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Thread: Chapman to bullpen now official

  1. #136
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The Mike Leake "is or isn't" argument really needs context.

    Here is Leake compared to the NL average starter from 2010-2012:

    Code:
    10' -'12	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave    	7.04	2.92	45.0	4.01	3.98
    Leake	        6.03	2.38	48.9	4.23	4.43
    Here is Leake's 2012 compared to the average NL starter in 2012:

    Code:
    					
    2012	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave	7.28	2.81	45.4	4.04	3.97
    Leake	5.83	2.06	48.9	4.58	4.42
    Putting Leake in context indicates he's been about 10 runs worse than average per 200 IP (i.e. 1 WAR below average) based upon his peripherals. He has below average velocity and above average contact rates (or below average "miss bat" rates). The biggest pluses he's shown so far? He can throw strikes and doesn't have much in the way of platoon splits. He has limited trade value as AL teams wouldn't likely bite. That's a back end starter. Remove the influence of the Reds defense from behind him and I seriously doubt this conversation would even be had by fans.

    BTW, xFIP wasn't included because it innapropriately makes Leake's numbers look better by removing a serious flaw-his consistent tendency to give up too many homers. For those who want to argue Leake is Doug Fister the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.

    Thats the context of what Mike Leake has been and is.... If one wants to argue that Leake will be something dramatically different going forward, that's a different argument and one is welcome to have at it.
    Personally, I use stats like ERA and WHIP to discuss who a pitcher was, and his peripherals to discuss who is likely will be going forward. I think using peripherals to discuss who a pitcher was misses the point of peripherals.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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  4. #137
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Parra was a surprise signing. I know he is a lefty but "does" he make the bullpen better?

  5. #138
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Good grief, this "Mike Leake is terrible" hyperbole has reached a new level of insane.

    The guy has a career 3.87 xFIP and 4.23 ERA at 25 years old, just 485 innings into his professional career. Anyone thinks that is "terrible" doesn't pay much attention to fifth starters and clearly wasn't paying attention to the last decade of the Reds' organization.
    If Leake had made his debut in 2001, he would've been worshiped as a future Maddux/potential ace. I agree, we've gotten a bit spoiled the last few years.
    Leake is a great 5th starter, and that should factor into the decision making with Chapman.

    Honestly, I'm not convinced Chapman starting would outperform Leake this year. IMO, Chapman starting is a long term project.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  6. #139
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The Mike Leake "is or isn't" argument really needs context.

    Here is Leake compared to the NL average starter from 2010-2012:

    Code:
    10' -'12	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave    	7.04	2.92	45.0	4.01	3.98
    Leake	        6.03	2.38	48.9	4.23	4.43
    Here is Leake's 2012 compared to the average NL starter in 2012:

    Code:
    					
    2012	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave	7.28	2.81	45.4	4.04	3.97
    Leake	5.83	2.06	48.9	4.58	4.42
    Putting Leake in context indicates he's been about 10 runs worse than average per 200 IP (i.e. 1 WAR below average) based upon his peripherals. He has below average velocity and above average contact rates (or below average "miss bat" rates). The biggest pluses he's shown so far? He can throw strikes and doesn't have much in the way of platoon splits. He has limited trade value as AL teams wouldn't likely bite. That's a back end starter. Remove the influence of the Reds defense from behind him and I seriously doubt this conversation would even be had by fans.

    BTW, xFIP wasn't included because it innapropriately makes Leake's numbers look better by removing a serious flaw-his consistent tendency to give up too many homers. For those who want to argue Leake is Doug Fister the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.

    Thats the context of what Mike Leake has been and is.... If one wants to argue that Leake will be something dramatically different going forward, that's a different argument and one is welcome to have at it.
    Liked and quoted for truth. Never cared for Leake, and i really think when talking mental makeup about Chapman, keep in mind this is the guy that was/is a soon to be millionaire that shoplifted t-shirts. He isn't the poster boy for mental makeup.

