Chapman to bullpen now official

[jojo]

Just to pull at the thread a little bit... since the difference between FIP and xFIP is the normalization of HR/FB rate, presumably to strip out park differences and luck... do you have a problem with normalizing HR/FB rate in general or just when it's applied to certain people?

Normalizing for HR/FB assumes that on average a pitcher's HR/FB rate will regress back to the population mean. When there is reason to consider that a specific pitcher's HR/FB rate won't be equivalent to the league average, it's not appropriate to normalize his numbers as if it would.

Leake has consistently given up gopher balls at rates higher than "average" so quoting his xFIP is likely misleading.

[westofyou]

You have no basis for this comment. Regardless, you are likely wrong. I wouldn't state things like this as fact, because I'd say it is very easy to say that many teams wouldn't sign him for 1 yr at 1 mil because of the draft pick.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/3/2...brewers-royals

The Kansas City Royals have no interest in Lohse, while the Milwaukee Brewers do not want to surrender their 17th-overall pick in the upcoming MLB Draft. Brewers general manager Doug Melvin attributes this to Cole Hamels -- selected 17th overall in 2002 -- and CC Sabathia - taken 20th overall in '98.

There had been talk of the Cincinnati Reds' interest in Lohse, but GM Walt Jocketty told reporters -- including John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer -- that the team can't afford the right-hander.

Agreed, 34 year old Lohse might not be worth the pick to some

[dougdirt]

Just to pull at the thread a little bit... since the difference between FIP and xFIP is the normalization of HR/FB rate, presumably to strip out park differences and luck... do you have a problem with normalizing HR/FB rate in general or just when it's applied to certain people?

For what it's worth, given Leake's career home/road splits, which are pretty stark and primarily driven by HR/9, I can see the argument for saying he's not well-suited to be a starter here but he'd be solid in a lot of other places.

I think it works with a lot of guys, but not everyone. Leake for example has the 5th worst HR/FB rate in the Majors since he debuted for pitchers with at least 240 innings (set there to avoid full time relievers). To correct his HR rate to normal probably doesn't work so well given that he is among the worst in baseball at giving up home runs when guys put the ball in the air against him. GABP is probably at play some there, but it isn't solely to blame. Arroyo finds himself at #13 on the list of 160 people to make the criteria, but Leake is nearly 20% higher than Arroyo is. Leake is 32% higher than Homer Bailey and 90% higher than Cueto.

[lollipopcurve]

Arroyo finds himself at #13 on the list of 160 people to make the criteria, but Leake is nearly 20% higher than Arroyo is.

Yet Arroyo led the majors in HRs allowed very recently -- and them cut the number of HRs he allowed by about 50%, if I remember correctly. Leake is going to learn from experience. Smart pitcher. To say "he is what he is" is undervaluing what he can do with his head, IMO.

[dougdirt]

Yet Arroyo led the majors in HRs allowed very recently -- and them cut the number of HRs he allowed by about 50%, if I remember correctly. Leake is going to learn from experience. Smart pitcher. To say "he is what he is" is undervaluing what he can do with his head, IMO.

Arroyo gives up more fly balls than Leake though, so his HR rate will reflect that. In 2011, Arroyo clearly wasn't healthy. He had a his lowest GB rate since 2007. His HR/FB was also the highest of his career, but again, we know that he wasn't really healthy that year either. Similar FB rate, similar HR/FB rate as previous years, sans 2011. 2011 was just one of those years where a guy wasn't healthy.

[Trajinous]

Leake is still a better #5 starter than most teams and only 25. He can still learn and improve. It's great that Mini-Arroyo has Arroyo to learn from for another year.

[Kc61]

Leake has a low walk rate and relatively low K rate. This type of pitcher gives up a lot of batted balls in play. In a given year, if the breaks don't go his way, he'll give up a lot of hits. He did last season.

Such a pitcher CANNOT give up 26 homers in a season.

The entire value of such a pitcher is erasing baserunners on DPs, getting a lot of routine outs, using his defense to get outs. He may give up baserunners, but his low walk rate and ground ball abilities will keep things under control.

Unless he allows a bunch of homers.

This is a tendency that must end or Mike will have to go to a different type ballpark to succeed.

If Mike starts the season continuing his rate of homers allowed, the argument to make Chapman a starter continues to get much stronger.

Arroyo is much more of a fly ball pitcher. That's bad in Cincy, but it also can be good. Pop ups, routine flies, are automatic outs. He has different challenges IMO.

[traderumor]

Leake is still a better #5 starter than most teams and only 25. He can still learn and improve. It's great that Mini-Arroyo has Arroyo to learn from for another year.

The only similarity I see to Arroyo is soft tosser. He does not have a dominant pitch, Arroyo does (curve), nor has he seemed to be as smart a pitcher as Arroyo.

[kaldaniels]

The only similarity I see to Arroyo is soft tosser. He does not have a dominant pitch, Arroyo does (curve), nor has he seemed to be as smart a pitcher as Arroyo.

I'm guessing Arroyo wasn't viewed as smart back in the early 2000's. For a young pitcher Leake is incredibly crafty. But to the larger point I do view him as a solid fifth starter until he proves otherwise.

[Kc61]

It's official, Chapman to close. Leake in rotation. Twitter, etc.

[dougdirt]

I really don't agree with the move, but I will admit that I am glad it is over.

I will always wonder "what if?" though.

[kaldaniels]

That's a shame. But as mentioned what's done is done.

To have been a fly on the wall.....

[Tom Servo]

Lame.

[redsfandan]

I'm disappointed. VERY disappointed.

But, at least the suspense is over. Time to move on.

[Trajinous]

It's official, Chapman to close. Leake in rotation. Twitter, etc.

Link? Source? Don't believe it til I see one.