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Thread: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

  1. #16
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    45 for the WC, 56 for the division.

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    LoganBuck (08-14-2013), Slyder (08-15-2013)

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  4. #17
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    41 for the WC and 51 for the division.

  5. #18
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    40 for a playoff spot.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  6. #19
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition


  7. #20
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    48 for the Division, 39 for the Wild Card ( I will note that these numbers are different than those at https://twitter.com/RedsMagicNumber but I think my math is right. Pirates have 48 losses so the most wins they can get to is 114. The Reds are at 67 wins so to get to 115 they need
    get 48 wins (this can also be lowered by Pirates losses). The closest wild card foe is Arizona. They have 57 losses. the highes number of wins they can reach is 105. 106-67= 39.

    Wild Card



    Division
    Last edited by klw; 08-14-2013 at 10:22 AM.

  8. #21
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    47 for the Division,


    38 for the Wild Card
    Last edited by klw; 08-14-2013 at 09:19 PM.

  9. #22
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    It's been a good week. The magic number dropped 9 for the division, and 7 for the wild card. We need a couple more weeks just like it...
    __________________
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  10. #23
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    I'm not sure how they come up with their numbers, but Baseball Prospectus has the Reds at a higher % of winning the WS than the Cards or Pirates.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

    Making the playoffs all the way up to 94.8%

  11. #24
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    I'm not sure how they come up with their numbers, but Baseball Prospectus has the Reds at a higher % of winning the WS than the Cards or Pirates.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

    Making the playoffs all the way up to 94.8%
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/gl...&category=true
    In order to figure the WS Win Pct, we use the odds ratio to figure out a team's expected win percentage in various playoff rounds, and then use the binomial probability mass function to find the odds of winning a five or seven game series as appropriate.

  12. #25
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    29 for a playoff spot.



  13. #26
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    Is it "next season" yet?

  14. #27
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition

    Love this thread!
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  15. #28
    Member Gizmo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition



    playoffs are getting closer. Can't wait until this gets to 0 and we're counting down the division.
    Is it "next season" yet?

  16. #29
    Member Gizmo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition



    Lose and still get 1 game closer to the post season. Thanks Phillies.
    Is it "next season" yet?

  17. #30
    Member Gizmo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Magic Number 2013 Edition



    I know it's been a few days, but is no one else wanting to count down? We could be inside 20 by the end of the weekend.
    Is it "next season" yet?


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