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Thread: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

  1. #61
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So, you would rather count on the opposing pitcher throwing a wild pitch than take your chances with Joey Votto swinging the bat?
    I would rather trust a major league ball player to have the ability to get a runner in from 3rd base with less than two outs. If I had to play it that way every single game I would. The thing is if BP swings away and doesn't advance the runners that brings Votto up who isn't going to see a good pitch in the entire at bat. Instead of focusing on Dusty why not focus on a team that was inept at scoring runs. Heisey not being able to make contact. Bruce not being able to make contact. We are crucifying the manager after one game in which they went 12 innings of allowing 1 run. I will take those odds any day of the week.

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  4. #62
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Instead of focusing on Dusty why not focus on a team that was inept at scoring runs. Heisey not being able to make contact. Bruce not being able to make contact.
    Betting on Chris Heisey to make contact is like putting a three-legged horse in your trifecta and wondering why the card doesn't pay.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  5. #63
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Concerning the OP's question about the lineup, Dusty says a lot of things. I never draw conclusions from a anything he says. I do think he will bunt the batter in the second hole more than most people will like, but I always thought that. Nothing he did or said yesterday changed my mind on that subject.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #64
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I would rather trust a major league ball player to have the ability to get a runner in from 3rd base with less than two outs. If I had to play it that way every single game I would. The thing is if BP swings away and doesn't advance the runners that brings Votto up who isn't going to see a good pitch in the entire at bat. Instead of focusing on Dusty why not focus on a team that was inept at scoring runs. Heisey not being able to make contact. Bruce not being able to make contact. We are crucifying the manager after one game in which they went 12 innings of allowing 1 run. I will take those odds any day of the week.
    The intent here was not to knock Dusty for one particular play.

    The intent was to question Dusty and the rest of the organization on the decision to hit Phillips between Choo and Votto.

    Dusty's comments yesterday suggested that Phillips' propensity to hit into DPs is an important consideration for the manager. It will influence his judgments.

    Why then hit Phillips second? Whenever Choo gets on will this "DP fear" creep into the equation? Is this really the way to optimize the Choo/Votto potential?

    The Reds have a unique opportunity here. Choo and Votto are special hitters. The Reds need to set up a lineup to maximize their abilities. We don't need Dusty being gun shy with the top of this batting order, which has so much promise.

    So this thread was intended to cover a systemic, longer-term issue. Of course, with Ludwick out, the problem may resolve itself.

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  8. #65
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Betting on Chris Heisey to make contact is like putting a three-legged horse in your trifecta and wondering why the card doesn't pay.
    If that's the case, release him today. Every major league hitter should be able to get that runner from third with less than two outs a majority of the time.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #66
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Last years major league teams averaged one Sac Fly every four games.

    I'll take the chance of Phillips or Votto hitting.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  10. #67
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    I can't think of a hitter on this team who has been more yanked around and misused than BP. It's a miracle the guy can even hit anymore.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  11. #68
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I would rather trust a major league ball player to have the ability to get a runner in from 3rd base with less than two outs. If I had to play it that way every single game I would. The thing is if BP swings away and doesn't advance the runners that brings Votto up who isn't going to see a good pitch in the entire at bat. Instead of focusing on Dusty why not focus on a team that was inept at scoring runs. Heisey not being able to make contact. Bruce not being able to make contact. We are crucifying the manager after one game in which they went 12 innings of allowing 1 run. I will take those odds any day of the week.
    Under this scenario, Dusty chose to avoid the ~3% chance BP would GIDP (140 in his 4995 career PAs) instead of ~32% he would reach base (career OBP) or ~65% chance he would make a non-GIDP out and we'd get to Heisey with the bases loaded and 1 out.

    Obviously Dusty has to do this in real time, but he should know the odds of BP reaching base far outweigh him GIDP'ing. And if a regular out or productive out still results in Heisey with the bases loaded, like others have said, I'd rather take my chances with BP and Votto.

    Edit (for clarity): Dusty passed on the 32% chance BP doesn't make an out to avoid the ~3% chance he GIDP. I don't think it was the right move in the situation if we assume Votto gets put on first base if BP makes a non-GIDP out.
    Last edited by Fil3232; 04-02-2013 at 02:04 PM.

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  13. #69
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I would rather trust a major league ball player to have the ability to get a runner in from 3rd base with less than two outs. If I had to play it that way every single game I would. The thing is if BP swings away and doesn't advance the runners that brings Votto up who isn't going to see a good pitch in the entire at bat. Instead of focusing on Dusty why not focus on a team that was inept at scoring runs. Heisey not being able to make contact. Bruce not being able to make contact. We are crucifying the manager after one game in which they went 12 innings of allowing 1 run. I will take those odds any day of the week.
    Very few people are crucifying the manager. Most are just pointing out that they (themselves) would never take the bat out of those two hitters hands given the situation.

    Regardless of how they got to the bases loaded 1-out situation, Heisey needs to get the job done in that situation and when he doesn't Bruce needs to pick him up.

  14. #70
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Last years major league teams averaged one Sac Fly every four games.

    I'll take the chance of Phillips or Votto hitting.
    And a K every 4.5 ab's

  15. #71
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Fil3232 View Post
    Under this scenario, Dusty chose to avoid the ~3% chance BP would GIDP (140 in his 4995 career PAs) instead of ~32% he would reach base (career OBP) or ~65% chance he would make a non-GIDP out and we'd get to Heisey with the bases loaded and 1 out.

    Obviously Dusty has to do this in real time, but he should know the odds of BP reaching base far outweigh him GIDP'ing. And if a regular out or productive out still results in Heisey with the bases loaded, like others have said, I'd rather take my chances with BP and Votto.
    Not entirely fair analysis. If I am reading his splits correctly BP has had 908 ABs with man on first and less than 2 outs. So the odds of him hitting into a DP is more like 15%.

  16. #72
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Not entirely fair analysis. If I am reading his splits correctly BP has had 908 ABs with man on first and less than 2 outs. So the odds of him hitting into a DP is more like 15%.
    Thanks--you're right. I did a quick (lazy) pull of GIDP/PA. I think his OBP would still > GIDP%.

  17. #73
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    And a K every 4.5 ab's
    Surprisingly, that was pretty close to league average.

    1238 team k's NL average
    1266 Cincy team K's

    I thought it would be much worse than that.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  18. #74
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    After reading all of this thread, I've come to the conclusion this Reds offense isn't much better than last years.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  19. #75
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    After reading all of this thread, I've come to the conclusion this Reds offense isn't much better than last years.
    small sample size alert!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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