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Thread: Espn Award Predictions

  1. #31
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    If the choice is between Votto and Howard, I take Votto every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  3. #32
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Howard as a 2013 MVP candidate is kinda silly, he wouldn't even be in my top ten. But it's not out of the realm of possibility. And to be honest, I can see him have a monster comeback year if he's healthy.

    On a side note, I personally think that being a feared hitter is definitely one of the many criteria for being an MVP. But everyone has different ideas of what makes an MVP, so I understand those who disagree.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #33
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Set aside the poor stats you continue to use (HR and RBI don't tell us as much as OPS and wOBA do), and let's get back to what we're discussing. HR rate has nothing to do with who is a more valuable player. Being a "feared hitter" has nothing to do with being the most valuable player. Being a valuable player isn't decided by who a pitcher would rather face in a particular situation (and I'm still not understanding your argument).
    Runs win games and guys with big power produce instant runs, its the flaw in many of these advanced stats. Votto is a .316 career hitter with a .415 OBP but scores less runs on top of driving in less runs vs Howard who is a .271 hitter with a .364 OBP.

  5. #34
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    WAR has far too much love for Defense as it has Brendan Ryan a 1.4 WAR despite hitting .194/.277/.278/.555 in 470 PA and had 70 RBI plus Non HR runs total. Howard was 1.6 and 1.0 WAR in 2011 and 2010 and averaged 164 RBI plus non HR run scored and his team won 99.5 games each of those years.

    These advance stats are what doesn't tell the whole story in these debates.
    Arguably the best defensive player in the game was considered an overall 'below-average' player by WAR. Ryan Howard plays at a position where he is expected to hit a lot of home runs and get on base a lot. He has hit a lot of home runs. His OBP has been mostly run-of-the-mill for a first baseman over the last 5 years. And he is atrocious defensively at a position filled with other poor defenders. So, Howard is arguably one of the worst defenders in the game and his bat has been pretty good. That sounds like a guy who is roughly average overall. WAR reflects that.

  6. #35
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Take out Howard and put in a defensive player and I highly doubt the Phillies win those 5 NL East titles. Just like they were 12 under .500 when he didn't start last year and then 12 over in his 66 starts when he did.

    Power = Runs, Runs = Wins!

  7. #36
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Runs win games and guys with big power produce instant runs, its the flaw in many of these advanced stats. Votto is a .316 career hitter with a .415 OBP but scores less runs on top of driving in less runs vs Howard who is a .271 hitter with a .364 OBP.
    Runs meaning nothing when evaluating an individual player. Nothing. It's a team dependent stat.

  8. #37
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Runs meaning nothing when evaluating an individual player. Nothing. It's a team dependent stat.

    To my point! A player like Howard has a shot to knock himself in 50 times in a year from the box, you don't need any help there.

  9. #38
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    To my point! A player like Howard has a shot to knock himself in 50 times in a year from the box, you don't need any help there.
    What?

    A player that gets on base a LOT more than the other player will score more runs than a guy with slightly more power (if he even still does have more power than Votto).

    In equal lineups, Votto scores a ton more runs than Howard.

  10. #39
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    What?

    A player that gets on base a LOT more than the other player will score more runs than a guy with slightly more power (if he even still does have more power than Votto).

    In equal lineups, Votto scores a ton more runs than Howard.
    Joey has equal if not better bats behind him than Howard has if not they he would get so many IBB, Howard knocks himself in on a 162 game average 44 times, one year he did it 58 times. On 162 game average Joey does it 30 times so that OBP difference gets evened out by the extra HR that's why over that 162 average Howard scores 3 more runs and drives in 34 less.

    Joey is no doubt a better hitter and puts up better Sabermetrics stats but Howard can completely change games from the box and makes then a good team despite no love from the overrated WAR stat.

  11. #40
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Espn Award Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by HometownHero View Post
    Joey has equal if not better bats behind him than Howard has if not they he would get so many IBB, Howard knocks himself in on a 162 game average 44 times, one year he did it 58 times. On 162 game average Joey does it 30 times so that OBP difference gets evened out by the extra HR that's why over that 162 average Howard scores 3 more runs and drives in 34 less.
    No, it does not.

    wOBA utilizes linear formulas to assign run values for every type of event, obviously going from weakest to strongest (walk, single, double, triple, HR, etc.), and tells you the overall run value produced by a player. Votto has a career .413 wOBA, Howard has a .381 wOBA. And before you cite his 292 PA's from last year (immaterial when looking at a sample of 4700 PA's over his career, let's address the fact that the last time that Howard put up an OPS over .900 was 2009. Since then, he's torn his achilles, and is now at the not so ripe age of 33.

    Joey is no doubt a better hitter and puts up better Sabermetrics stats but Howard can completely change games from the box and makes then a good team despite no love from the overrated WAR stat.
    Not only do you choose to ignore WAR without anything to back it up, you choose to get rid of basically EVERY stat except home runs, which is basically the definition of cherry picking. Counting stats don't really tell us anything about the player that the ratio stats don't already tell us, other than what kind of teammates he has.

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