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Thread: Espn Award Predictions

  1. #16
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Ryan Howard posted a -1.1 WAR last year, and two analysts picked him to win the MVP this year.

    #Analysis.
    I dont get the hate i keep reading (not just here, but everywhere) about Ryan Howard. The guy suffered one of the most debilitating injuries for an athlete. An injury that takes a long time to fully recover from especially when its left heel for a left handed power hitter.

    Between 06 and '11 he was the most feared left handed slugger in baseball. More feared than Joey Votto by quite alot.

    He's 33 and plays in Citizens Bank. There is no reason to think that Howard can't return to being 35+ homers and 100+ rbi.

    BTW he had an awesome spring along with Dominic Brown.

    I don't think Howard will win the MVP, but to write off one of the finest power hitters of this generation before the season even starts is rather foolish imo

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  4. #17
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Ryan Howard posted a -1.1 WAR last year, and two analysts picked him to win the MVP this year.

    #Analysis.
    He hit .219 coming back from a torn Achilles tendon which also hurt his defense but still managed to get 14 HR and 56 RBI in 71 games. One would expect him to be healthy now and get back to that 44 HR and 133 RBI average he had in his first 6 full seasons that he finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th twice in the MVP race. If the way his opposite field power was there again in ST is any indicator he should have yet another big year.

  5. #18
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    I dont get the hate i keep reading (not just here, but everywhere) about Ryan Howard. The guy suffered one of the most debilitating injuries for an athlete. An injury that takes a long time to fully recover from especially when its left heel for a left handed power hitter.

    Between 06 and '11 he was the most feared left handed slugger in baseball. More feared than Joey Votto by quite alot.

    He's 33 and plays in Citizens Bank. There is no reason to think that Howard can't return to being 35+ homers and 100+ rbi.

    BTW he had an awesome spring along with Dominic Brown.

    I don't think Howard will win the MVP, but to write off one of the finest power hitters of this generation before the season even starts is rather foolish imo
    The problem is that even if he gets back to 35 HRs and 100 RBI, he gives away most of his value as a hitter in the field and on the base paths. In 2011, for instance, he put up 33 HRs and 116 RBI, but was still worth a pedestrian 1.6WAR.

    Put simply, he can be one of the most feared left-handed hitters in baseball, and still not be anywhere close to one of the best players in baseball.

  6. #19
    Salukifan2
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by LegallyMinded View Post
    The problem is that even if he gets back to 35 HRs and 100 RBI, he gives away most of his value as a hitter in the field and on the base paths. In 2011, for instance, he put up 33 HRs and 116 RBI, but was still worth a pedestrian 1.6WAR.

    Put simply, he can be one of the most feared left-handed hitters in baseball, and still not be anywhere close to one of the best players in baseball.
    We didn't say best player in the game. We said MVP. If the Phillies win the NL east and Howard hits over 40 bombs and drives in over 120 he will win the MVP.

  7. #20
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Salukifan2 View Post
    We didn't say best player in the game. We said MVP. If the Phillies win the NL east and Howard hits over 40 bombs and drives in over 120 he will win the MVP.
    If the Reds win the division and Votto OPS's 1.200, then it doesn't matter what Howard does.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  8. #21
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    WAR doesn't win games, game changers like Ryan Howard do.

    Phillies record when he starts..
    39-27
    95-51
    83-59
    91-67
    89-69
    77-62
    81-76
    45-34
    4-1

  9. #22
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    WAR doesn't win games, game changers like Ryan Howard do.

    Phillies record when he starts..
    39-27
    95-51
    83-59
    91-67
    89-69
    77-62
    81-76
    45-34
    4-1

    I'm going to guess Howard didn't throw many innings in any of those seasons.

    You win games by Scoring more runs than the other team.
    There's only so much one player can do. This isn't the NBA.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  10. #23
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I'm going to guess Howard didn't throw many innings in any of those seasons.

    You win games by Scoring more runs than the other team.
    There's only so much one player can do. This isn't the NBA.
    This is why game changers like Howard are so important.

    Even if he doesn't do the damage himself which happens often to post those stats, the other team may have to spend their specialist in the 7th to escape a big jam on Howard. The Extra IBB help lead to extra AB for good hitters late, the starter may ended up leaving early due to adding to PC pitching around the main weapon. And most important of all these players make others around him better by getting the guys in front of him to see better pitches.

    The superstar players will get theirs regardless over the course of 162, but managers still spend the whole game trying to figure out a ways not to get beat by them so just being in the order opens the door for others to succeeded and WAR doesn't tell you who does things like that.

  11. #24
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Projection systems have Howard projected anywhere from a 0.9 WAR to a 1.8 WAR this season. Sooooo... yeah.

    This isn't 2006-2011 anymore. He's now 33, and isn't exactly the body type that you would expect to improve with age.

    And Joey Votto is absolutely a more "feared" hitter than Ryan Howard in his prime. And I don't even know what that means. Votto is a better hitter than Howard ever was (aside from maybe 2006).

