If Homer Bailey continues to mature like he did in the second half, the Reds aren't going to even consider trading him because that is a guy who they can ride into the playoffs. Maybe money considerations mean he gets moved after 2013, but it won't happen before then if he is successful.
REDREAD (03-19-2013)
Didn't they offer Homer a multi-year deal and he took only a 1 year deal?
Either he thinks he can have a great season and make more next year or he is positioning himself to move on.
You're right in an aggregate sense that Arroyo has had a slightly better career. However Arroyo has been pretty much the same pitcher his entire career with random years being better and worse. With Lohse, he has show that he has got better in recent years. Look at RA Dickey as a reference point for this. Dickey has had a mediocre career on a whole but has been stellar the past three years since he's picked up the knuckleball. Kyle Lohse learned to pitch in St. Louis instead of just throwing like he did prior to coming there.
The reason why St. Louis gave up on him (more accurately didn't sign him to a long term deal) is because they have a lot of young pitching with a ton of upside that would have been blocked if he remained there. It has nothing to do with the Cardinals feeling that he is somehow bad nor does that mean he wouldn't be a positive contributor to the Reds starting rotation.Absolutely NO on Loshe. We had him. He was a waste of money then. Did he pitch well for St Louis, yes. Did they give up on him, yes. Why would we want him?
Meh. Arroyo has started 29+ games per season every year since 2004. I'm not big on wins and losses, but he's won 10+ games in 7 of those seasons, and in the other 2 seasons he won 9 in each. Dude is a workhorse. And he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. in 4 of those seasons. And I think we can all put an asterisk next to his 2011 season where he took the ball to start 32 games despite having Mono and recovering from it in a weakened state, which lead to his worst e.r.a. of 5.07.
Then there's Lohse. In 12 seasons of starting, he's won 10+ games 5 times. He's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. only 3 times in 12 seasons. He is coming off of his best season which conveniently fell in a contract year. And in 12 seasons, he has started 29+ games 8 times. Fairly durable although he had a couple of injury-plagued seasons recently in 2009 and 2010.
I think with Arroyo, you know what you're getting. With Lohse, it's more of a crapshoot.
If the Reds got 2012 version of Lohse, I'd say they run away with the National League pennant. But you can't predict these things.
I'm more interested in recent history, not what someone did in 2004. The recent trend for Lohse is that he's a much better and younger pitcher than Arroyo is. Of course, I've always had a low opinion of Arroyo so I'm always going to be biased against him in an argument. I freely admit that.
Yea, I can understand that.
Honestly, I'm not sure who would be better (let's say for 2014-2015)
I think Arroyo might be the safer bet, but he has less upside than Lohse does.
I really love how Arroyo is pretty much a lock to give you 200 IP/season. That gives him a slight edge to Lohse. I think Arroyo will age better, but I agree in terms of upside, Lohse is potentially better than Arroyo the next 2 years.
You're right, Lohse is trending upwards. In fact, he'll probably be better than Arroyo in 2013. Not sure how it will play out beyond 2013.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
200 innings seems to be the big feather in the cap to Arroyo and the main talking point. While I'm not saying it be should null and void in this debate because there is some validity to it, I'm not going to give that huge precedent if the pitcher in question gives you better production. Arroyo's 200 innings isn't great if he's giving you inconsistent performances. Besides, I think it's almost a moot point when comparing Lohse to Arroyo.
Here's what Lohse has given to his respective team in terms of innings in recent years:
2007- 192.2
2008- 200
2009-117.2
2010-92.0
2011-188.1
2012-211
In 2009 and 2010 he had freaky injuries that no pitcher or player in the history of baseball had. They had to look at motor cross drivers to see a case history of it. It's the kind of injury in which it's almost a million to one injury for baseball players. We aren't talking about some sort of nagging issue or warning sign type of injury. If Arroyo can give the Reds 200 innings, is that enough of a benefit to where you would take him over a Kyle Lohse who will give your team 188+ innings? I don't think it is.
In light of Chapman returning to the pen, I'm officially on board with bringing in Kyle Lohse.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
Tom Servo (03-21-2013)
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