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Thread: Cingrani...

  1. #121
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by coachpipe View Post
    Whenever I hear someone say this guy is a great prospect I tend to think of Brandon Larson
    Brandon Larson was never a great prospect. He was the best prospect in a completely barren Reds system, but he never got any play in the leaguewide rankings.

    Larson was a horrible overdraft by the Reds, who got fooled by his awesome senior season at LSU. Larson was drafted three times prior to the Reds picking him up, and all three times he was taken after the 35th round. Then one good senior season later the Reds took him with the 14th overall pick in the 1st round.

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  3. #122
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Doug,

    Did you get to see him last night? and is so what did you think.

    thanks

    love what you bring to the board...

  4. #123
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    Re: Cingrani...

    I don't have a GIF in front of me, but his slider again last night again was very slow, as compared to his (plus) fastball. I charted three or four that were 15 or so mph slower than his fastball. His change wasn't quite as good, as his arm speed slowed enough to make it fairly obvious he was throwing something off-speed.

    One thing I'd be interested in others discussing is his cut fastball. I think he's throwing a four-seamer a lot more this year, and the cutter is his true "out" pitch at around 89-91. That's the pitch that he has good movement on and great control of.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  5. #124
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Cingrani is not nearly the prospect Miller is.
    LOL. We'll see about that. I couldn't disagree more, especially with you adding the word "nearly" in there. Yeah, Cingrani is not even close to Shelby Miller. Riiiight. You keep believing what the "analysts" say, I'll keep paying attention to their stats.

  6. #125
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    I would certainly trade Tony Cingrani for Shelby Miller. Miller is one of the top 5 or 6 pitching prospects in baseball. Miller is more than a year younger and has better stuff. Cingrani has the advantage of being a lefty and is slightly bigger. Cingrani is a very good prospect and is off to a great start to the 2013 season, but he is nowhere close to Miller, Cole, Bundy, Fernandez, Walker, Wheeler etc in terms of projection in my opinion.

    The prospect ranking gurus have all seen him throw and have seen his excellent 2012 statistics yet they still ranked him way down the list of pitching prospects. The best I have seen him ranked anywhere is the #64 overall prospect by Scout Magazine. Most of the ranks have him 90+. A couple of great outings so far in 2013 won't jump him to the top of the rankings just yet, but they should garner him a lot more attention from everyone.

    On my personal list I have Shelby Miller ranked #10 and Cingrani ranked #81 overall, with Stephenson at #50, Corcino at #99 and Hamilton at #21. I also have Travieso at #178 and Winker at #196.
    Amazing that even Reds fans underrate Cingrani. He's way better than the #81 prospect in all of MLB. Way better.

    Also, Shelby Miller is extremely overrated. These analysts keep ranking him so high to justify their faulty rankings from the previous year. In no way would I trade Cingrani for Miller.

  7. #126
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Mike Leake now has reason to be looking over his shoulder. If he stumbles and Cingrani continues on this hot path, we may see Cingrani by mid-season.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

  8. #127
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    Shelby Miller vs. Cingrani

    I put my money on Cingrani.....every time. Cingrani has proven his skeptics wrong at every minor league stop (level). I've enjoyed reading things like "wait until advanced hitting at the next level catches up to hiim". Cingrani is always going to fly under the radar and that's why he's ranked low by the so-called experts.
    Exactly.

  9. #128
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Cingrani and Miller are a lot closer than the prospect lists would have people think.
    Boom.

  10. #129
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    Re: Cingrani...

    LOL. We'll see about that. I couldn't disagree more, especially with you adding the word "nearly" in there. Yeah, Cingrani is not even close to Shelby Miller. Riiiight. You keep believing what the "analysts" say, I'll keep paying attention to their stats.
    Cingrani has clearly proven himself to be a better prospect than expected, and his success at the upper minors suggests he will be a reasonable major leaguer of some point.

    But you can't just "pay attention to hsi stats".

    It's both. Miller has qualities in his favour that project him to improve at a higher rate going forward, while Cingrani might be close to maxing out what he can get out of his arsenal. For example, Matt Maloney had great stats at the AA/AAA levels, yet when he came up to the big leagues, his stuff just simply wasn't good enough or projectable to improve further.

    Now Cingrani has much better stuff than Maloney, but at the same time, he might fit into that mold of failing to improve once he settles into the big leagues. His arsenal is likely good enough right now that he wont get roughed up at the majors, but if you asked me which guy (Miller or Cingrani) has the better chance to be an ace level pitcher, I think it's an easy choice in terms of Miller.

    But if you also asked which guy would flame out into oblivion, considering his past issues, I'd probably suggest Miller has a better chance at that.

    I'd take Miller over Cingrani considering the overall package, and I think it's a very incomplete analysis for either side to go purely off of projection or stats which makes the numerous condescending posts at others who happen to disagree pretty embarassing (especially without establishing any kind of reaosnable track record on prospect development in the past).

