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Thread: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

  1. #16
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The one benefit of Ludwick's unfortunate injury is that it may get Phillips out of the two hole. He may seem like a number two hitter, but he is not.
    He's actually been best hitting 4th (OPS = 0.785).

    I wouldn't mind seeing him there again.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Is this nuts? highest batting average is how line up is made. You earn your keep everyday. A lot of changes daily or weekly to line-up possibly, but gotta bunch the good hitters and play for the moment, not for reputation or ego.
    1= 2nd best avg
    2= 3rd best avg.
    3= best avg.
    4= 4th best avg.
    5= 5th best avg
    6= 6th best avg
    7..etc.
    (& Disregard averages of players who don't play daily)

    It seems to make sense : )

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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by faffy42 View Post
    Is this nuts? highest batting average is how line up is made. You earn your keep everyday. A lot of changes daily or weekly to line-up possibly, but gotta bunch the good hitters and play for the moment, not for reputation or ego.
    1= 2nd best avg
    2= 3rd best avg.
    3= best avg.
    4= 4th best avg.
    5= 5th best avg
    6= 6th best avg
    7..etc.
    (& Disregard averages of players who don't play daily)

    It seems to make sense : )


    So if you have a singles hitter who has absolutely no power but has the highest average on the team he automatically should hit third?
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  5. #19
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    If you can't keep an OBP above .300, there's no way you should ever hit anyplace other than 8th.
    Extremely SSS alert (136 ABs), but Cozart has a .324/.366/.493/.858 line hitting 2nd in his career.

    I'm not saying it's ideal, but it seems like either Heisey or Cozart is going to hit 2nd. I'd give it to Cozart. Hanigan probably makes the most sense, but we all know that won't happen.

    I know it sucks Ludwick is out, but the 8 guys the Reds are running out is still better offensively than the 8 they did last year, even if it's Heisey/Paul in LF.
    Last edited by reds44; 04-03-2013 at 03:41 AM.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    About about Bruce 3rd and Votto 4th?

    As far as I know this has never been tried, but I think the time has come in regards to Jay Bruce to give him the best chance to succeed.

    If he can't hit with Votto behind him, then he's never going to be anything more than what he has been. I'd drop Phillips to 5, so Votto at least has some protection, and move Cozart to 2nd I guess.

    Choo
    Cozart
    Bruce
    Votto
    Phillips
    Frazier
    Heisey/Paul
    Hanigan

  7. #21
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    So if you have a singles hitter who has absolutely no power but has the highest average on the team he automatically should hit third?
    Yes. Id rather have a guy who is actually hitting the ball more regularly at 3 hole...then someone who less regularly hits for power at that spot.

  8. #22
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by 5TimeWSChamps View Post
    About about Bruce 3rd and Votto 4th?

    As far as I know this has never been tried, but I think the time has come in regards to Jay Bruce to give him the best chance to succeed.

    If he can't hit with Votto behind him, then he's never going to be anything more than what he has been. I'd drop Phillips to 5, so Votto at least has some protection, and move Cozart to 2nd I guess.

    Choo
    Cozart
    Bruce
    Votto
    Phillips
    Frazier
    Heisey/Paul
    Hanigan
    It's an interesting idea. You have to take into consideration how many plate appearances Votto could potentially lose as well as the fact you are putting Votto farther away from the best OB guy on the team (other than Votto, of course).

    I don't hate the idea at all. I actually think I really love the idea of a Choo/Hanigan/Bruce/Votto/Phillips/Frazier/Cozart/Heisey lineup, but like I said we all know Hanigan won't hit 2nd.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  9. #23
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    It's an interesting idea. You have to take into consideration how many plate appearances Votto could potentially lose as well as the fact you are putting Votto farther away from the best OB guy on the team (other than Votto, of course)

    I don't hate the idea at all. I actually think I really love the idea of a Choo/Hanigan/Bruce/Votto/Phillips/Frazier/Cozart/Heisey lineup, but like I said we all know Hanigan won't hit 2nd.
    Yeah, Hanigan is ideal but we all know it won't happen. I think I'd place Cozart there, as a poster above posted his (albeit few AB) numbers hitting 2nd in his career.