  12. #25
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Projection systems have Howard projected anywhere from a 0.9 WAR to a 1.8 WAR this season. Sooooo... yeah.

    This isn't 2006-2011 anymore. He's now 33, and isn't exactly the body type that you would expect to improve with age.

    And Joey Votto is absolutely a more "feared" hitter than Ryan Howard in his prime. And I don't even know what that means. Votto is a better hitter than Howard ever was (aside from maybe 2006).

    Bill James has him 36 HR in 150 games and also 33 years old isn't some over the hill age.

    Votto is a better hitter so if its a 1 run game and two on and 2 out teams would be more worried about Joey but if its a 3 run game in the same situation I bet they would rather face him than Howard who has more pop. HR per AB is 19.54 vs 13.51 advantage Howard.

  13. #26
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Bill James has him 36 HR in 150 games and also 33 years old isn't some over the hill age.

    Votto is a better hitter so if its a 1 run game and two on and 2 out teams would be more worried about Joey but if its a 3 run game in the same situation I bet they would rather face him than Howard who has more pop. HR per AB is 19.54 vs 13.51 advantage Howard.
    If it were the home run derby, maybe. Home runs do not tell the full story.

    James also has Howard projected for a .838 OPS.

    There isn't a scenario where a pitcher would rather face Votto than Howard.

  14. #27
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Bill James has him 36 HR in 150 games and also 33 years old isn't some over the hill age.

    Votto is a better hitter so if its a 1 run game and two on and 2 out teams would be more worried about Joey but if its a 3 run game in the same situation I bet they would rather face him than Howard who has more pop. HR per AB is 19.54 vs 13.51 advantage Howard.
    No, Bill James doesn't. The STATS INC projections that run in the Bill James book/website have Howard doing that.

    And no, WAR doesn't win games. WAR simply accounts for what happened. And it accounts for it awfully well and team WAR totals correlate very strongly to actual WIN totals for teams. Which means it is awfully close to being accurate and well, meaningful.

  15. #28
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    If it were the home run derby, maybe. Home runs do not tell the full story.

    James also has Howard projected for a .838 OPS.

    There isn't a scenario where a pitcher would rather face Votto than Howard.

    When you're down 2 and kinda need a HR then yes HR tell the full story. He has a .915 OPS and that's with it falling some from the .718 last year missing ST coming back from the Achilles. So at the end of the day Howard if on the field he is going to put up big numbers and unless everyone gets hurt they are going to win games.


    Just like WAR those projections don't win games and like I said game earlier changers like Howard do. Pitchers would rather face Joey if there is 2 outs and you need a HR to tie it.

    Over the course of 600 AB their HR per AB rate translates to.
    30.7 HR for JV
    44.4 HR for RH

    Look at their 162 averages
    30 HR, 102 RBI and 95 Runs for JV
    44 HR, 136 RBI and 98 Runs for RH

    Howard's power changes the game from the box, Joey can keep innings going and get a runner in form 3rd but needs more help to totally change the game any time he steps in.

  16. #29
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    When you're down 2 and kinda need a HR then yes HR tell the full story. He has a .915 OPS and that's with it falling some from the .718 last year missing ST coming back from the Achilles. So at the end of the day Howard if on the field he is going to put up big numbers and unless everyone gets hurt they are going to win games.


    Just like WAR those projections don't win games and like I said game earlier changers like Howard do. Pitchers would rather face Joey if there is 2 outs and you need a HR to tie it.

    Over the course of 600 AB their HR per AB rate translates to.
    30.7 HR for JV
    44.4 HR for RH

    Look at their 162 averages
    30 HR, 102 RBI and 95 Runs for JV
    44 HR, 136 RBI and 98 Runs for RH

    Howard's power changes the game from the box, Joey can keep innings going and get a runner in form 3rd but needs more help to totally change the game any time he steps in.
    Set aside the poor stats you continue to use (HR and RBI don't tell us as much as OPS and wOBA do), and let's get back to what we're discussing. HR rate has nothing to do with who is a more valuable player. Being a "feared hitter" has nothing to do with being the most valuable player. Being a valuable player isn't decided by who a pitcher would rather face in a particular situation (and I'm still not understanding your argument).

  17. #30
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, Bill James doesn't. The STATS INC projections that run in the Bill James book/website have Howard doing that.

    And no, WAR doesn't win games. WAR simply accounts for what happened. And it accounts for it awfully well and team WAR totals correlate very strongly to actual WIN totals for teams. Which means it is awfully close to being accurate and well, meaningful.
    WAR has far too much love for Defense as it has Brendan Ryan a 1.4 WAR despite hitting .194/.277/.278/.555 in 470 PA and had 70 RBI plus Non HR runs total. Howard was 1.6 and 1.0 WAR in 2011 and 2010 and averaged 164 RBI plus non HR run scored and his team won 99.5 games each of those years.

    These advance stats are what doesn't tell the whole story in these debates.


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