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Thread: Lohse to Brewers

  1. #16
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Yes

    Cardinals draft factory continues, lol
    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...eri-nl-central

    If the deal goes through, the Brewers will forfeit the no. 17 pick in this summer's draft, losing about $2 million in slot money in the process (the Cardinals would gain the no. 28 pick and about $1.65 million in slot money). Milwaukee will live with that sacrifice.

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  3. #17
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Sounds like St Louis played that beautifully as much as it pains me to say that

  4. #18
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...eri-nl-central

    If the deal goes through, the Brewers will forfeit the no. 17 pick in this summer's draft, losing about $2 million in slot money in the process (the Cardinals would gain the no. 28 pick and about $1.65 million in slot money). Milwaukee will live with that sacrifice.
    Unless Lohse completely collapses this season, he's worth way more than that in trade value at the trading deadline. It's a good value deal for the Brewers.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    REDREAD (03-25-2013)

  6. #19
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Unless Lohse completely collapses this season, he's worth way more than that in trade value at the trading deadline. It's a good value deal for the Brewers.
    They can't deal him until next year though

  7. #20
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    They can't deal him until next year though
    Part of the new CBA? I thought it was May 1st. Thanks for the info.

    Still, losing a #17 draft pick isn't a huge loss, about a 50/50 crap shoot it amounts to anything. The Brewers biggest cost will be the money Lohse gets this year, but if they want, they can get some talent for him in the offseason, especially with such an manageable contract.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #21
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Part of the new CBA? I thought it was May 1st. Thanks for the info.

    Still, losing a #17 draft pick isn't a huge loss, about a 50/50 crap shoot it amounts to anything. The Brewers biggest cost will be the money Lohse gets this year, but if they want, they can get some talent for him in the offseason, especially with such an manageable contract.
    You're right about the draft being a crap shoot but the way the Cards have been drafting the past couple of years, having multiple first round picks is good. Their first round pick last year Wacha, for example, is close to being MLB ready right now. Miller will make an impact this year as a starter and Wong just needs some seasoning and will probably take 2B full time next year or even half way through this year.

    I get a sense that the draft has become more and more important now in MLB. With the advanced stats and sabermetrics, there is more certainty about top draft picks now than there were even 10 years ago.

    EDIT: The Cards just named Shelby Miller as the 5th starter. I wasn't sure until now.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 03-25-2013 at 05:37 PM.
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  9. #22
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

    Gotta agree to disagree.

  10. #23
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

    Gotta agree to disagree.
    I think that their first two starters are representative but there is a drop off after that. The Reds and Cardinals have quality arms 1-5 in their rotation. Edwin Jackson is ok but he's far too inconsistent for my liking and their 4/5 starters wouldn't even start on the Reds or Cardinals. Plus, I think Cueto and Wainwright are all better options than Garza is. I don't see what fangraph sees there.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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  11. #24
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    You're right about the draft being a crap shoot but the way the Cards have been drafting the past couple of years, having multiple first round picks is good. Their first round pick last year Wacha, for example, is close to being MLB ready right now. Miller will make an impact this year as a starter and Wong just needs some seasoning and will probably take 2B full time next year or even half way through this year.

    I get a sense that the draft has become more and more important now in MLB. With the advanced stats and sabermetrics, there is more certainty about top draft picks now than there were even 10 years ago.

    EDIT: The Cards just named Shelby Miller as the 5th starter. I wasn't sure until now.
    From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

    Scott Elbert
    Josh Fields
    Phil Hughes
    Blake DeWitt
    Chris Volstad
    John Mayberry
    Cliff Pennington
    Jacob Ellsbury
    Matt Garza
    Colby Rasmus
    Taylor Greene
    Kyle Drabek
    Ian Kennedy
    Daniel Bard
    Pete Kozma
    Rick Porcello
    Ben Revere
    Brett Lawrie
    Ike Davis
    Andrew Cashner
    Casey Kelly
    Shelby Miller
    Mike Trout

    Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

    Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    For what it's worth fangraphs just projected the Cubs (as today's rosters stand) to have the best starters in the Central this year.

    Gotta agree to disagree.
    I think it is due to the poor projections for Arroyo, which are penalizing him for his 2011 with mono, without adjusting for him clearly pitching while not healthy. So his terrible 2011 is pulling down his projections quite a bit.

  13. #26
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

    Scott Elbert
    Josh Fields
    Phil Hughes
    Blake DeWitt
    Chris Volstad
    John Mayberry
    Cliff Pennington
    Jacob Ellsbury
    Matt Garza
    Colby Rasmus
    Taylor Greene
    Kyle Drabek
    Ian Kennedy
    Daniel Bard
    Pete Kozma
    Rick Porcello
    Ben Revere
    Brett Lawrie
    Ike Davis
    Andrew Cashner
    Casey Kelly
    Shelby Miller
    Mike Trout

    Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

    Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see

    You're right here. I was looking at the impact of the 1st round draft as a whole instead of #15 on. Even if you look at 1-15 though, there seems to be more success rate or impact rate in today's baseball than there was 10-15 years ago.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  14. #27
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think it is due to the poor projections for Arroyo, which are penalizing him for his 2011 with mono, without adjusting for him clearly pitching while not healthy. So his terrible 2011 is pulling down his projections quite a bit.
    Even if Arroyo regresses, I still think it's a better option than the Cubs 4 and 5 starter.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  15. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    From 2004-2009, 90 players were drafted in the first round after pick #15. Here are the ones that made the any impact in the majors:

    Scott Elbert
    Josh Fields
    Phil Hughes
    Blake DeWitt
    Chris Volstad
    John Mayberry
    Cliff Pennington
    Jacob Ellsbury
    Matt Garza
    Colby Rasmus
    Taylor Greene
    Kyle Drabek
    Ian Kennedy
    Daniel Bard
    Pete Kozma
    Rick Porcello
    Ben Revere
    Brett Lawrie
    Ike Davis
    Andrew Cashner
    Casey Kelly
    Shelby Miller
    Mike Trout

    Definitely some stars in there, but the odds are pretty high that a team will get anything useful out of a late draft pick, around 25%. Which is why your statement, "having multiple first round picks is good." is very true.

    Maybe we will see a better track record in the more recent drafts, but even if it's twice as good, it means only 50%. We'll see
    Of course, if you were drafted in 2009 out of high school, you are 21 or 22 right now. That is the year we drafted Billy Hamilton. Not exactly a good data set to come to conclusions from.

  16. #29
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    I wish the Reds had drafted Wacha, but I'm biased cause my dad went to Texas A&M.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  17. #30
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Lohse to Brewers

    Jeff Suppan V 2.0


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