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Thread: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

  1. #121
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    John Erardi's take on the situation, with an assist from the late Earl Weaver.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...4020804&Ref=PH
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
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  4. #122
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    There were 6 teams who managed to score 5-11 runs yesterday despite the weather. I think the reason runs can be scarce on Opening Day around the league is because every team is throwing their Ace pitcher. The Reds were deep into the Angels' bullpen in the 8th inning yesterday after their Ace Jered Weaver was removed.
    They had 2 hits off Weaver and only 1 off of bullpen. You can credit the pitchers if you want but yesterday was not a good run scoring enviroment at GABP.

    Deep into the Angels bullpen in 8th? Garrett Richards was literally the first guy in game after Weaver.

  5. #123
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Great posting, Atomic.

  6. #124
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    The Reds had the bases loaded with 1 out and didn't score. The bunt worked, imo. They were in a position to score a run or more. This just magnifies the absence of Ludwick in the lineup.

    Bruce batted in that situation, our arguably number 2 best hitter/RBI guy. That's all the manager can do but the players need to perform and didn't.

  7. #125
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    The Reds had the bases loaded with 1 out and didn't score. The bunt worked, imo. They were in a position to score a run or more. This just magnifies the absence of Ludwick in the lineup.

    Bruce batted in that situation, our arguably number 2 best hitter/RBI guy. That's all the manager can do but the players need to perform and didn't.
    How can you argue that it worked? They didn't score. You can argue that it should/could have worked. But you can't argue that it did because it didn't. I think the article by Erardi was spot on.

  8. #126
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    John Erardi's take on the situation, with an assist from the late Earl Weaver.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...4020804&Ref=PH


    Earl Weaver isn't late. He was right on time.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  10. #127
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    I don't think anyone is going to argue that the Reds WOULD have scored if Phillips wouldn't have bunted. But DatDude and Votto are two of the best players on the team, and you want those guys up in scoring situations, not the bat taken out of their hands.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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  12. #128
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    The Reds had the bases loaded with 1 out and didn't score. The bunt worked, imo. They were in a position to score a run or more. This just magnifies the absence of Ludwick in the lineup.

    Bruce batted in that situation, our arguably number 2 best hitter/RBI guy. That's all the manager can do but the players need to perform and didn't.
    Votto's AVG with RISP, .320. Heisey's AVG with bases loaded, .211; Bruce, .242. The reds statistically had a better chance of scoring with Votto hitting and runners on 1st and 2nd than with either guys hitting with bases loaded. Phillips bunting was a complete waste of an out.

  13. #129
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsLvr View Post
    Votto's AVG with RISP, .320. Heisey's AVG with bases loaded, .211; Bruce, .242. The reds statistically had a better chance of scoring with Votto hitting and runners on 1st and 2nd than with either guys hitting with bases loaded. Phillips bunting was a complete waste of an out.
    Once again you don't need Heisey to hit for average in that situation so that number is meaningless. Thats why you bunt so you increase chances of scoring without a hit. Heisey has hit with runner on 3rd less than 2 out 50 times in his career. with 30 rbis. Over 50% in baseball are great odds. That is consistent with league average scoring in that situation. The run gets home more than half the time.

    My stance is that either way bunt or not was about an equal proposition odd wise if you look at the run scoring matrix. So I can see either side. My only issue is with the people who are convinced it was a horrible decision. The odds were in your favor either way and Dusty had to make a decision.

  14. #130
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    Once again you don't need Heisey to hit for average in that situation so that number is meaningless. Thats why you bunt so you increase chances of scoring without a hit. Heisey has hit with runner on 3rd less than 2 out 50 times in his career. with 30 rbis. Over 50% in baseball are great odds. That is consistent with league average scoring in that situation. The run gets home more than half the time.
    That stat is skewed. A runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs is not the same as bases loaded. A team will usually concede a run if home is not a force out, unless it is a sharply hit ball or a pop out. You need an error or a ball hit out of the infield to get a run in with bases loaded. HUGE difference. So yes, you DO need Heisey to hit for average there.

  15. #131
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Earl Weaver isn't late. He was right on time.
    He Sac bunted Mark Belanger 143 times in 12 seasons so he must have seen a use for it sometimes eh?

    Funny thing is that from 1968 - 1970 the Oriloles sacrificed more than 4 other AL teams
    Last edited by westofyou; 04-03-2013 at 12:25 PM.

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  17. #132
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsLvr View Post
    That stat is skewed. A runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs is not the same as bases loaded. A team will usually concede a run if home is not a force out, unless it is a sharply hit ball or a pop out. You need an error or a ball hit out of the infield to get a run in with bases loaded. HUGE difference. So yes, you DO need Heisey to hit for average there.
    Well if we are being fair you just can't flip up Heisey's batting average and act as if that is the odds he gets the run home.

  18. #133
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    He Sac bunted Mark Belanger 143 times in 12 seasons so he must have seen a use for it sometimes eh?

    Funny thing is that from 1968 - 1970 the Oriloles sacrificed more than 4 other AL teams
    We're guessing that at least 20 of the 30 Major League Baseball managers would have done what Baker did. Maybe as many as 25. The ones who might not have you can count on one hand - guys like Davey Johnson and Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter.
    Joe Maddon's Rays were 6th in the AL in sac bunts last year, 7th in 2011 and 8th in 2010. Trending upwards. Also, interestingly enough, Dusty sac bunted less last year with non-pitchers (28) than Tampa did (34).

  19. #134
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Well if we are being fair you just can't flip up Heisey's batting average and act as if that is the odds he gets the run home.
    True, but the only other realistic factor is that would change that stat is a sacrifice fly or a walk, which even so, would still make the odds relatively low. Either way, my point is that letting Votto hit was the better choice.
    Last edited by RedsLvr; 04-03-2013 at 12:43 PM.

  20. #135
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Orders, Bunting, and Dusty

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    John Erardi's take on the situation, with an assist from the late Earl Weaver.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...4020804&Ref=PH
    Great article.

    Phillips had a 15% chance of GIDP, while having a 29% chance of getting a hit. No way in heck I take the bat out of two of my best hitters. That was a potentially game losing decision.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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