John Erardi's take on the situation, with an assist from the late Earl Weaver.
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...4020804&Ref=PH
John Erardi's take on the situation, with an assist from the late Earl Weaver.
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...4020804&Ref=PH
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alwaysawarrior (04-03-2013),Fil3232 (04-03-2013),OnBaseMachine (04-03-2013),Raisor (04-03-2013),texasdave (04-03-2013)
Great posting, Atomic.
The Reds had the bases loaded with 1 out and didn't score. The bunt worked, imo. They were in a position to score a run or more. This just magnifies the absence of Ludwick in the lineup.
Bruce batted in that situation, our arguably number 2 best hitter/RBI guy. That's all the manager can do but the players need to perform and didn't.
I don't think anyone is going to argue that the Reds WOULD have scored if Phillips wouldn't have bunted. But DatDude and Votto are two of the best players on the team, and you want those guys up in scoring situations, not the bat taken out of their hands.
...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.
Votto's AVG with RISP, .320. Heisey's AVG with bases loaded, .211; Bruce, .242. The reds statistically had a better chance of scoring with Votto hitting and runners on 1st and 2nd than with either guys hitting with bases loaded. Phillips bunting was a complete waste of an out.
Once again you don't need Heisey to hit for average in that situation so that number is meaningless. Thats why you bunt so you increase chances of scoring without a hit. Heisey has hit with runner on 3rd less than 2 out 50 times in his career. with 30 rbis. Over 50% in baseball are great odds. That is consistent with league average scoring in that situation. The run gets home more than half the time.
My stance is that either way bunt or not was about an equal proposition odd wise if you look at the run scoring matrix. So I can see either side. My only issue is with the people who are convinced it was a horrible decision. The odds were in your favor either way and Dusty had to make a decision.
That stat is skewed. A runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs is not the same as bases loaded. A team will usually concede a run if home is not a force out, unless it is a sharply hit ball or a pop out. You need an error or a ball hit out of the infield to get a run in with bases loaded. HUGE difference. So yes, you DO need Heisey to hit for average there.
Last edited by westofyou; 04-03-2013 at 12:25 PM.
Joe Maddon's Rays were 6th in the AL in sac bunts last year, 7th in 2011 and 8th in 2010. Trending upwards. Also, interestingly enough, Dusty sac bunted less last year with non-pitchers (28) than Tampa did (34).We're guessing that at least 20 of the 30 Major League Baseball managers would have done what Baker did. Maybe as many as 25. The ones who might not have you can count on one hand - guys like Davey Johnson and Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter.
Last edited by RedsLvr; 04-03-2013 at 12:43 PM.
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