Mesoraco makes team, Olivo down or gone

[reds44]

Hanigan is starting again today.

11 starts in 14 games for Hanigan.

Hanigan currently has a WAR of -0.4.

At what point does Mesoraco get more exposure?

Probably more than 14 games into a 162 game season.

[holster10]

You're right. Hanigan has rarely squared up on any balls this season. I'd love to see him grab some bench for 3 or 4 games so Mez can play but we know that isn't going to happen....unless he goes on the DL.

[Plus Plus]

Probably more than 14 games into a 162 game season.

It must be, since he hasn't been playing. But that's a pretty narrow way to look at it, and ignores every fact and analysis other than G/GS.

[reds44]

I don't think it's narrow way of looking at it. Somebody with more than 1,000 ABs of pretty acceptable production has earned more than 32 AB's before he starts losing playing time.

[alwaysawarrior]

I don't think it's narrow way of looking at it. Somebody with more than 1,000 ABs of pretty acceptable production has earned more than 32 AB's before he starts losing playing time.

I don't think anyone wants Hanigan sitting 80% of the time or anything as I believe you are suggesting. I would just like to see Mesoraco get to play more than once a week.

[dougdirt]

I don't think it's narrow way of looking at it. Somebody with more than 1,000 ABs of pretty acceptable production has earned more than 32 AB's before he starts losing playing time.

A top prospect at his position probably deserves a scenario where he should probably get 8 at bats in a 3 day span at some point in his career too. Mesoraco is still waiting for that one.

[reds44]

A top prospect at his position probably deserves a scenario where he should probably get 8 at bats in a 3 day span at some point in his career too. Mesoraco is still waiting for that one.

Mesoraco has shown nothing to deserve playing over Hanigan ever at the major league level. He hasn't been a better hitter. He's not a better defender. I have no problem with a team that is trying to win the World Series playing the better player (at this point) in their careers.

If Hanigan continues to suck, Mes will play more. If Mes hits well while he plays, he'll play more. This isn't hard.

[Plus Plus]

I don't think it's narrow way of looking at it. Somebody with more than 1,000 ABs of pretty acceptable production has earned more than 32 AB's before he starts losing playing time.

It ignores the fact that Hanigan has been trending downward for seasons, has been lost at the plate so far this year, and that there is a blue-chip prospect behind him. It ignores the fact that players with Hanigan's profile decline and decline quickly. His ISOp has gone from .128 in 2010 to .090 in 2011 to .068 in 2012. wOBA from .369 to .321 to .305. This isn't even including his horrific start to 2013.

So do you continue playing Hanigan ~80% of the time to get his numbers up? What do you do if they don't, or if he sits at the ~75 wRC+ mark?

At some point the catching situation needs to be looked at critically with trends and how players are performing in recent history. Right now it feels like it is being looked at as "Hanigan is starting Mesoraco is his backup," and given the profiles of these players right now, that seems like a potentially poor plan.

[Chip R]

I don't think anyone wants Hanigan sitting 80% of the time or anything as I believe you are suggesting. I would just like to see Mesoraco get to play more than once a week.

You did. He started twice last week.

[Brutus]

But isn't it symptomatic of small-power guys that once the bat speed starts to go, they fall off the cliff quickly? Hanigan (up to 2012) never had power, but had enough of a hit tool to be able to drive singles on balls in the zone if pitchers threw him strikes, and had a good enough eye to walk at a good rate.

Maybe his bat speed is finally slowing down, and the strikes that he was driving 2010-2012 are now resulting in poor or no contact. I don't have any evidence, and I don't think that any statistical conclusions can be made from 38 PAs or whatever, but I think and have thought that Hanigan would be a poor bet to equal or better his wOBA; he has been trending downward in the last few seasons offensively, and never had enough power to truly punish pitchers.

A lot of this is speculative, but I can pretty readily envision an objectively poor season from Hanigan given his profile as a player.

Aside- this doesn't mean I don't like Hanigan, because I really do. But at some point a player just runs out of gas. I hope 2013 isn't that time for Hanigan, but I think that it's worth discussing and analyzing if it could be.

The guy just put up nearly 3 wins of theoretical WAR last year. Those things are possible, but it's also possible that you're making assumptions off a 32 at-bat sample.

Given how valuable he was last year, I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

[Plus Plus]

Mesoraco has shown nothing to deserve playing over Hanigan ever at the major league level. He hasn't been a better hitter. He's not a better defender. I have no problem with a team that is trying to win the World Series playing the better player (at this point) in their careers.

If Hanigan continues to suck, Mes will play more. If Mes hits well while he plays, he'll play more. This isn't hard.

Mesoraco never got a chance to show anything to deserve playing over Hanigan, because he was never given anything resembling consistent playing time.

[mdccclxix]

Do we really need another pull hitter like Bruce in the lineup?

Yes, yes we do.

[reds44]

I've already said in this thread it's very possibly Hanigan just falls off a cliff production wise because of his lack of offensive talent. If that happens, well aren't the Reds lucky they have Mes?

[Plus Plus]

The guy just put up nearly 3 wins of theoretical WAR last year. Those things are possible, but it's also possible that you're making assumptions off a 32 at-bat sample.

Given how valuable he was last year, I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

A 3-year trend of offensive decline and a WAR based off of +11.2 FLD from Fangraphs in the year that you are discussing (where his wOBA was .305) doesn't need 37 PAs to support it, IMO. His offensive value in 2012 from the same site was -5.6, meaning almost his entire value as a player in this 2.7 WAR season came from the defensive side of the game, where we (think we) know that multiple years are needed to get *real* information about a player's defensive profile.

I'm not advocating releasing Hanigan, playing Mesoraco 80% of the time, or anything like that, but I think that playing a guy who is a potential offensive liability in a huge majority of games is a bad plan, given who is behind him.

[dougdirt]

Mesoraco has shown nothing to deserve playing over Hanigan ever at the major league level. He hasn't been a better hitter. He's not a better defender. I have no problem with a team that is trying to win the World Series playing the better player (at this point) in their careers.

If Hanigan continues to suck, Mes will play more. If Mes hits well while he plays, he'll play more. This isn't hard.

Last season Mesoraco never got 8 at bats in 3 days.

Hardly anyone is going to show something in a scenario like that.

Mesoraco has hit well this year. The hits aren't reflected, but I think we can all agree he is hitting the ball with absolute authority thus far can't we? Hanigan, I think we can all agree, hasn't hit the ball at all this year right?

So if now isn't the time in which you can get Mesoraco a start or three in a row, when is ever going to be the time to try and do it?