Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

[Kc61]

It's important to remember everything in a couple of contexts.

(1) Every quote from Dusty Baker regarding his logic on a decision is good for one day and one day only. Tomorrow he may very well make a decision that contradicts what he just said. So I don't think we should worry that he will "always" be doing one thing or another.

(2) Even beyond Dusty's ability to change his mind on general strategy concepts, this was a more specialized scenario where there was not just one man on, but two. And a sacrifice bunt didn't just put a player "in scoring position" but in a position where they didn't even need a hit to score him. Beyond that, because it was in the 8th inning and Chapman was already loose and coming in regardless, it made sense to play for just one run as opposed to playing for a bigger inning. Bunting runners to 2nd and 3rd may have lessened the chances at a multi-run inning, but increased the chances at a single run inning. Even considering that it meant Votto wouldn't get a chance to bat.

Good post, thanks. But there are some responses.

I know there's no "always" but Dusty's quote bothered me because it shows a general mindset, a concern on his part, which completely undermines hitting Phillips second.

The broader point is - with two great on base men like Choo and Votto in your lineup, how can you hit a major DP risk betwen them - particularly if from the first day this risk is influencing your strategy?

As for your second point, Chris Heisey is a backup; Joey Votto is a great hitter. In retrospect, I think you have to give Kobe Bryant the ball with time running out in a tie game. All other strategic considerations are secondary.

[swaisuc]

I hate the sac bunt with a passion, especially early in a game and especially with guys in the top of the lineup.

HATE. IT.

It wasn't early in this case though. It was the bottom of the 8th and a run would have brought on Chapman.

If Phillips hits into a DP (which Dusty is absolutely correct was a major concern there given his track record) they're intentionally walking Votto then too only now with 2 outs.

More to the point, there is a time and a place for everything and it was painfully obvious by the time this decision was made that the game would be decided by who could scrape 1 more run across the plate. I think a sac bunt there gives you the better odds to get 1 across the plate even if it means Heisey rather than Votto.

[bucksfan2]

The Reds score 1 run in 13 innings and its Dusty's fault because he decided to bunt a player to 3rd base with less than 2 outs? When one run wins the game you have to trust that your hitter, regardless of who it is, can get that run in more often than not.

[swaisuc]

Good post, thanks. But there are some responses.

I know there's no "always" but Dusty's quote bothered me because it shows a general mindset, a concern on his part, which completely undermines hitting Phillips second.

The broader point is - with two great on base men like Choo and Votto in your lineup, how can you hit a major DP risk betwen them - particularly if from the first day this risk is influencing your strategy?

As for your second point, Chris Heisey is a backup; Joey Votto is a great hitter. In retrospect, I think you have to give Kobe Bryant the ball with time running out in a tie game. All other strategic considerations are secondary.

Right, but bases loaded 1 out when you need 1 run is the baseball equivilent to a layup. Even Kobe will dish it off for a layup.

[Raisor]

Didn't Dusty have BP trying to sac bunt back in the third inning also?

[Kc61]

It wasn't early in this case though. It was the bottom of the 8th and a run would have brought on Chapman.

If Phillips hits into a DP (which Dusty is absolutely correct was a major concern there given his track record) they're intentionally walking Votto then too only now with 2 outs.

More to the point, there is a time and a place for everything and it was painfully obvious by the time this decision was made that the game would be decided by who could scrape 1 more run across the plate. I think a sac bunt there gives you the better odds to get 1 across the plate even if it means Heisey rather than Votto.

This thread is trying to make a broader point. I understand the decision yesterday is debatable.

The broader issue is hitting Phillips between Choo and Votto -- if Dusty is going to let Phillips' DP propensities influence the game like yesterday.

Why not hit a non-double play man second, hit Phillips lower down? Why have to worry about the DP every time Choo and Votto figure in the equation?

Heisey can't hit like Phillips, but he's not the double play threat. Same with Cozart. For different reasons. Why hit the ground ball man in the very spot that gives rise to this concern?

[Raisor]

I'd hit Bruce second myself.

[Kc61]

Right, but bases loaded 1 out when you need 1 run is the baseball equivilent to a layup. Even Kobe will dish it off for a layup.

I never saw Kobe feed Heisey for a layup. Ever.

[jojo]

When Phillips bunted on Opening Day I was ok with it. Then I thought it over and I was against it. I decided you can't take the bat out of both Phillips' and Votto's hands.

Then I read the following quote from Dusty after the game (on Fay's blog):

“That’s baseball,” Baker said. “If Brandon hits into a double play . . . we couldn’t take a chance on a double play. If Brandon has one fault, it’s hitting into double plays. He hits the ball hard on the ground.”

This quote caused me heartburn.

The Reds have decided that with Choo leading off and Votto hitting third, the man to hit second is Phillips. He will therefore bat with a man on first and Votto on deck - very often.

Does that mean Brandon will be constantly bunting for fear of the DP? Isn't Phillips one of the team's best hitters? Why put him in a batting slot that clearly gives rise to the DP possibility?

This all may be moot with the Ludwick injury. Phillips may hit fourth now. But frankly, it may be a better spot for Brandon. Heisey and Cozart aren't as good as Phillips, but they don't create the DP risk with Choo on first base.

Who needs a second place hitter who gives the manager double play jitters?

We saw yesterday the strategy against the Reds this year. Pitch to Choo, pitch around Votto, go after everyone else. The Reds have to put "everyone else" in the place that will lead to the most success.

There has to be a concerted effort to get Votto a meaningful at bat as often as possible. I wouldn't do anything that made it more likely Votto would get walked.

While I love debates about strategy and the kinds of discussions last night's game can stimulate, a large part of me feels like tomorrow can't get here fast enough.

[Steve4192]

I'd hit Bruce second myself.

I'd bat Votto second.

Why screw around trying to fit a square peg into a round hole? This team has two solid OBP guys. Why not bat them both as high in the order as possible and let the mediocre-to-low OBP sluggers fill out the rest of the lineup?

[puca]

Right, but bases loaded 1 out when you need 1 run is the baseball equivilent to a layup. Even Kobe will dish it off for a layup.

Not really when you consider Heisey hits into his fair share of DPs and also Ks at a prodigious rate. Not a layup at all.

[Redlegs]

I think Dusty's a fantanstic manager. The only thing with sacrificing on this team is that they strike out a lot. I don't like giving up outs with a team that can have problems putting the ball in play at times.

[Redlegs]

Right, but bases loaded 1 out when you need 1 run is the baseball equivilent to a layup. Even Kobe will dish it off for a layup.

Depends who's on the mound and who's at the dish. What looks like a layup could turn into an airball.

[Raisor]

I'd bat Votto second.

Why screw around trying to fit a square peg into a round hole? This team has two solid OBP guys. Why not bat them both as high in the order as possible and let the mediocre-to-low OBP sluggers fill out the rest of the lineup?

I've liked the idea of Bruce hitting second since he came up. I love power in the two slot. Love it.

Hitting infront of Votto, he'd be seeing way more fastballs too.

[lollipopcurve]

Phillips may hit into quite a few DPs. He also excels at hitting the ball to right field. When a runner's on first, he gets that opening on the right side. Let him shoot for it.

Play to win. Don't play to avoid failing.