Cardinals sign Wainwright to Extension

[klw]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...ainwright.html

The Cardinals have agreed to a 5-year, $97.5MM extension with pitcher Adam Wainwright that covers the 2014-2018 seasons, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Wainwright, a 31-year-old right-hander, is represented by Aegis Sports Management. He was set to enter free agency next year as the top pitcher available on MLBTR's Tim Dierkes's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings.

They must be confident of his health going forward or of a revenue increase which makes the risk pretty low.

[MikeThierry]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...ainwright.html



They must be confident of his health going forward or of a revenue increase which makes the risk pretty low.

Probably both. They have a lot of young players with cost control for many years to come along with a ton of money coming off the books next year (something like 30-40 million). They're also going to be signing a long term TV contract in 2017 which will give them about 5-6 times more than what they're getting now. Plus the Cards were in between a rock and a hard place. If they let him walk, they would have been outbid by other teams so they probably had to overpay just slightly so he wouldn't reach free agency.

[HometownHero]

If the Cardinals don't hit on a good clip on their prospects they could get into some trouble before they get to a new TV deal.

A big portion of all the money they have opening up will get gobbled right back up in paying Wainwright and the other players who contracts increase and then playing our 6 arbitration cases next year unless they add more long term deals or let key players walk. And that doesn't even factor in if they want to bring back Mujica or Westbrook in 2014.

Then for 2015 they only have a sure 11M coming off the books but have half that accounted for in current contracts with a couple more key Arbitration players in Lynn and M Carpenter who both could end up asking for good money and would be inline to win their cases especially Lynn who has a 18 win year and a ASG appearance to impress them with if reached a hearing.

If the Cards do good this year a lot of it will be on the guys looking to get paid soon, if they do bad they may have to turn to FA or trade's which will hurt the cause long term.

[PuffyPig]

Then for 2015 they only have a sure 11M coming off the books but have half that accounted for in current contracts with a couple more key Arbitration players in Lynn and M Carpenter who both could end up asking for good money and would be inline to win their cases especially Lynn who has a 18 win year and a ASG appearance to impress them with if reached a hearing.

Firstly,how can you predict that two players would be inclined to win arbitration cases two years in the future when you have no idea how well they have performed and what they are asking for? The two variables that make up a case are unknown?

And secondly, like any long term signing these days, two much money and too many years. But whatcha gonna do, let your best pitcher walk? You gotta plug your nose and sign the contract if you want to compete these days.

[HometownHero]

Firstly,how can you predict that two players would be inclined to win arbitration cases two years in the future when you have no idea how well they have performed and what they are asking for? The two variables that make up a case are unknown?

And secondly, like any long term signing these days, two much money and too many years. But whatcha gonna do, let your best pitcher walk? You gotta plug your nose and sign the contract if you want to compete these days.

Based on stats used in the cases, Lynn has an All-Star game and a 18 win season that give him a early advantage over the Cardinals he would have to completely tank to wash that out and if he tanks it will set them back needed to sign FA. Its the same reason why Freese asked for the moon and forced the Cardinals to settle for higher than they wanted because he would have won his case if they went to mediation.

Like I said before the guys who are going to make or break them are the group who will be looking for money in the next couple years.

I don't blame them for locking him up but they are paying him for what he was not what he is now and it has a chance to burn them long term if he doesn't find his pre-TJ FB again. He's bound to get hit by the innings load last year after missing all of 2011 so he will be 32.5 when this 5 year deal kicks in likely 3 years removed form his best stuff.

[PuffyPig]

Based on stats used in the cases, Lynn has an All-Star game and a 18 win season that give him a early advantage over the Cardinals he would have to completely tank to wash that out and if he tanks it will set them back needed to sign FA. Its the same reason why Freese asked for the moon and forced the Cardinals to settle for higher than they wanted because he would have won his case if they went to mediation.

You missed my point entirely.

There are two essential variables that determine whether a player or a team will win in arbiration.

How much each has asked for, and what the stats of the player are.

You've indicated that certain players are sure to win their arbitration cases in a few years, and, for the most part, neither of those variables have been established yet.

It's not as simple as players having good years winning in arbitration. It's based on what those players are asking for. A pitcher could win the CYA, but if he asks for $25M in his first year of arbitration, he will lose.

[Tom Servo]

I think St. Louis would have been better off flipping him this offseason. While I have little doubt he will continue to be a valuable starting pitcher he is 31 and I don't think he is going to return to 2009/2010 levels going forward. Then again it's the Cardinals so watch him get even better for no apparent reason.

[kaldaniels]

I think St. Louis would have been better off flipping him this offseason. While I have little doubt he will continue to be a valuable starting pitcher he is 31 and I don't think he is going to return to 2009/2010 levels going forward. Then again it's the Cardinals so watch him get even better for no apparent reason.

He was set to be a free agent after this year, so flipping after the season (I assume you aren't thinking of a comp pick) wasn't an option.

The Cards were in a bit of a pickle with this however, had he been 28 or 29 it would have been an easier decision. They paid retail for him, and they have the money, so it isn't horrible. It will all depend on how he ages.

But given his production history and his current age, I have a feeling he won't live up to 97,000,000 over those 5 years. Unless salaries explode even more (which is very well possible) he'll have to pretty much have his most productive 5 year period in his career for him to "live up to it".

