Not trying to be argumentative, but the controversial pitch from this year looks like one that Big Leaguers would crush if they were sitting on it. It totally locked up the hitter, but he is a minor leaguer who wasn't looking for the breaking ball.
The "nice looking slider" from 2012 looks pretty nasty.
The "loopy slider" seems to tail away, no?
We talked about it last year. I mentioned it last year in the thread where we (you and I) discussed Cingrani's potential. I mentioned his loopy slider then. Others also mentioned it, IIRC. (Though perhaps not.)Originally Posted by dougdirt
I don't know what game it was. I don't even know what thread it was.
I do know that we've already had this conversation, though.
This is an empty statement.
Many posters on this site insisted that Cingrani was likely to improve the consistency on his off speed offerings as he matured. (Like almost all minor league pitchers.)
Of course it's improved. Almost all good pitchers improve their off-speed offering over the course of their minor league careers. That's what the minor leagues are for, after all.
I did. I have you scouting reports that described a "loopy" slider from the beginning of his time as a possible draftee. I gave you Cingrani's own comments about his slider. I gave you comments from, IIRC, one of his pitching coaches. I can't give you video, but that's about all that's left, doug.
Again, dunno. I believe I told you in the thread where we discussed Cingrani's potential. If not, I don't have that information handy. I do know that I saw it on video, so there you go. It has to be out there somewhere.
There's a shock. Each of them parrot the other. (Though I do think Sickels often is able to ignore some of the typical noise.) And remarkably few writers actually see any games, doug. You know that. It's all phone calls and taking information from one site and expanding on it a bit.
For example, I hope you remember the bit about Hamilton's "weak arm," as you were the one, IIRC, that finally put that puppy to rest. It was a throwaway line that snowballed into insistences by many-- including some on this board-- who questioned whether the kids could throw at all. Writers simply had to find something to balance out their articles to keep from sounding like fanboys.
Cingrani's in the same boat, but it's even more pronounced because he had no pedigree, aside from a Division I spot at Rice. A third round isn't supposed to put up arcade numbers across three levels. Especially because wasn't on anyone's list. Not as a sleeper. Not as a solid prospect.
So they had to give reasons why.
Yeah, great fastball, they said. Great command. But he needs to work on his secondary pitches.
Well, of course he does. Almost all minor league prospects need that particular work.
Then it becomes a problem that could expose him as a helium prospect as he progresses. Then it becomes an almost sure thing.
Never mind the production. Never mind his K totals. Never mind the hit totals. Never mind that he dominates leagues that aren't supposed to be dominated by any pitcher, let alone one with only one pitch. (Because, by that point, he only had the fastball. His changeup went from plus to good to acceptable to questionable to fringy.)
Cingrani's always had a slider. It's not always been consistent. It's getting better. It's still, IMO, a show-me pitch. And, again, IMO, that may be all he needs to be a starter in the majors.
The top one, from 2013, was 75 MPH. The bottom one, no velocity on.
Still, two different pitches. The bottom pitch has no horizontal movement to it. It goes straight to the zone and breaks downward. The top pitch comes across the zone and breaks downward. The middle pitch is a pure slider. Goes straight, drops off.
The different camera angles may be affecting perception here.
Both pitches are slow and "loopy". Similar release points. Similar hand placement. One breaks a bit more. Maybe.
Big Leaguers will crush most any pitch if they can sit on it. That is why it is important to throw more than one pitch. When Cingrani can throw 91 and mix in a nice change up too, you can't just sit breaking ball or you have no chance on the other two.
The 2012 nice slider was indeed nice. Unfortunately, there weren't many like that and a lot that looked like 81 MPH straight fastballs.
The one from this year has the hitter turning away because he thinks he is about to get hit with it. The catcher catches it over the middle of the plate. That isn't the camera angle.
I went back and looked at the video. I even provided it. The loopy slider from last year has a one plane break. The one this year breaks on both planes. Different pitch.
