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Thread: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

  1. #91
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    God as my witness, I haven't checked fangraphs yet.

    But It seems the only time people use WAR from baseball reference is when they don't like what fangraphs WAR is. (Or when it helps their case moreso)
    Jay gets a 2.1 from Fangraphs (i.e. a stone cold average WAR figure)

    Cozart gets a 2.3, FWIW.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  3. #92
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Jay gets a 2.1 from Fangraphs (i.e. a stone cold average WAR figure)

    Cozart gets a 2.3, FWIW.
    Not a big difference but like I said, when I see bWAR it throws up a red flag.

  4. #93
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Shawn Green...just put it all together one year and had a pretty good career. I think Jay can do that and more.

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  6. #94
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    Shawn Green...just put it all together one year and had a pretty good career. I think Jay can do that and more.
    I think that he's going to be something between Green and Ben Grieve. Maybe closer to Green..... but as a prospect I thought we were looking at Larry Walker 2....
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  7. #95
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Hey Ghosts. Drop the Ben Greive comp will you? Jay Bruce had double the amount of WAR Greive had in his whole career before Bruce turned 26. It's over. The Grieve comp loses.

    I know you minced words and said "between", but you really should stop dropping his name.

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  9. #96
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Larry Walker OPS by age:
    22: .434 (47 ABs)
    23: .761
    24: .807
    25: .859
    26: .841

    Jay Bruce:
    22: .773
    23: .846
    24: .814
    25: .841
    26: ?

    They came up at similar ages.

    He has been just as good as Larry Walker.......................................

    Must be that dreaded eye test again......................
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  11. #97
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Guys with a lot of swing and miss in their game are going to particularly challenged in late game situations facing short relievers. With his swing, Bruce will never get around that. Late in the game, needing a base hit, give me Phillips. Of course, I'd still take Bruce against a tough righty.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Is there a split stat I can find on Bruce vs lefty relievers? I'm just curious what he is hitting against those guys who specialize in coming in against him. I guess we'd also need to see what those stats are against Votto and other hitters too to compare.

  13. #99
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    I find that I am pretty satisfied with Jay Bruce's progression to date and enjoy watching him play the game.

    Then again, I didn't expect him to be immediately fill the once-in-a-generation-cant-miss-gonnna-be-historical tag fans/broadcasters like to put on some players ... (Eric Davis->Austin Kearns->Adam Dunn->Jay Bruce) and then chastise them when the don't live up to those expectations.

    GL

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  15. #100
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Larry Walker OPS by age:
    22: .434 (47 ABs)
    23: .761
    24: .807
    25: .859
    26: .841

    Jay Bruce:
    22: .773
    23: .846
    24: .814
    25: .841
    26: ?

    They came up at similar ages.

    He has been just as good as Larry Walker.......................................

    Must be that dreaded eye test again......................
    Not to mention the video game numbers he put up in Coors in the days before the humidor. Take that ballpark away and Walker looks way more human.

  16. #101
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Hey Ghosts. Drop the Ben Greive comp will you? Jay Bruce had double the amount of WAR Greive had in his whole career before Bruce turned 26. It's over. The Grieve comp loses.

    I know you minced words and said "between", but you really should stop dropping his name.
    This

    Ben was a statue too

  17. #102
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    God as my witness, I haven't checked fangraphs yet.

    But It seems the only time people use WAR from baseball reference is when they don't like what fangraphs WAR is. (Or when it helps their case moreso)
    I usually use bb-ref because it just happens to be the site I got to the most, so I wasn't trying to cherry pick. But I was more so using WAR to point out he isn't a great player as of yet, not that he isn't a good player.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  18. #103
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Larry Walker OPS by age:
    22: .434 (47 ABs)
    23: .761
    24: .807
    25: .859
    26: .841

    Jay Bruce:
    22: .773
    23: .846
    24: .814
    25: .841
    26: ?

    They came up at similar ages.

    He has been just as good as Larry Walker.......................................

    Must be that dreaded eye test again......................
    Don't bother mentioning 1996-2002 for Larry Walker, near Hall of Fame numbers in those years. He only hit .341 during that seven year span. 210 homers, 1.068 OPS. So as long as Jay does that over the next seven years, I think your point is good.


    .................................................. .................... Eye test that.
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  19. #104
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Don't bother mentioning 1996-2002 for Larry Walker, near Hall of Fame numbers in those years. He only hit .341 during that seven year span. 210 homers, 1.068 OPS. So as long as Jay does that over the next seven years, I think your point is good.


    .................................................. .................... Eye test that.
    Oh so we're going to compare Jay Bruce's age 22-25 seasons to Larry Walker's age 30-35 seasons? That makes perfect sense to me. Darn Jay Bruce for not putting up "near Hall of Fame numbers" as a 22-25 year old! What a bum.

    The fact that Larry Walker's best seasons by OPS came when he was 30-35 and 37 should set off all sorts of alarms anyway, but whatever, continue to drive that agenda!

    The FACT is, at similar ages, Jay Bruce and Larry Walker have been very similar players. Those are the facts we have to go by at this point.
    Last edited by reds44; 04-06-2013 at 12:04 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  21. #105
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Let's talk about Jay Bruce and his swing over the years

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    I usually use bb-ref because it just happens to be the site I got to the most, so I wasn't trying to cherry pick. But I was more so using WAR to point out he isn't a great player as of yet, not that he isn't a good player.
    That's cool and I certainly believe you. My rule of thumb (and it seems to prevail here) is that Fangraphs is the WAR to use (not trying to start that debate up but it seems to be true). I have seen bb-ref used in shady ways.

    Your point certainly is valid.


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