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Thread: Chapman to bullpen now official

  1. #151
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The Reds signing Lohse to a 4 year-$50M contract and losing our 1st round pick is a worse idea.

    And signing him to any contract and losing our 1st round pick isn't any beter.
    Let's not be silly. Lohse is certainly worth giving up a first round pick (especially the Reds' late-first round pick) if the contract makes sense. 2 years $20-25 million would make sense for Lohse. He would be the best #3 starter in baseball, but would be considered our #5. We would have a top-3 (in MLB) rotation and maybe the best bullpen in baseball. Signing Lohse would be fantastic.
    Last edited by Pony Boy; 03-22-2013 at 01:17 PM.

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  3. #152
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    Let's not be silly. Lohse is certainly worth giving up a first round pick (especially the Reds' late-first round pick) if the contract makes sense. He would be the best #3 starter in baseball, but would be considered our #5. We would have a top-3 (in MLB) rotation and maybe the best bullpen in baseball. Signing Lohse would be fantastic.
    I would not be interested in signing Lohse to a one year contract and losing our first round pick (and cap money that goers with it).

    Consider the fact that every team looking at him has been reluctant to give up its 1st round pick to sign him. And doing so to get him for just one year is even less tempting.

    I guess it depends largely on how well you think he'll pitch this year. I don't think he's a good fit here.

  4. #153
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I would not be interested in signing Lohse to a one year contract and losing our first round pick (and cap money that goers with it).

    Consider the fact that every team looking at him has been reluctant to give up its 1st round pick to sign him. And doing so to get him for just one year is even less tempting.

    I guess it depends largely on how well you think he'll pitch this year. I don't think he's a good fit here.
    Teams arent reluctant to give up a first round pick. They are reluctant to give him a big contract and a first round pick. If his price comes down he makes sense for a contending team like the Reds, picking in the bottom half of the frame.

  5. #154
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    Let's not be silly. Lohse is certainly worth giving up a first round pick (especially the Reds' late-first round pick) if the contract makes sense. He would be the best #3 starter in baseball, but would be considered our #5. We would have a top-3 (in MLB) rotation and maybe the best bullpen in baseball. Signing Lohse would be fantastic.
    I wouldn't mind giving up the draft pick, largely because the Reds are picking in the crap shoot region of the first round. And I wouldn't mind Lohse for a year or two, but he's a 34-year-old pitcher who's been average for the bulk of his career and for the balance of his last five seasons. I would not throw big dollars and a lot of years at him.

    As an industry, MLB seems to agree. 2012 likely will be career year. No point in paying him for it now that it's over.
    Last edited by M2; 03-22-2013 at 02:08 PM.
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  6. #155
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Peripherals are by sabermetric definition the actual things a player could control-i.e. who the player actual was.

    You're actually arguing that youre more interested in what the team was when player X was part of the mix. Viewing things through that filter actually clouds estimates of the player's contribution to team wins.
    Strikeouts do very little in telling us how much a player helped his team win, while SLG against tells us a bunch.

    How much a player controls anything is subjective, basically there is nothing that they complete control by themselves. Every stat is team and opposing team related There just are certain stats that historically most pitchers in general have more control over than others. And that list is in a constant state of flux. It's arrogant to claim that stats A, B and C are controllable while D, E and F are not, and to thus only use A, B and C and to ignore D, E and F.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #156
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Strikeouts do very little in telling us how much a player helped his team win, while SLG against tells us a bunch.

    How much a player controls anything is subjective, basically there is nothing that they complete control by themselves. Every stat is team and opposing team related There just are certain stats that historically most pitchers in general have more control over than others. And that list is in a constant state of flux. It's arrogant to claim that stats A, B and C are controllable while D, E and F are not, and to thus only use A, B and C and to ignore D, E and F.
    It's not arrogant to make the argument that the CFer has nothing to do with a strikeout, walk, or HR while the pitcher has maximal influence over them.

    Meanwhile the CFer may very well have influenced SLG against.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #157
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    As an industry, MLB seems to agree. 2012 likely will be career year. No point in paying him for it now that it's over.

    The man needs the jack though....


    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...boras/2007473/


    Kyle Lohse, with the 2013 season opening on March 31, remains standing in baseball's unemployment line.

