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Thread: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

  1. #481
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Here's the splits

    If you pitch to Votto in the spot, with a LHP

    Joey Votto
    Career vs LHP .898 OPS
    2010 vs LHP .810 OPS
    2011 vs LHP .987 OPS
    2012 vs LHP .887 OPS

    if you walk Votto and face Phillips
    if you bring in a RHP to face him
    Brandon Phillips
    Career vs RHP .725 OPS
    2010 vs RHP .741 OPS
    2011 vs RHP .798 OPS
    2012 vs RHP .754

    if you HAVE to keep the LHP there to face Bruce

    Brandon Phillips
    Career vs LHP .834 OPS
    2010 .810 OPS
    2011 .851 OPS
    2012 .741 OPS

    I don't see how you can make any justification that you'd rather pitch to Joey in that situation.

    Only answer is ego.


    Edit:

    I went to look at Bruce's number vs LHP, just for completion sake:

    Jay Bruce
    Career vs LHP .747 OPS
    2010 vs LHP .899
    2011 vs RHP .804
    2012 vs LHP .754

    His three year split vs LHP is better than BP's.

    You HAVE to go after BP and hope for a double play to end the game.
    Last edited by Raisor; 04-04-2013 at 07:44 AM.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  3. #482
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    You HAVE to go after BP and hope for a double play to end the game.
    To send it to extra innings in last night's game.
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  4. #483
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    To send it to extra innings in last night's game.
    Right. Yeah. That's what I meant.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  6. #484
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Here's the splits

    If you pitch to Votto in the spot, with a LHP

    Joey Votto
    Career vs LHP .898 OPS
    2010 vs LHP .810 OPS
    2011 vs LHP .987 OPS
    2012 vs LHP .887 OPS

    if you walk Votto and face Phillips
    if you bring in a RHP to face him
    Brandon Phillips
    Career vs RHP .725 OPS
    2010 vs RHP .741 OPS
    2011 vs RHP .798 OPS
    2012 vs RHP .754

    if you HAVE to keep the LHP there to face Bruce

    Brandon Phillips
    Career vs LHP .834 OPS
    2010 .810 OPS
    2011 .851 OPS
    2012 .741 OPS

    I don't see how you can make any justification that you'd rather pitch to Joey in that situation.

    Only answer is ego.


    Edit:

    I went to look at Bruce's number vs LHP, just for completion sake:

    Jay Bruce
    Career vs LHP .747 OPS
    2010 vs LHP .899
    2011 vs RHP .804
    2012 vs LHP .754

    His three year split vs LHP is better than BP's.

    You HAVE to go after BP and hope for a double play to end the game.
    Your conclusion may well be right, but to ignore how this particular pitcher does against RH and LH pitchers is ignoring half of the relevant stats.

    Downs gives up a .488 OPS last year vs. LH hitters, .813 vs. RH hitters. That shouldn't be ignored.

  7. #485
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Your conclusion may well be right, but to ignore how this particular pitcher does against RH and LH pitchers is ignoring half of the relevant stats.

    Downs gives up a .488 OPS last year vs. LH hitters, .813 vs. RH hitters. That shouldn't be ignored.
    Right. I think that tends to get overlooked an awful lot when looking at splits both ways.

    Basically, if you're Scioscia you need two outs. Do you believe you'll get those with your best LHP going against the Reds best left handed batter, walking the best right handed batter, and then getting the next left handed batter?

    Or are you better off walking the best left handed batter, trying to get two outs with no where to put Phillips(who kills Lefties.)
    It's a more difficult question than I believed last night.

    If anything this validates Dusty's theory on the importance of splitting lefty bats up.
    Last edited by Hoosier Red; 04-04-2013 at 08:29 AM.
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  8. #486
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    As an aside, whoever sets up today's game thread, Jamie Ramsey noted on Twitter that today's game is the 20,000 game in the franchise's history.
    In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either. - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"

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  9. #487
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Your conclusion may well be right, but to ignore how this particular pitcher does against RH and LH pitchers is ignoring half of the relevant stats.

    Downs gives up a .488 OPS last year vs. LH hitters, .813 vs. RH hitters. That shouldn't be ignored.
    Let's look at the three year splits as we did the hitters:

    Scott Downs
    Career vs LHB .604

    2010 vs LHB .488
    2011 vs LHB .483
    2012 vs LHB .488
    3 year Average (roughly) .486

    Career vs RHB .762
    2010 vs RHB .637
    2011 vs RHB .581
    2012 vs RHB .813
    3 year average (roughly) .677


    If you take Votto's rough three year average vs LHP .912 and Down's three year average vs LHB .486 and average THOSE together you get .699

    If you take Phillips rough three year average vs LHP .800(assuming you walk Votto, keep Downs in to pitch to Phillips so he can pitch to Bruce) and Down's rough three year average vs RHP .677 and average them together you get .738.

    Roughly 40 OPS points advantage for Phillips over Votto in that situation.

    THEN you can get into the non-stat part of the game. Votto was 0 for the season, and you could say he was due. Phillips already had a big hit in the game, and might not have been due AND he is a threat for a DP.

    Advantage Votto, IMO.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  10. #488
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    One justification for Scioscia is the need for pitchers. He was on his fourth reliever in a tied game he wanted to take into extra-innings. Walk Joey, bring in the righty and he's on five, meaning he has one more plus his closer. He had basically Mark Lowe (R) who pitched two innings on Monday, Jerome Williams (R) who is the swingman/long man and Frieri, the closer. He really needed Downs to get that inning.
    In the full context of the game/season, Scioscia's choice makes a bit more sense.
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  11. #489
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Your conclusion may well be right, but to ignore how this particular pitcher does against RH and LH pitchers is ignoring half of the relevant stats.

    Downs gives up a .488 OPS last year vs. LH hitters, .813 vs. RH hitters. That shouldn't be ignored.
    Agreed. And it should also be noted that prior to that AB, Joey hadn't gotten a hit yet this season...and Brandon had just hit a massive HR earlier in the game. I know they're "small sample sizes"...but sometimes those matter too.
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  12. #490
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    One justification for Scioscia is the need for pitchers. He was on his fourth reliever in a tied game he wanted to take into extra-innings. Walk Joey, bring in the righty and he's on five, meaning he has one more plus his closer. He had basically Mark Lowe (R) who pitched two innings on Monday, Jerome Williams (R) who is the swingman/long man and Frieri, the closer. He really needed Downs to get that inning.
    In the full context of the game/season, Scioscia's choice makes a bit more sense.
    If I am prioritizing between getting out of the 9th tied or worrying who is going to pitch the 14th inning, well then walk Votto and bring on the righthander. If you don't get through the 9th then there is no 14th to worry about. Votto does not get to hit in that situation. That is how I look at it.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

  13. #491
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Agreed. And it should also be noted that prior to that AB, Joey hadn't gotten a hit yet this season...and Brandon had just hit a massive HR earlier in the game. I know they're "small sample sizes"...but sometimes those matter too.
    or you could say Votto was due and Phillips already had done his part.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  14. #492
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    I personally don't take the "he's due" factor into account at all. You can just as easily say "he's stuck in a rut - attack him".

  15. #493
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    Re: 4/3/13 Opening Night: Reds vs. Angels

    That had to be one of the fastest three-man, ninth-inning rallies every. First pitch hits Choo, first pitch is bunted by Heisey and first pitch is whacked by Votto for the game winner.
    Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!

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