  10. #24
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    We all know whose gonna hit #4 now (Phillips). When Hanigan plays he should be batting second IMO.
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  11. #25
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by faffy42 View Post
    Yes. Id rather have a guy who is actually hitting the ball more regularly at 3 hole...then someone who less regularly hits for power at that spot.
    What is this "batting average" you speak of?
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  12. #26
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I know it sucks Ludwick is out, but the 8 guys the Reds are running out is still better offensively than the 8 they did last year, even if it's Heisey/Paul in LF.
    Numbers-wise, it's pretty close to a wash. Heisey is Drew Stubbs v. 1.2 (better bat by a narrow margin), and Choo will hopefully replicate the production that Ryan Ludwick provided. Rest of the team is unchanged.

    Regardless, if we're talking batting order, Heisey and Cozart need to be at the bottom. They're both going to be out-machines -- the only thing you can do is hide them where they'll see the fewest number of ABs.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Heisey and Phillips, at this point, are pretty much interchangeable. Heisey's career OPS and Phillips' OPS last season are identical. They're both free swingers. Heisey provides more speed. So, too, IMO, does Paul. Paul is also the wildcard-- if he does what he did last season, the lineup might actually be better after the injury. He provides patience at the plate (SSS alert-- this could all be mirage), which would improve scoring chances in front of Votto, never a bad thing. An unorthodox platoon where he and Heisey split the ABs should get them to a 105 OPS+ or so, give or take a few points both ways.

    Phillips' OPS line as a cleanup hitter is near 800. That'd get him 80% of the way to Ludwick. But cleanup isn't, if I understand batting order theory correctly, a bad place to put a hitter like Phillips.

    On the other hand, Baker could also plug Cozart into the #2 spot in the order, hoping the 150 ABs seen there are indicative of his comfort and skill levels. In looking at both his overall minor league numbers and the SSS #2 numbers, I feel safe in assuming Cozart can OPS around the 750 mark Phillips has for his career. (It's at least, IMO, a defensible gamble for Baker to take.)

    That leaves a Heisey/ Paul platoon to match Cozart's 7 spot numbers. This should be doable, as discussed above. The platoon should hit with more power and with more patience-- they'll also have more speed on the bases which may allow Baker to gamble a bit with Hanigan/ Mesoraco in the 8 spot and the pitcher bunting after.

    That leaves Phillips, again, to pick up Ludwick's cleanup hitting slack.
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  14. #28
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by 5TimeWSChamps View Post
    About about Bruce 3rd and Votto 4th?

    As far as I know this has never been tried, but I think the time has come in regards to Jay Bruce to give him the best chance to succeed.

    If he can't hit with Votto behind him, then he's never going to be anything more than what he has been. I'd drop Phillips to 5, so Votto at least has some protection, and move Cozart to 2nd I guess.

    Choo
    Cozart
    Bruce
    Votto
    Phillips
    Frazier
    Heisey/Paul
    Hanigan
    I really like the idea of slotting Bruce directly in front of Votto, whether it's 2-3 or 3-4. If Dusty doesn't try it, then I think it should simply be the reverse: protect Votto with Bruce.

    Then, when Mes is in the lineup, I'd bat him 4th. Let's see if is Spring bat is still hot.

    Choo
    Bruce
    Votto
    Mes
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Heisey
    Cozart
    P

    If Mes tears the cover off the ball when he starts, I think he will see more starts. Due to Luddy's absence, Dusty and The Gang may decide they need Mes's pop in the order. Especially if Mes can take care of business behind the dish. There's a lot of pop sitting on the bench with him, so I'd not be too surprised if the Reds try to tap into it more often.
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Numbers-wise, it's pretty close to a wash. Heisey is Drew Stubbs v. 1.2 (better bat by a narrow margin),
    This is simply untrue.

    There was a 100 point difference in OPS between Heisey and Stubbs last season, and a 60 point OPS difference career. That's the same difference between Chris Heisey and Jay Bruce, BTW.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Regardless, if we're talking batting order, Heisey and Cozart need to be at the bottom. They're both going to be out-machines -- the only thing you can do is hide them where they'll see the fewest number of ABs.
    Heisey's career numbers are almost identical to Brandon Phillips. And, while I'd love to see Phillips hitting seventh or eighth in the Reds' lineup, I haven't seen any posts from you or anyone else to suggest he doesn't belong at the top of the order.
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  16. #30
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Ludwick out - The batting order going forward?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Heisey's career numbers are almost identical to Brandon Phillips. And, while I'd love to see Phillips hitting seventh or eighth in the Reds' lineup, I haven't seen any posts from you or anyone else to suggest he doesn't belong at the top of the order.
    Granted, they play different positions but this is a very interesting point. Check out the comparison here. There are some eerily similar performances and trends. I'm not sure if one can draw any conclusions from it as they have radically different playing time but it sure is interesting.

    Nice observation. High five!
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