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Thread: Chapman to bullpen now official

  1. #121
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    He was a batting tee last season and somehow even more dreadful in the postseason. In order to be effective, he has to dial his velocity back to a level where he doesn't miss bats, and he lacks anything resembling an out pitch.

    ZIPS has him as a 4.50+ ERA pitcher in '13, and I think they're being generous. The fact that he's better than Joey Hamilton or Jimmy Haynes is really irrelevant to the greater discussion of his value.
    His postseason consisted of 4.1 innings, so holding that as an argument against him being effective is a little shortsighted imo. That could just as easily be variance as it is poor performance.

    Furthermore, While ZIPS does have him at 4.59 for a projected 2013 ERA, that is the only projection system that has him above even 4.20. Using ZIPS while ignoring the other projections feels like cherry picking to me.

    Code:
    PROJECTION ERA FIP
    Steamer 3.96 3.83
    James 4.15 4.38
    Oliver 3.84 4.03
    ZIPS 4.59 4.42
    Oddly, ZIPS has him down for the highest WAR of any projection system, and pegs him for the highest K rate of the bunch. All projections other than Steamer have Leake as a full-time, ~170 IP starter.

    I guess I agree that Leake isn't a guy who is a lock-down ace, but I disagree that he is "replace me immediately" level bad as a starting pitcher. I saw plenty of those in years past, and see plenty of them on other teams' rosters. Leake doesn't fit that bill even remotely.
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  4. #122
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    They owe it to him and baseball... though he wants to stay in the pen?

    Torches and pitchforks, torches and pitchforks.
    Ditto

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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    He was a batting tee last season and somehow even more dreadful in the postseason. In order to be effective, he has to dial his velocity back to a level where he doesn't miss bats, and he lacks anything resembling an out pitch.

    ZIPS has him as a 4.50+ ERA pitcher in '13, and I think they're being generous. The fact that he's better than Joey Hamilton or Jimmy Haynes is really irrelevant to the greater discussion of his value.
    Leake was #37 in the NL (#70 in the MLB) in WAR last year.

    That doesn't scream batting tee to me, when it would place him in the middle of the #3 starter group.

    Why would a 4.50+ projection be generous, when his lifetime ERA, FIP and xFIP are all lower than that, and his actual ERA last year was only slightly higher than 4.50.

    Is he great? Surely not. But he isn't a black hole either.

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  7. #124
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    This "feud" is still only based on how strongly Dusty feels about having his own "perfect world" be reality and fighting for it. He may like Chapman better as closer, but that doesn't mean if he is overruled by the GM/FO that he will pout and sabotage. Guys disagree in principal with their bosses all the time and still do what they're told and do their jobs well.
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  9. #125
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    This "feud" is still only based on how strongly Dusty feels about having his own "perfect world" be reality and fighting for it. He may like Chapman better as closer, but that doesn't mean if he is overruled by the GM/FO that he will pout and sabotage. Guys disagree in principal with their bosses all the time and still do what they're told and do their jobs well.
    I've said it before, but I don't blame Dusty one bit. I disagree with him, strongly, but he has been 100% consistent throughout the whole Chapman situation.
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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I've said it before, but I don't blame Dusty one bit. I disagree with him, strongly, but he has been 100% consistent throughout the whole Chapman situation.
    And I totally get it from his perspective too -- "Marshall in the 7th, Broxton in the 8th, Chapman in the 9th" makes managing tremendously easy for Dusty.

    In his mind, it's worth having to out-hit the opposition 1 out of every 5 days in order to preserve that easy gameplan on a nightly basis.
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    And I totally get it from his perspective too -- "Marshall in the 7th, Broxton in the 8th, Chapman in the 9th" makes managing tremendously easy for Dusty.

    In his mind, it's worth having to out-hit the opposition 1 out of every 5 days in order to preserve that easy gameplan on a nightly basis.
    It also saves him from facing a lot of awkward situations during the transition. During the transitional starts that Chapman will need to begin the year, how does that change the bullpen setup? Having the longman come out an additional fifth game can tie your hands as a manager, especially when you've got a command guy like LeCure expected to follow up Chapman. It also means he doesn't have to go against Chapman's opinion, send a perfectly serviceable or risk tarnish his legacy by "ruining another pitcher," as Cubs fans would say.

    It's easy to see from Chapman's perspective as well. Let's be honest, say you can make $12 million a year pitching relief for the rest of your life. Sure, the chance of being the next Randy Johnson is there, but you could also be a total washout and unemployed in a still relatively foreign country by age 30, with no family to speak of. Would you risk that kind of paycheck?

    Yet at the end of the day, it's all about the investment. Chapman's deal is either great value on a closer, or potentially one of the best international free agent contracts of all time if he's a starter. There's a definite risk/reward to it, but Walt's job is to crunch the money and have the best team he can get. A guy like Leake can always be traded.

  13. #128
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    The Mike Leake "is or isn't" argument really needs context.