    Lohse could step from his 8,700-square foot dwelling onto any baseball field in the Valley and immediately be better than virtually any pitcher that's appeared in the Cactus League this spring.

    Instead, he will open his car Friday morning, stuff his baseball equipment bag in the trunk, and drive 20 minutes to a local community college. He's scheduled to throw 90 pitches in a simulated game against a group of teenagers. There will be no fanfare, let alone a fan, in sight.**
    ** But that 8700 square foot house will be waiting for him when he returns.

  9. #158
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    ** But that 8700 square foot house will be waiting for him when he returns.
    His A/C bill must be astronomical. Just wait for the AZ heat to crank up and he'll sign a one-year deal for whatever he can get.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's not arrogant to make the argument that the CFer has nothing to do with a strikeout, walk, or HR while the pitcher has maximal influence over them.

    Meanwhile the CFer may very well have influenced SLG against.
    Arrogant was a bad choice of words. Naive is a better one.

    Who is playing defense, and where there are positioning themselves absolutely effects the outcome of every pitch. The shift is an w treme example, but it makes the point quite clearly. When a shift is on, the pitcher chooses different pitches, and the batter adjusts his approach. The same is true to a lesser extent for all defenses.

    Like I said, no pitcher has full control over anything. Everything is team dependent. It's all just a matter of degree.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #160
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    and yes you will here the chorus of people that claim spring training numbers mean nothing, but if that is true how can you ever have 2 players fight a for a single job during ST. Plus Leake's numbers have been never been good and are declining.
    Plenty of us argue every year that you shouldn't ever have two players fight for a single job during spring training because it is just spring training and 15 innings of 50 at bats doesn't tell us anything of value, especially when we probably have hundreds of past innings or 1000+ at bats to look at to tell us what the guy actually is.

  12. #161
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Teams that use spring training numbers as the primarty deciding factor in determining who wins a spot over another player are teams that aren't sucessful in the long run.

    IMOHOYAWTY
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  13. #162
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    BTW, xFIP wasn't included because it innapropriately makes Leake's numbers look better by removing a serious flaw-his consistent tendency to give up too many homers. For those who want to argue Leake is Doug Fister the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.
    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Not saying Leake is Fister, but I imagine these numbers are skewed a bit by the fact Leake has pitched in Cincy and Fister has pitched in Seattle and Detroit.
    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not nearly as much as intuition would suggest.....
    Just to pull at the thread a little bit... since the difference between FIP and xFIP is the normalization of HR/FB rate, presumably to strip out park differences and luck... do you have a problem with normalizing HR/FB rate in general or just when it's applied to certain people?

    For what it's worth, given Leake's career home/road splits, which are pretty stark and primarily driven by HR/9, I can see the argument for saying he's not well-suited to be a starter here but he'd be solid in a lot of other places.
    Not all who wander are lost

  14. #163
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Teams that use spring training numbers as the primarty deciding factor in determining who wins a spot over another player are teams that aren't sucessful in the long run.

    IMOHOYAWTY
    Depends on the spot. Starting CF, #3 guy in the rotation - I'd have to see some drastic failure in ST to get me to deviate from my plans.

    Utility player, 7th man in the pen - I can see going with whomever has the hot hand (and then shuffling when and if he cools off).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #164
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    Teams arent reluctant to give up a first round pick.
    You have no basis for this comment. Regardless, you are likely wrong. I wouldn't state things like this as fact, because I'd say it is very easy to say that many teams wouldn't sign him for 1 yr at 1 mil because of the draft pick.

  16. #165
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Arrogant was a bad choice of words. Naive is a better one.

    Who is playing defense, and where there are positioning themselves absolutely effects the outcome of every pitch. The shift is an w treme example, but it makes the point quite clearly. When a shift is on, the pitcher chooses different pitches, and the batter adjusts his approach. The same is true to a lesser extent for all defenses.

    Like I said, no pitcher has full control over anything. Everything is team dependent. It's all just a matter of degree.
    And we know that pitchers control their peripherals to a much greater degree than they control the outcome of a batted ball and arguing that ERA is a better indicator of who a pitcher was than his peripherals doesn't jive as a result.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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