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Thread: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

  1. #1
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    Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Was given a ticket to Sat 4/6 Reds vs Nats.

    5th game. 6 days. Is that a Cueto/Strasburg matchup or Leake/Nats #5 matchup?
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

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  3. #2
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    I would think the Reds and Nats would skip over their 5th starter this early in the season.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Baker doesn't usually skip starters from what I remember. I doubt they want leake going 2 weeks almost without pitching in a real game. I have tickets for Sat and Sun. Expecting Leake vs. Detwiler then Cueto v Strasburg. Should be a great game sunday.

  5. #4
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    You will get Leake vs. Nats 5. The reasoning goes like this. Sure there is an off-day in there and sure Cueto would be going on his normal turn. But Latos, Arroyo and Bailey would be coming back on short rest, unless they pitched Leake on the 7th. I think you should expect Leake to be on the mound for that game.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    I see, I see. Thanks for the education regardless of who throws. I'd obviously prefer to see 1vs1, but any day at the yard watching high level baseball is a good one.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    On MLB.com they are listing Detwiler as the Nats starter for April 6th. TBD for the Reds.
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Why wouldn't they go Cueto in that game, then Leake in the next one (on the 7th)?

    That would keep everyone else on normal rest and wouldn't hurt Leake at all.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Why wouldn't they go Cueto in that game, then Leake in the next one (on the 7th)?

    That would keep everyone else on normal rest and wouldn't hurt Leake at all.
    Probably don't want to end up with a lot of Leake vs. other team number ones matchups.

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Funny update...I sent my boy a text about more than likely seeing the #5's battle. He replied with: "No worries, out seats are worse than the starters anyway".

    My first game of the season and the ticket was gift, who'd listen if I complained?
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Probably don't want to end up with a lot of Leake vs. other team number ones matchups.
    Why not?

    Wouldn't that mean the Reds have a ton (four of them) of better pitchers against other teams' lesser starters?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Probably don't want to end up with a lot of Leake vs. other team number ones matchups.

    Old wives tale that #1 pitches agaisnt the other team's #1 etc. After the first week of the season, it gets mixed up pretty quickly. Everyone pitches agaisnt everyone pretty much.

    Otherwise, you'd have alot of #1's with 5-15 records, and a lot of #5's with 15-5 records.

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Why wouldn't they go Cueto in that game, then Leake in the next one (on the 7th)?

    That would keep everyone else on normal rest and wouldn't hurt Leake at all.
    The rotation is set for a reason. They want certain pitchers following others etc. I know they want Arroyo between Latos and Bailey for example.

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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    And Leake between Cueto and Latos makes the same type of sense.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  16. #14
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Why not?

    Wouldn't that mean the Reds have a ton (four of them) of better pitchers against other teams' lesser starters?
    Bill James has a formula to estimate how many games a team with one winning percentage can be expected to win against a team with another winning percentage. I used his formula to see how your suggestion would work out. (Mainly because I have had that very same thought.) It turns out that a team would win slightly (very slightly) more games doing what you suggested.

    Here is the link: http://207.56.97.150/articles/playoff2002.htm

    So I just assumed the following winning percentages for each position in the rotation from 1 through 5. I assumed the same winning percentages for Reds' pitchers as opponents' pitchers.

    1 - .600
    2 - .550
    3 - .500
    4 - .450
    5 - .400

    Here are the results: In the upper chart, if Number 1s matched up against Number 1s on down the line, it would work out as one might expect, with 81 wins on the seasons for Reds' opponents. In the lower chart, if the opponents' number 1 matched up with the Reds' number 5, and the Reds had the advantage at the other four slots, the result would be 80.8 expected wins for the opponents. So, you are right by the slimmest of margins. The Reds would win 81.2 games doing it your way instead of 81.0 matching up 1s vs. 1s, etc.

    Code:
    OPP	REDS	WPCT	GAMES	XWINS	TOT-XWINS
    .600	.600	.500	33	16.5	81.0
    .550	.550	.500	33	16.5	
    .500	.500	.500	32	16.0	
    .450	.450	.500	32	16.0	
    .400	.400	.500	32	16.0	
    					
    OPP	REDS	WPCT	GAMES	XWINS	TOT-XWINS
    .600	.400	.692	33	22.8	80.8
    .550	.600	.449	33	14.8	
    .500	.550	.450	32	14.4	
    .450	.500	.450	32	14.4	
    .400	.450	.449	32	14.4
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  17. #15
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Riddle me this rotation gurus...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Why not?

    Wouldn't that mean the Reds have a ton (four of them) of better pitchers against other teams' lesser starters?
    You asked why they wouldn't not why they shouldn't. I gave you the reason the Reds are not going to do it. Whether it makes sense or not is another debate. Baseball teams in general like to have their best against the other teams best. We may not like it but that is how decisions are made.


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