    So beyond tired of the mental makeup theory. Try this. Have Mat Latos (who has been known to be a bit of a flake/immature) be uprooted to say, South Korea. Have him leave his wife behind, and make it so he cannot contact anyone he knows from the U.S. Let him get comfortable with a new culture, oh and throw in a ton of money, so, beforehand he'd have to have been making almost nothing. Make him a superstar in Korea too, where he's interviewed constantly through interpreters.

    Anyone have any thoughts on if he might have a few flaky moments?

    Chapman as a starter for April and May, limit is IP as much as possible. If it lookslike his secondary pitches aren't strong enough to keep him in the rotation, then ease him back into the backend, no harm. Because, IMO, he is a better pitcher in EVERY ASPECT than Mike Leake, I think he can succeed. At worst he's a wash to the best Leake can deliver.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  8. #140
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    Parra was a surprise signing. I know he is a lefty but "does" he make the bullpen better?
    I was one of those that thought it was a good signing. But he continues to walk too many batters. I'm not so sure he sticks, unless it's L'ville.

  9. #141
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Personally, I use stats like ERA and WHIP to discuss who a pitcher was, and his peripherals to discuss who is likely will be going forward. I think using peripherals to discuss who a pitcher was misses the point of peripherals.
    Not using peripherals to discuss who a pitcher was actually misses the point of peripherals.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #142
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    http://mlb.si.com/2013/03/21/aroldis.../?sct=uk_wr_a1

    Furthermore, Leakeís work has drawn some positive attention this spring. Earlier this week ESPNís Buster Olney tweeted, ďTalked to scouts who are raving about work of Mike Leake this spring, about how heís commanding four different pitches, throwing 92-93 mph.Ē Similarly, last week Fox Sportsí Ken Rosenthal wrote that Leake was working in the 88-92 mph range and threw four pitches for strikes.

    ē Chapmanís limited arsenal. Thereís no dispute about Chapmanís awe-inspiring velocity. As I noted in our Power Week feature earlier this month, he holds the major league record for the fastest recorded pitch, with a 105.1 mph heater back in September 2010, and more pitches in the triple-digit range than any other NL hurler in each of the past three years, including that yearís abbreviated debut; his 484 over the last three years are 174 more than the runner up. According to the PitchF/X data at Baseball Prospectus, his average fastball velocity of 98.8 mph, is third among all relievers with at least 1,000 pitches since 2007.

    Man cannot live by fastball alone, however. During his brief major league career, Chapman has thrown the heater 85 percent of the time and his slider 14 percent of the time, with just five change-ups mixed in there in three years

    Interesting article that makes some pretty good points. I would love to see Chapman start the year out in the rotation, but I will not be bringing my pitchfork to GABP if he's not.
    Development of his secondary pitches is extremely important if he's going to start. What's the latest on that?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  11. #143
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Leake is a good #5 and probably an average to slightly below average #4. We have gotten spoiled enough not to want to accept that, which is not a bad thing.

    The problem with Leake is that I don't think he has enough upside to ever be more than that. Certainly he has some value, but I like my back-of-the-rotation guys to be up-and-comers with the eventual upside to become a front or at least middle of the rotation guy (kind of like what Homer Bailey has been the past couple years). That is why I would prefer an Aroldis Chapman or a Rick Porcello as our #5 starter to a Mike Leake.

    I think Leake could be very attractive to San Diego, where he actually could look more like a #3 starter (and play in front of his hometown crowd).
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #144
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not using peripherals to discuss who a pitcher was actually misses the point of peripherals.
    Peripherals are by definition not discussing who someone was, or else they wouldn't be called peripherals.

    All I care about in discussing who someone was is their actual production that lead to actual runs and actual wins and loses. Anything else is peripheral to the discussion and doesn't tell me who he was in terms of actually helping his team win games.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Leake is a good #5 and probably an average to slightly below average #4. We have gotten spoiled enough not to want to accept that, which is not a bad thing.

    The problem with Leake is that I don't think he has enough upside to ever be more than that. Certainly he has some value, but I like my back-of-the-rotation guys to be up-and-comers with the eventual upside to become a front or at least middle of the rotation guy (kind of like what Homer Bailey has been the past couple years). That is why I would prefer an Aroldis Chapman or a Rick Porcello as our #5 starter to a Mike Leake.

