deal) is because they have a lot of young pitching with a ton of upside that would have been blocked if he remained there. It has nothing to do with the Cardinals feeling that he is somehow bad nor does that mean he wouldn't be a positive contributor to the Reds starting rotation.
    Meh. Arroyo has started 29+ games per season every year since 2004. I'm not big on wins and losses, but he's won 10+ games in 7 of those seasons, and in the other 2 seasons he won 9 in each. Dude is a workhorse. And he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. in 4 of those seasons. And I think we can all put an asterisk next to his 2011 season where he took the ball to start 32 games despite having Mono and recovering from it in a weakened state, which lead to his worst e.r.a. of 5.07.

    Then there's Lohse. In 12 seasons of starting, he's won 10+ games 5 times. He's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. only 3 times in 12 seasons. He is coming off of his best season which conveniently fell in a contract year. And in 12 seasons, he has started 29+ games 8 times. Fairly durable although he had a couple of injury-plagued seasons recently in 2009 and 2010.

    I think with Arroyo, you know what you're getting. With Lohse, it's more of a crapshoot.

    If the Reds got 2012 version of Lohse, I'd say they run away with the National League pennant. But you can't predict these things.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  9. #37
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Meh. Arroyo has started 29+ games per season every year since 2004. I'm not big on wins and losses, but he's won 10+ games in 7 of those seasons, and in the other 2 seasons he won 9 in each. Dude is a workhorse. And he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. in 4 of those seasons. And I think we can all put an asterisk next to his 2011 season where he took the ball to start 32 games despite having Mono and recovering from it in a weakened state, which lead to his worst e.r.a. of 5.07.

    Then there's Lohse. In 12 seasons of starting, he's won 10+ games 5 times. He's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. only 3 times in 12 seasons. He is coming off of his best season which conveniently fell in a contract year. And in 12 seasons, he has started 29+ games 8 times. Fairly durable although he had a couple of injury-plagued seasons recently in 2009 and 2010.

    I think with Arroyo, you know what you're getting. With Lohse, it's more of a crapshoot.

    If the Reds got 2012 version of Lohse, I'd say they run away with the National League pennant. But you can't predict these things.
    I'm more interested in recent history, not what someone did in 2004. The recent trend for Lohse is that he's a much better and younger pitcher than Arroyo is. Of course, I've always had a low opinion of Arroyo so I'm always going to be biased against him in an argument. I freely admit that.
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  10. #38
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I'm more interested in recent history, not what someone did in 2004. The recent trend for Lohse is that he's a much better and younger pitcher than Arroyo is. Of course, I've always had a low opinion of Arroyo so I'm always going to be biased against him in an argument. I freely admit that.
    Yea, I can understand that.
    Honestly, I'm not sure who would be better (let's say for 2014-2015)
    I think Arroyo might be the safer bet, but he has less upside than Lohse does.

    I really love how Arroyo is pretty much a lock to give you 200 IP/season. That gives him a slight edge to Lohse. I think Arroyo will age better, but I agree in terms of upside, Lohse is potentially better than Arroyo the next 2 years.

    You're right, Lohse is trending upwards. In fact, he'll probably be better than Arroyo in 2013. Not sure how it will play out beyond 2013.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  11. #39
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    200 innings seems to be the big feather in the cap to Arroyo and the main talking point. While I'm not saying it be should null and void in this debate because there is some validity to it, I'm not going to give that huge precedent if the pitcher in question gives you better production. Arroyo's 200 innings isn't great if he's giving you inconsistent performances. Besides, I think it's almost a moot point when comparing Lohse to Arroyo.

    Here's what Lohse has given to his respective team in terms of innings in recent years:

    2007- 192.2
    2008- 200
    2009-117.2
    2010-92.0
    2011-188.1
    2012-211

    In 2009 and 2010 he had freaky injuries that no pitcher or player in the history of baseball had. They had to look at motor cross drivers to see a case history of it. It's the kind of injury in which it's almost a million to one injury for baseball players. We aren't talking about some sort of nagging issue or warning sign type of injury. If Arroyo can give the Reds 200 innings, is that enough of a benefit to where you would take him over a Kyle Lohse who will give your team 188+ innings? I don't think it is.
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  12. #40
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    In light of Chapman returning to the pen, I'm officially on board with bringing in Kyle Lohse.
    Championships Matter.
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  14. #41
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    In light of Chapman returning to the pen, I'm officially on board with bringing in Kyle Lohse.
    Ugh, I kind of agree but have this feeling Lohse will be in his old Cincy form the moment he gets here.

  15. #42
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I'm more interested in recent history, not what someone did in 2004. The recent trend for Lohse is that he's a much better and younger pitcher than Arroyo is. Of course, I've always had a low opinion of Arroyo so I'm always going to be biased against him in an argument. I freely admit that.
    Uh, Lohse turned 34 in October and Arroyo just turned 36 in late February. Lohse is like 34.5 and Arroyo is a young 36. I don't think I'd call that much younger.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  16. #43
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    Uh, Lohse turned 34 in October and Arroyo just turned 36 in late February. Lohse is like 34.5 and Arroyo is a young 36. I don't think I'd call that much younger.
    In terms of 3-5 year contracts he is.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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  17. #44
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    In terms of 3-5 year contracts he is.
    I don't see any team lining up to sign Lohse for more than 1 year.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  18. #45
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse - Reds dark horse?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I don't see any team lining up to sign Lohse for more than 1 year.
    If that is the case, he might wait until the draft is over this year or just resign with the Cardinals.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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