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Thread: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

  1. #76
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I take issue with Edd Roush's comment that comparing Yorman's k numbers last year at Bakersfield to his numbers this year is misleading. What better control is available than what he did at the same level from year to year--if what one is trying to assess is his progress?
    Don't you believe the better control is the 1,055 PAs he had before going to Bakersfield rather than the 94 he had last year in Bakersfield? Why would we want to disregard a sample more than 11x larger for one that is less than 1/5 of a season? Should we forget what a player has done at previous levels when considering their "progress" at one level?

    Certainly, what Yorman did last year in Bakersfield matters, even if it was only 94 PAs. That being said, Yorman struck out 24.5% of his plate appearances before coming to Bakersfield in a very substantial sample size. Now that he is striking out 27.6% of the time, I am not going to say he is progressing in his ability to avoid strikeouts, even if he was horrendous at striking out in Bakersfield in 2012 during a whopping 94 PAs.

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  3. #77
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Clearly the best control--if the question is whether he is making progress--is his record at High A ball last year versus that of this year. Of course the other data are relevant, but there's surely a conundrum in your understanding of his K stats from last year. He struck out roughly 40% in his admittedly limited PA's at Bakersfield, then struck out only 24.5% at Dayton. How do we interpret that? Is it that he suddenly became better in Dayton than he was in Bakersfield? Or is it better understood as a kind of measure of the difference between the leagues, particularly for a very young player?--i.e. last year he was the level of player who will strike out 25% in low A ball but 40% in advanced A. This year he seems to be becoming the kind of player who will only strike out about 30% at High A ball; that still looks like progress to me, though as I said in my original post, he's got a considerable way still to go and it's not at all clear he can do it. Or, to put this another way, if he were at Dayton this year, I'd expect him to strike out significantly less than the 25% he did last year. That's because he's a better player now than he was last year and ahead of the players at that level.

  4. #78
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Clearly the best control--if the question is whether he is making progress--is his record at High A ball last year versus that of this year. Of course the other data are relevant, but there's surely a conundrum in your understanding of his K stats from last year. He struck out roughly 40% in his admittedly limited PA's at Bakersfield, then struck out only 24.5% at Dayton. How do we interpret that? Is it that he suddenly became better in Dayton than he was in Bakersfield? Or is it better understood as a kind of measure of the difference between the leagues, particularly for a very young player?--i.e. last year he was the level of player who will strike out 25% in low A ball but 40% in advanced A. This year he seems to be becoming the kind of player who will only strike out about 30% at High A ball; that still looks like progress to me, though as I said in my original post, he's got a considerable way still to go and it's not at all clear he can do it. Or, to put this another way, if he were at Dayton this year, I'd expect him to strike out significantly less than the 25% he did last year. That's because he's a better player now than he was last year and ahead of the players at that level.
    If he struck out 24.5% in Dayton last year (it was actually 22.1%) in a meaningful sample (250+ PAs, which he had) and then he struck out 40% of the time in another meaningful sample (250+ PAs), I would agree with you. However, Yorman only had 94 PAs last year to show his ability in Bakersfield. It is very likely that his astronomical strikeout rate in Bakersfield is due much more to random variation than his true skill level. The step up from Dayton to Bakersfield has not been too drastic in the past for other legitimate prospects. The high strikeout rate is much more attributable to the sample sample than his true skill level in Bakersfield in 2012.

    For the record, I am not saying that Yorman has regressed as a player overall. Just that he has not improved drastically (if at all) in his ability to avoid strikeouts in 2013.

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    So Yorman stirkes out roughly 40% at Bakersfield in 2012, then moves to Dayton and strikes out 22.1--but this is attributable to sample sizes and not to differences in the level of the leagues? That seems to me highly improbable. On your view, it would seem to me the organization simply made the mistake of not leaving him in Bakersfield, when, with more PA's, his "true skill level" (a highly reified concept, by the way) would have emerged. In fact, I don't know why they didn't just promote him to Pensacola or even to Cincinnati, where, with enough PA's, that normalized level of his true skills would have eventually come out. I suggest the history is actually much simpler. Last year he was overpromoted to Bakersfield and the FO got him out of there before the mismatch set him back so badly he may never have recovered. This year at Bakersfield he is no longer overmatched. That's what I call progress. In fact, if you look at his history at Billings and at Dayton, similar patterns can be seen.

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    So Yorman stirkes out roughly 40% at Bakersfield in 2012, then moves to Dayton and strikes out 22.1--but this is attributable to sample sizes and not to differences in the level of the leagues? That seems to me highly improbable.
    It was less than a 100 at bats. Seems equally improbable that one minor jump in competition would double his strikeout rate. Without watching him, I think it's hard to say that he's made any major improvements outside of a power boost that may be tied to that tiny park in Bakersfield.

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    It was less than a 100 at bats. Seems equally improbable that one minor jump in competition would double his strikeout rate. Without watching him, I think it's hard to say that he's made any major improvements outside of a power boost that may be tied to that tiny park in Bakersfield.
    I wouldn't characterize the jump from Dayton to Bakersfield as a "minor jump," particularly for a then 19 year old.

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Actually Yorman's "power boost" at Bakersfield makes his obvious progress even more dramatic. Last year in his admittedly limited AB's at Bakersfield (limited by the fact he was not ready for the level), he had 4 doubles in 90 AB's or one every 22.5 AB's and his extra base hits as a percentage of his hits came in at 28.6. This year he has 19 doubles, 3 triples, and 9 home runs or 31 extra base hits in 247 AB's, roughly one in 8 times to the plate, and a very strong 31 of 61 hits for extra bases (just over 50%). This seems to me really a very high level of improvement. Some of it may be attributable to the ballpark at Bakersfield (though again, for purposes of control, I compare Bakersfield stats to Bakersfield stats), but it seems to me likely that if that park increases home runs, it probably also suppresses doubles (as is often the case). Also his percentage of hits as extra base hits is vastly better than anybody else's on the team.

  9. #83
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    He is first in the Reds minors in 33 xbh. Quickly climbing to an .800 OPS.

  10. #84
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    19braves77 is reporting on the Minor League Transactions thread that Yorman has been bumped up to AA. I will be very interested to see how he can hold up in a more pitcher-friendly environment. I also wonder if his status on the 40-man roster is making the Reds push him along faster than a player with similar results to date.

  11. #85
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    19braves77 is reporting on the Minor League Transactions thread that Yorman has been bumped up to AA. I will be very interested to see how he can hold up in a more pitcher-friendly environment. I also wonder if his status on the 40-man roster is making the Reds push him along faster than a player with similar results to date.
    Opening Ervin a spot at Dayton? Either way, excited to see how he handles the jump.

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    I also wonder if his status on the 40-man roster is making the Reds push him along faster than a player with similar results to date.
    No question it's a factor.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Opening Ervin a spot at Dayton? Either way, excited to see how he handles the jump.
    I was thinking - maybe opening a spot for Winker in Bakersfield? (Which in turn could open a spot for Ervin in Dayton, ahem)
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    I was thinking - maybe opening a spot for Winker in Bakersfield? (Which in turn could open a spot for Ervin in Dayton, ahem)
    Possible. I would also not be surprised if they moved Arias up. This is his second year in Dayton, and he's been hitting well for a while now.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #89
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Possible. I would also not be surprised if they moved Arias up. This is his second year in Dayton, and he's been hitting well for a while now.
    For right now Joe Terry has been moved up to Bakersfield.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

  16. #90
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    Re: The dawn of Yorman Rodriguez?

    There's already an overload of outfielders in Bakersfield: Waldrop, Silva, Duran, Selsky. They all need PT.


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