[MikeThierry]

Hometown, I see what you're saying but at the same time, I don't know why Cardinals fans worry so much about the Cardinals expense. The organization has presented this tale to the fandom that they're this mid-market team that's cash strapped. St. Louis fans have bought into this "woe is me" argument from management. However, just look at the recent Forbes annual franchise evaluation of MLB teams. The team had a revenue last season of 239 million, even with their god awful pitiful TV contract. Their payroll is 134 million (I'm assuming that's including all minor league players as well as big league players). They have a miniscule operating income of 19 million. This team is not going into the poor house anytime soon. Now that they've almost paid down the new stadium that profit stream will continue to grow due to not allocating revenue towards it. Even with arbitration cases coming up, they've locked up most of their core long term. What the Cardinals spend on their elite players doesn't make me stay up at night, I'll just say that.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/st-louis-cardinals/

[MikeThierry]

By the way, I'm looking at that list and I didn't realize that Steinbrenner bought the Yankees for only 10 million. They're now worth 2.3 billion. That may be one of the best investments in the history of sports.

[*BaseClogger*]

By the way, I'm looking at that list and I didn't realize that Steinbrenner bought the Yankees for only 10 million. They're now worth 2.3 billion. That may be one of the best investments in the history of sports.

About as good as that investment they made in Babe Ruth 50 years earlier, eh?

[HometownHero]

Hometown, I see what you're saying but at the same time, I don't know why Cardinals fans worry so much about the Cardinals expense. The organization has presented this tale to the fandom that they're this mid-market team that's cash strapped. St. Louis fans have bought into this "woe is me" argument from management. However, just look at the recent Forbes annual franchise evaluation of MLB teams. The team had a revenue last season of 239 million, even with their god awful pitiful TV contract. Their payroll is 134 million (I'm assuming that's including all minor league players as well as big league players). They have a miniscule operating income of 19 million. This team is not going into the poor house anytime soon. Now that they've almost paid down the new stadium that profit stream will continue to grow due to not allocating revenue towards it. Even with arbitration cases coming up, they've locked up most of their core long term. What the Cardinals spend on their elite players doesn't make me stay up at night, I'll just say that.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/st-louis-cardinals/

They spend a ton of money vs others in the division but they're also ran like a business as the DeWitt's look to squeeze ever cent they can out of Cardinals fans. If they had grand plans on putting all this added money back into payroll other than what they have to spend to keep a competitive team thus keeping that 3M+ ATM's in the stands then they would have inked Pujols.

I personally believe Cardinals fans should be more worried about who is going to be the next owner and how much will he spend after making a massive investment to buy the team because as soon as the new TV deal comes up there is very little doubt in my mind they will put the team up for sale.

If they were in for the long haul they would have paid Albert, by the time he's done playing and going to Cooperstown most if not all of the HOF they bring around will be gone. One reason why it was so smart to give him the 10 year personal service contract by the Angels. I also don't think its a coincidence all their big deals fall off the books right about the time they will be exploring a TV deal making it more appealing to new buyers, while if they had a potential bad Pujols deal lingering as dead weight for a few years it would make the value go down.

[MikeThierry]

They spend a ton of money vs others in the division but they're also ran like a business as the DeWitt's look to squeeze ever cent they can out of Cardinals fans. If they had grand plans on putting all this added money back into payroll other than what they have to spend to keep a competitive team thus keeping that 3M+ ATM's in the stands then they would have inked Pujols.

I personally believe Cardinals fans should be more worried about who is going to be the next owner and how much will he spend after making a massive investment to buy the team because as soon as the new TV deal comes up there is very little doubt in my mind they will put the team up for sale.

If they were in for the long haul they would have paid Albert, by the time he's done playing and going to Cooperstown most if not all of the HOF they bring around will be gone. One reason why it was so smart to give him the 10 year personal service contract by the Angels. I also don't think its a coincidence all their big deals fall off the books right about the time they will be exploring a TV deal making it more appealing to new buyers, while if they had a potential bad Pujols deal lingering as dead weight for a few years it would make the value go down.

You are jumping to a ton of conclusions here that aren't really based on any fact what so ever. Why would DeWitt, who's shown no indication that he is going to sell the team, sell the team when he stands to make a ton of money off of a new TV deal? It makes no business sense esp. when the Cardinals continue to increase in value year after year. Why would he also sell the team when DeWitt is projected to make a ton of money off of the Ball Park Village they're starting to build and have plans finalized for?

Also, not signing Pujols has nothing to do with some back room, smoke and mirrors underhanded thinking by DeWitt to sell the team in 2016-2017. It has everything to do with paying an aging player 25+ million until age 42-43 and the Cards being outbid by a team that has the financial resources to do so.

[Tom Servo]

He was set to be a free agent after this year, so flipping after the season (I assume you aren't thinking of a comp pick) wasn't an option.

I meant this 2012-2013 offseason, should have clarified.

[MikeThierry]

I meant this 2012-2013 offseason, should have clarified.

What would the Cardinals been able to flip him for? The Cardinals are in transition but they're still going to be able to compete. However I think it would have been disastrous not having a frontline starter with a pitching staff full of rookies and no real veterans on it.