  11. #130
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Cingrani has clearly proven himself to be a better prospect than expected, and his success at the upper minors suggests he will be a reasonable major leaguer of some point.

    But you can't just "pay attention to hsi stats".

    It's both. Miller has qualities in his favour that project him to improve at a higher rate going forward, while Cingrani might be close to maxing out what he can get out of his arsenal. For example, Matt Maloney had great stats at the AA/AAA levels, yet when he came up to the big leagues, his stuff just simply wasn't good enough or projectable to improve further.

    Now Cingrani has much better stuff than Maloney, but at the same time, he might fit into that mold of failing to improve once he settles into the big leagues. His arsenal is likely good enough right now that he wont get roughed up at the majors, but if you asked me which guy (Miller or Cingrani) has the better chance to be an ace level pitcher, I think it's an easy choice in terms of Miller.

    But if you also asked which guy would flame out into oblivion, considering his past issues, I'd probably suggest Miller has a better chance at that.

    I'd take Miller over Cingrani considering the overall package, and I think it's a very incomplete analysis for either side to go purely off of projection or stats which makes the numerous condescending posts at others who happen to disagree pretty embarassing (especially without establishing any kind of reaosnable track record on prospect development in the past).
    At least you understand that there is room for middle ground. It's as if some people are saying "Well, Shelby Miller must be better since he's ranked higher." False. I think it's about a 50/50 proposition at best and I would take Cingrani. His stats are better, he's a lefty, his fastball tops out much-higher than the "experts" would lead you to believe, and his secondary pitches aren't too bad as it turns out. He's extremely underrated IMO and Miller is extremely overrated.

    Also, glad you are not a GM since you would take the guy that, by your own measures, has a better chance at "flaming out into oblivion."
    Last edited by Blitz Dorsey; 04-10-2013 at 11:30 AM.

  12. #131
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Strikeouts are fascist.

    He's basically a LH version of Logan Ondrusek.

    According to ESPN, reports from the stadium had Cingrani touching 95 and 96.

    Another friend/ part-time bird scout went to the game and said his breaking ball (slider), while thrown infrequently, broke well and often. (In his estimation, one hanger all night.) Interestingly, according to the bird scout, Cingrani apparently played up in the zone almost all night. That made his slurve (scout's word, not mine) and change more effective. He insists that you can't stay up there as much as Cingrani did last night and be successful in the majors. He also said Cingrani is better, in his opinion, than Leake right now.
    Man, that is an exciting scouting report. .thanks for posting it.
    Another article posted here said Cingrani might be the Reds #1 prospect now.
    I know RZ will disagree, but I tend to agree. (I value certainty in being a ML contributor over upside that might take 3-4 more years to develop)
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #132
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    Did you watch? He did have a second.....and a third pitch although used infrequently. He absolutely buckled a LHB with a great breaking slider for a K.
    .
    The other poster was making a joke. A frequent criticism of Cingrani in his early days was that he only had one pitch (FB).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #133
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Also, glad you are not a GM since you would take the guy that, by your own measures, has a better chance at "flaming out into oblivion."
    Again, the constant pot shots are just embarassing. THis is the second time this month when somebody has told me "I am glad you aren't GM because of....." simply because we have a disagreement in opnion.

    I also think that Chris Heisey has a better chance of being a major league player of some assortment than Shelby Miller (because he already is adding some major league value), but would I trade him for a top pitching prospect? Of course. By you're token, absolute certainty >>>>>> upside, which is not always the case. You need to weigh them.

    Cingrani is more polished at this point. That is worth something. It's probably worth a lot.

    But so is ace level ability. Most people on this board would prefer to roll the dice with Chapman as a starter, rather than take the certainty of being an ace level reliever.

    That doesn't make that thought process completely inept, it's simply the recognition that shooting for the moon when the upside is so great and rare that it might make sense in some cases to bypass a medium level certainty in favour of playing for the biggest reward.

    But I'm not sure why I bother. Can't wait to see how you spin my argument next.

  15. #134
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Cingrani and Miller are a lot closer than the prospect lists would have people think.
    I will agree with this.

    But I wouldn't have 3 weeks ago.

    Cingrani is showing something now, that he hasn't in the past. That is a change in skillset. That is something that matters.

  16. #135
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    True ... but rankings change.

    When Cingrani was ranked, he was thought to be a guy who worked at 89-91 and 'touched' 92-93. This season we have seen him 'touch' 97 on more than a few occasions. Even if Louisville's radar gun is running a 2-3 mph hot, that is still more velocity than we have seen from him in the past. If his fastball really has jumped up a tick, that would definitely have an impact on scouts opinions about his future. His first two starts at AAA would also open some eyes.
    That Louisville gun is 2-3 MPH hot, not really a question at this point. Several guys are throwing that much higher than they have in the past, so I don't think it is all of them just picking up extra velocity all at once.. So he is more likely touching 94/95. Still, certainly better than he was last year.


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