Lohse to Brewers

[westofyou]

Yes

Cardinals draft factory continues, lol

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...eri-nl-central

If the deal goes through, the Brewers will forfeit the no. 17 pick in this summer's draft, losing about $2 million in slot money in the process (the Cardinals would gain the no. 28 pick and about $1.65 million in slot money). Milwaukee will live with that sacrifice.

[Sea Ray]

Sounds like St Louis played that beautifully as much as it pains me to say that

[757690]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...eri-nl-central

If the deal goes through, the Brewers will forfeit the no. 17 pick in this summer's draft, losing about $2 million in slot money in the process (the Cardinals would gain the no. 28 pick and about $1.65 million in slot money). Milwaukee will live with that sacrifice.

Unless Lohse completely collapses this season, he's worth way more than that in trade value at the trading deadline. It's a good value deal for the Brewers.

[westofyou]

Unless Lohse completely collapses this season, he's worth way more than that in trade value at the trading deadline. It's a good value deal for the Brewers.

They can't deal him until next year though

[757690]

They can't deal him until next year though

Part of the new CBA? I thought it was May 1st. Thanks for the info.

Still, losing a #17 draft pick isn't a huge loss, about a 50/50 crap shoot it amounts to anything. The Brewers biggest cost will be the money Lohse gets this year, but if they want, they can get some talent for him in the offseason, especially with such an manageable contract.

[MikeThierry]

Part of the new CBA? I thought it was May 1st. Thanks for the info.

Still, losing a #17 draft pick isn't a huge loss, about a 50/50 crap shoot it amounts to anything. The Brewers biggest cost will be the money Lohse gets this year, but if they want, they can get some talent for him in the offseason, especially with such an manageable contract.

You're right about the draft being a crap shoot but the way the Cards have been drafting the past couple of years, having multiple first round picks is good. Their first round pick last year Wacha, for example, is close to being MLB ready right now. Miller will make an impact this year as a starter and Wong just needs some seasoning and will probably take 2B full time next year or even half way through this year.

I get a sense that the draft has become more and more important now in MLB. With the advanced stats and sabermetrics, there is more certainty about top draft picks now than there were even 10 years ago.

EDIT: The Cards just named Shelby Miller as the 5th starter. I wasn't sure until now.

[kaldaniels]

For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

Gotta agree to disagree.

[MikeThierry]

For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

Gotta agree to disagree.

I think that their first two starters are representative but there is a drop off after that. The Reds and Cardinals have quality arms 1-5 in their rotation. Edwin Jackson is ok but he's far too inconsistent for my liking and their 4/5 starters wouldn't even start on the Reds or Cardinals. Plus, I think Cueto and Wainwright are all better options than Garza is. I don't see what fangraph sees there.

[757690]

You're right about the draft being a crap shoot but the way the Cards have been drafting the past couple of years, having multiple first round picks is good. Their first round pick last year Wacha, for example, is close to being MLB ready right now. Miller will make an impact this year as a starter and Wong just needs some seasoning and will probably take 2B full time next year or even half way through this year.

I get a sense that the draft has become more and more important now in MLB. With the advanced stats and sabermetrics, there is more certainty about top draft picks now than there were even 10 years ago.

EDIT: The Cards just named Shelby Miller as the 5th starter. I wasn't sure until now.

From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

Scott Elbert
Josh Fields
Phil Hughes
Blake DeWitt
Chris Volstad
John Mayberry
Cliff Pennington
Jacob Ellsbury
Matt Garza
Colby Rasmus
Taylor Greene
Kyle Drabek
Ian Kennedy
Daniel Bard
Pete Kozma
Rick Porcello
Ben Revere
Brett Lawrie
Ike Davis
Andrew Cashner
Casey Kelly
Shelby Miller
Mike Trout

Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see

[dougdirt]

For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

Gotta agree to disagree.

I think it is due to the poor projections for Arroyo, which are penalizing him for his 2011 with mono, without adjusting for him clearly pitching while not healthy. So his terrible 2011 is pulling down his projections quite a bit.

[MikeThierry]

From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

Scott Elbert
Josh Fields
Phil Hughes
Blake DeWitt
Chris Volstad
John Mayberry
Cliff Pennington
Jacob Ellsbury
Matt Garza
Colby Rasmus
Taylor Greene
Kyle Drabek
Ian Kennedy
Daniel Bard
Pete Kozma
Rick Porcello
Ben Revere
Brett Lawrie
Ike Davis
Andrew Cashner
Casey Kelly
Shelby Miller
Mike Trout

Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see

You're right here. I was looking at the impact of the 1st round draft as a whole instead of #15 on. Even if you look at 1-15 though, there seems to be more success rate or impact rate in today's baseball than there was 10-15 years ago.

[MikeThierry]

I think it is due to the poor projections for Arroyo, which are penalizing him for his 2011 with mono, without adjusting for him clearly pitching while not healthy. So his terrible 2011 is pulling down his projections quite a bit.

Even if Arroyo regresses, I still think it's a better option than the Cubs 4 and 5 starter.

[dougdirt]

From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

Scott Elbert
Josh Fields
Phil Hughes
Blake DeWitt
Chris Volstad
John Mayberry
Cliff Pennington
Jacob Ellsbury
Matt Garza
Colby Rasmus
Taylor Greene
Kyle Drabek
Ian Kennedy
Daniel Bard
Pete Kozma
Rick Porcello
Ben Revere
Brett Lawrie
Ike Davis
Andrew Cashner
Casey Kelly
Shelby Miller
Mike Trout

Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see

Of course, if you were drafted in 2009 out of high school, you are 21 or 22 right now. That is the year we drafted Billy Hamilton. Not exactly a good data set to come to conclusions from.

[Tom Servo]

I wish the Reds had drafted Wacha, but I'm biased cause my dad went to Texas A&M.

[hebroncougar]

Jeff Suppan V 2.0