    I think Leake could be very attractive to San Diego, where he actually could look more like a #3 starter (and play in front of his hometown crowd).
    Mike Leake could be a very reliable, steady pitcher. He has good control, throws hard enough, mixes his pitches, gets grounders.

    But he cannot continue to give up 26 homers per season. Period.

    He gives up a lot of contact. Men are on base. He must refrain from allowing the long ball.

    It's really that simple. If he can't cope with GABP then I agree, he'd be better off elsewhere. If he can learn to cut out the long balls, he'd be fine.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-22-2013 at 12:03 PM.

  14. #146
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Peripherals are by definition not discussing who someone was, or else they wouldn't be called peripherals.

    All I care about in discussing who someone was is their actual production that lead to actual runs and actual wins and loses. Anything else is peripheral to the discussion and doesn't tell me who he was in terms of actually helping his team win games.
    Peripherals are by sabermetric definition the actual things a player could control-i.e. who the player actual was.

    You're actually arguing that youre more interested in what the team was when player X was part of the mix. Viewing things through that filter actually clouds estimates of the player's contribution to team wins.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  16. #147
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Peripherals are by sabermetric definition the actual things a player could control-i.e. who the player actual was.

    You're actually arguing that youre more interested in what the team was when player X was part of the mix. Viewing things through that filter actually clouds estimates of the player's contribution to team wins.
    The challenge with the FIP peripherals is that they do ignore the reality that pitchers have some control over BABIP and that some have demonstrated a skill at limiting damage (e.g. Tom Glavine walking more guys but giving up fewer hits and homers with men on base).

    I'm with you in that the peripherals give you a more accurate picture than the blunt team results captured by ERA and WHIP. But anybody looking at peripherals to see who a guy was should at least consider the peripherals beyond Ks, BBs and HRs.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  17. #148
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The challenge with the FIP peripherals is that they do ignore the reality that pitchers have some control over BABIP and that some have demonstrated a skill at limiting damage (e.g. Tom Glavine walking more guys but giving up fewer hits and homers with men on base).

    I'm with you in that the peripherals give you a more accurate picture than the blunt team results captured by ERA and WHIP. But anybody looking at peripherals to see who a guy was should at least consider the peripherals beyond Ks, BBs and HRs.
    I have often argued for looking at ALL pitcher peripherals including things like BABIP, LOB%, batted ball tendencies etc when evaluating who a pitcher actually was....

    That said, someone arguing FIP is painting a skewed picture of an individual pitcher because of that pitcher's BABIP needs to show their work. I know you haven't argued such is the case for Leake but i'll state it for the record, such is not the case for Leake.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #149
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    If Chapman is moved to Closer then the Reds should really think about Kyle Lohse. Running Mike Leake out there ever 5 days is a very bad idea. I kept hearing how Chapman and Leake were neck and neck for the 5th starter job this spring then I looked at the stats.

    Leake has a .421 BBA with a 1.92 WHIP, and yes you will here the chorus of people that claim spring training numbers mean nothing, but if that is true how can you ever have 2 players fight a for a single job during ST. Plus Leake's numbers have been never been good and are declining.

    BTW Chapman's ST numbers .185 BBA with a 1.13 WHIP

    back to Leake

    2010 .666 Wpct
    2011 .571 Wpct
    2012 .471 Wpct

    In 2012 he had a .287 BBA with a .805 OPS against
    that .287 was the absolute worse in the NL for qualified pitchers last season (46th out of 46th)

    his OPS against was ranked 45th out of 46th last season.
    his WHIP was ranked 37th

    I would rather see Sam LeCure every 5 days than Mike Leake, at least he can keep the ball in the park

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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    If Chapman is moved to Closer then the Reds should really think about Kyle Lohse. Running Mike Leake out there ever 5 days is a very bad idea.
    The Reds signing Lohse to a 4 year-$50M contract and losing our 1st round pick is a worse idea.

    And signing him to any contract and losing our 1st round pick isn't any beter.


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