    Here is Leake compared to the NL average starter from 2010-2012:

    Code:
    10' -'12	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave    	7.04	2.92	45.0	4.01	3.98
    Leake	        6.03	2.38	48.9	4.23	4.43
    Here is Leake's 2012 compared to the average NL starter in 2012:

    Code:
    					
    2012	K/9	BB/9	GB% 	ERA	FIP
    NL ave	7.28	2.81	45.4	4.04	3.97
    Leake	5.83	2.06	48.9	4.58	4.42
    Putting Leake in context indicates he's been about 10 runs worse than average per 200 IP (i.e. 1 WAR below average) based upon his peripherals. He has below average velocity and above average contact rates (or below average "miss bat" rates). The biggest pluses he's shown so far? He can throw strikes and doesn't have much in the way of platoon splits. He has limited trade value as AL teams wouldn't likely bite. That's a back end starter. Remove the influence of the Reds defense from behind him and I seriously doubt this conversation would even be had by fans.

    BTW, xFIP wasn't included because it innapropriately makes Leake's numbers look better by removing a serious flaw-his consistent tendency to give up too many homers. For those who want to argue Leake is Doug Fister the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.

    Thats the context of what Mike Leake has been and is.... If one wants to argue that Leake will be something dramatically different going forward, that's a different argument and one is welcome to have at it.
    Last edited by jojo; 03-22-2013 at 09:08 AM.
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  15. #129
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    http://mlb.si.com/2013/03/21/aroldis.../?sct=uk_wr_a1

    Furthermore, Leake’s work has drawn some positive attention this spring. Earlier this week ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted, “Talked to scouts who are raving about work of Mike Leake this spring, about how he’s commanding four different pitches, throwing 92-93 mph.” Similarly, last week Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal wrote that Leake was working in the 88-92 mph range and threw four pitches for strikes.

    • Chapman’s limited arsenal. There’s no dispute about Chapman’s awe-inspiring velocity. As I noted in our Power Week feature earlier this month, he holds the major league record for the fastest recorded pitch, with a 105.1 mph heater back in September 2010, and more pitches in the triple-digit range than any other NL hurler in each of the past three years, including that year’s abbreviated debut; his 484 over the last three years are 174 more than the runner up. According to the PitchF/X data at Baseball Prospectus, his average fastball velocity of 98.8 mph, is third among all relievers with at least 1,000 pitches since 2007.

    Man cannot live by fastball alone, however. During his brief major league career, Chapman has thrown the heater 85 percent of the time and his slider 14 percent of the time, with just five change-ups mixed in there in three years
    Interesting article that makes some pretty good points. I would love to see Chapman start the year out in the rotation, but I will not be bringing my pitchfork to GABP if he's not.
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    the reality is that Leake is Doug Fister if Doug Fister suddenly started giving up 30 more homers every 485 IP.
    Not saying Leake is Fister, but I imagine these numbers are skewed a bit by the fact Leake has pitched in Cincy and Fister has pitched in Seattle and Detroit.
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by thatcoolguy_22 View Post
    http://mlb.si.com/2013/03/21/aroldis.../?sct=uk_wr_a1



    Interesting article that makes some pretty good points. I would love to see Chapman start the year out in the rotation, but I will not be bringing my pitchfork to GABP if he's not.
    Nor I. While Chapman's spring has been promising, it's just that: spring training. A 2 (mostly 1) pitch arsenal never really cut it for anyone other than Randy Johnson over the course of the long season... that splitter he's been developing is going to be key to his success if he starts.

  18. #132
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Not saying Leake is Fister, but I imagine these numbers are skewed a bit by the fact Leake has pitched in Cincy and Fister has pitched in Seattle and Detroit.
    Not nearly as much as intuition would suggest.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  19. #133
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Not nearly as much as intuition would suggest.....
    Just noting that it's a factor that has not been reckoned.
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  20. #134
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's not even close to what I said.

    If Chapman isn't the closer, then Marshall is. Marshall is facing difference hitters in different situations than he did last season. That means Arredondo is probably in Marshall's role, also facing different hitters in different situations. LeCure is probably now in Arredondo's role, and Ondrusek in LeCure's and Simon's in Ondrusek's, etc.

    They aren't facing the same hitters in the same situation, so we don't know how they will do. I'm not saying they will do worse, or better, just that we can't assume that they will produce the same numbers in their new roles.
    Marshall is actually a great example.
    He said that he thrives better in a setup role vs a closer because the setup role gives him regularly scheduled work which keeps him sharper. As a closer, you can go a relatively long span of being inactive. It seems like we have some evidence from last year to support what he said.. And here's the big point.. Even if Marshall's statement can't be proven statistically true, he believes it. If he believes it, it probably impacts his performance/comfort level.

    Not all pitchers are like Marshall, of course, but that's one example to support your point.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  21. #135
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman to bullpen not official.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Aroldis Chapman faced 276 batters. Sean Marshall faced 256 of them. The 9% between the two of them accounts for 1 batter per week from the 3-4-5-6 spots combined if applied to Chapman's 276 batters faced. Yes, it is a difference, but the difference is rather marginal.
    Another way to look at it though is that if Chapman goes to the rotation, either Leake or Parra takes his place. That's a pretty big dropoff, especially since Leake did not thrive in the BP for the brief time he was put there.

    It's a domino effect.. When Cordero was added, it was an expensive add, but it was nice to slide everyone down one order in the pecking order.. Removing Chapman does the opposite..

    I'm kind of fine with Chapman starting or relieving. I think it's a tougher choice than we all would like to believe. I know most folks have already formed their opinion, and that's fine
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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