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Thread: Chapman to bullpen now official

  1. #91
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Relievers are flaky by nature. They seem to benefit inordinately from structure, and suffer inordinately from a lack of structure. I'd like to think closing or pitching the 8th makes no difference. I want that to be the case, but reliever volatility is a real thing and I'd be wary of contributing to it.
    Rather than telling you my opinion I'll tell you that he was asked about it the other day and said he didn't really care, that he'd show up and work as planned.

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  3. #92
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/ey...em-in-baseball

    In a vacuum, starting pitchers are more valuable than relievers. Your garden variety mid-rotation workhorse is more valuable than even the most dominant closer simply because of the volume of innings. Seventy innings will never be more valuable than 180+ innings, doesn't matter what the score is or anything like that. Starters bad enough to be less valuable than a reliever usually don't remain in a rotation very long.

    Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum. Context changes everything. The Reds aren't just legitimate World Series contenders, they're legitimate World Series contenders with five starters other than Chapman. He would be bumping someone (presumably Mike Leake) from the starting staff should he make the rotation. Cincinnati could be fixing a rotation that isn't broken, so to speak.

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  5. #93
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: With Chapman now officially back in the bullpen

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    He throws so many fastballs BECAUSE he's a bullpen arm. It's like saying a football team passes too much during a 2 minute-drill. The situation dictates pitch choice, therefore Chapman sets up with a fastball and finishes with a slider.

    Has everyone forgotten he was a starter growing up? It's not like this was a radical change, he just hasn't gotten the opportunity in MLB-level.
    With Chapman the issue has always been command. Last season saw a huge, hopefully not random, improvement in his command.

    If the Reds decide to keep Chapman in the pen, it was probably a referendum on how they currently view his command of the other stuff he has to throw as a starter (and might serve as an earlier predictor of whether we should expect his BB/9 to regress this season though we probably should anyway).

    This isn't a trivial thing to brush off when lamenting a potential decision to not make him a starter right now.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  7. #94
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    And their returning bullpen posted a 2.84 ERA last season without Chapman. Removing Chapman from the bullpen would also not be creating any kind of problem.

  8. #95
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And their returning bullpen posted a 2.84 ERA last season without Chapman. Removing Chapman from the bullpen would also not be creating any kind of problem.
    Email the author, I'm just linking to something beside my opinion

  9. #96
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Email the author, I'm just linking to something beside my opinion
    Sure, but I am also going to discuss it here for everyone else who happens to read that authors opinion here.

  10. #97
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And their returning bullpen posted a 2.84 ERA last season without Chapman. Removing Chapman from the bullpen would also not be creating any kind of problem.
    As the author noted, nothing happens in a vacuum.

    One can't assume that with Chapman removed from the pen, those same relievers would put up the same numbers. Their roles would be different, they would be pitching not just more innings, and facing more batters, they would be pitching different innings, facing different batters, in different situations.

    We have no idea how they would pitch if Chapman wasn't their as the closer.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #98
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum. Context changes everything. The Reds aren't just legitimate World Series contenders, they're legitimate World Series contenders with five starters other than Chapman. He would be bumping someone (presumably Mike Leake) from the starting staff should he make the rotation. Cincinnati could be fixing a rotation that isn't broken, so to speak.
    This point just kills me. Evidently everything can be easily classified into "broke" or "ain't broke". Third base "ain't broke" either, but it doesn't mean having Ryan Zimmerman wouldn't be an improvement.

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  13. #99
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    As the author noted, nothing happens in a vacuum.

    One can't assume that with Chapman removed from the pen, those same relievers would put up the same numbers. Their roles would be different, they would be pitching not just more innings, and facing more batters, they would be pitching different innings, facing different batters, in different situations.

    We have no idea how they would pitch if Chapman wasn't their as the closer.
    Do you honestly believe that Aroldis Chapman being around them makes them better or worse? Does he lone them his arm to throw with? Does he use a laser pen from the bullpen and shine it into the hitters eyes? These pitchers get by because of their abilities, not because of someone else on the team.

  14. #100
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post


    I'm with Team Jocketty on this one...

    but I'd bet Team Dustman wins out, at least this year.



    Fwiw, compare the Reds handling of Chapman with the Nats handling of Strasburg. Strasburg has already been through tommy john surgery and is STILL farther along in his development as a pitcher.

    I realize it is not apples to apples, but it is close enough to get the point. The Reds have done all they can to Bungle their prized arm, and do not seem to be getting better at dealing with him.....

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  16. #101
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Do you honestly believe that Aroldis Chapman being around them makes them better or worse? Does he lone them his arm to throw with? Does he use a laser pen from the bullpen and shine it into the hitters eyes? These pitchers get by because of their abilities, not because of someone else on the team.
    That's not even close to what I said.

    If Chapman isn't the closer, then Marshall is. Marshall is facing difference hitters in different situations than he did last season. That means Arredondo is probably in Marshall's role, also facing different hitters in different situations. LeCure is probably now in Arredondo's role, and Ondrusek in LeCure's and Simon's in Ondrusek's, etc.

    They aren't facing the same hitters in the same situation, so we don't know how they will do. I'm not saying they will do worse, or better, just that we can't assume that they will produce the same numbers in their new roles.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  18. #102
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's not even close to what I said.

    If Chapman isn't the closer, then Marshall is. Marshall is facing difference hitters in different situations than he did last season. That means Arredondo is probably in Marshall's role, also facing different hitters in different situations. LeCure is probably now in Arredondo's role, and Ondrusek in LeCure's and Simon's in Ondrusek's, etc.

    They aren't facing the same hitters in the same situation, so we don't know how they will do. I'm not saying they will do worse, or better, just that we can't assume that they will produce the same numbers in their new roles.
    Throughout the course of the season, they are all going to face their fair share of 1-9 hitters. So it is very easy to suggest they will perform the same in a different role, assuming their role is still in the bullpen.

  19. #103
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Throughout the course of the season, they are all going to face their fair share of 1-9 hitters. So it is very easy to suggest they will perform the same in a different role, assuming their role is still in the bullpen.
    Check their splits, that's not accurate. And that's not the whole story. Managers use certain pitchers in certain situations for good reason, they choose to use them when they would most likely succeed. Removing Chapman from the pen makes that more difficult.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  20. #104
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Check their splits, that's not accurate. And that's not the whole story. Managers use certain pitchers in certain situations for good reason, they choose to use them when they would most likely succeed. Removing Chapman from the pen makes that more difficult.
    Code:
    % of lineup spot faced in 2012
                     LO      AC      SL      AS			
    Split 	        %	%	%	%
    Batting 1st 	9.5%	9.1%	11.9%	10.1%
    Batting 2nd 	9.9%	9.4%	10.2%	11.3%
    Batting 3rd 	11.5%	12.3%	10.6%	12.2%
    Batting 4th 	13.6%	14.1%	9.8%	12.6%
    Batting 5th 	14.0%	13.8%	10.6%	12.2%
    Batting 6th 	12.8%	13.0%	11.5%	10.9%
    Batting 7th 	11.9%	11.2%	10.6%	10.9%
    Batting 8th 	9.5%	8.7%	12.8%	10.1%
    Batting 9th 	7.4%	8.3%	11.9%	9.7%
    Ondrusek, Chapman, LeCure and Simon.... looks like they all face roughly the same number of guys throughout the lineup to me.

  21. #105
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    When mom and dad fight, who do you side with?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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