And I showed you where after his first start this year, his current pitching coach called it a curveball, not a slider. Tony after that game did call it a slider. Hence, all of the confusion.I did. I have you scouting reports that described a "loopy" slider from the beginning of his time as a possible draftee. I gave you Cingrani's own comments about his slider. I gave you comments from, IIRC, one of his pitching coaches. I can't give you video, but that's about all that's left, doug.
I know that BA guys don't scout their own stuff. I know KG didn't. I know that Jason Parks does. I know that the scouts the previous guys talk to, do. I know that John Sickels does. All agreed that his slider he was throwing last year pretty much sucked.There's a shock. Each of them parrot the other. (Though I do think Sickels often is able to ignore some of the typical noise.) And remarkably few writers actually see any games, doug. You know that. It's all phone calls and taking information from one site and expanding on it a bit.
It wasn't really a throw away though. Hamilton did have a weak arm most nights. It wasn't because he had a truly weak arm, it was because his mechanics sucked and didn't often throw it right to show off his actual arm strength. For someone who saw him one or two series, they may never had a chance to see his strong arm in action because he didn't use it much because of the mechanics going on for 95% of the throws he made. Likewise, with Cingrani, he would flash a good slider now and then, but most of them sucked. They were flat without bite. A flat slider is just a slow fastball without movement. People saw those bad ones 50% of the time, some poor ones another 40% and a good one or real good one 10% of the time. Top it off with that he only threw 10 a game and you could see him twice in a season and only see one real nice looking slider. That is why it is good to make the phone calls and to see a guy as much as possible.For example, I hope you remember the bit about Hamilton's "weak arm," as you were the one, IIRC, that finally put that puppy to rest. It was a throwaway line that snowballed into insistences by many-- including some on this board-- who questioned whether the kids could throw at all. Writers simply had to find something to balance out their articles to keep from sounding like fanboys.
Actually, there were several people who upon being drafted, called Cingrani a sleeper. More so as a reliever, but it wasn't like he was a 25th rounder. The guy was taken in the Top 100 of the entire draft for a reason.Cingrani's in the same boat, but it's even more pronounced because he had no pedigree, aside from a Division I spot at Rice. A third round isn't supposed to put up arcade numbers across three levels. Especially because wasn't on anyone's list. Not as a sleeper. Not as a solid prospect.
Where did this happen?His changeup went from plus to good to acceptable to questionable to fringy.)
Yeah, he has always had a slider. But most of the time it was a terrible pitch and it had been that way for a while.Cingrani's always had a slider. It's not always been consistent. It's getting better. It's still, IMO, a show-me pitch. And, again, IMO, that may be all he needs to be a starter in the majors.
Even as a show me pitch, which you may be right that it is all he needs with the FB/CH being that good, it is actually a show me pitch at this point. The slider he threw most of the time last year wasn't. It was a BP fastball. Straight as an arrow and 80 MPH at the belt because it wouldn't bite.
It was simply that his fastball is so dominant that all he needed was improvement with the secondary stuff -- whether that was sharpening what he had or expanding the repertoire, didn't matter. It was reasonable to think he could -- he's young and had always relied so heavily on the fastball that all it would take would be some "time on task" with good coaching. That's how development in pro ball is supposed to work -- learning happens.But no amount of numbers should give anyone confidence about developing a pitch.
That is how it is supposed to work, but not how it always does. Cingrani had been through JUCO, College and three professional coaches coming into this season and still hadn't really shown much improvement in his breaking ball. I am happy to see that he is being rather consistent with it, but I am completely understanding as to why people didn't expect it to improve at that point.
Doug,
You mentioned the new curve ball and how hitters think they are going to get hit with it and start to move out of the way...
Does this give us an indication that he is really really deceptive in his delivery and batters just don't pick him up at all?
No. Plenty of guys throw a curveball that starts at the shoulder of the hitter then drops across over the plate to a same handed hitter.
I'm not crazy about Dusty saying Cingrani would be the first pitcher called up to fill in for a starting pitcher. I really hope that Walt isn't on the same page.
So, if Prospect A had a 10 % chance of flame out, and a 90% chance of being a #1 starter, you'd chose Prospect B who has a 5% chance of flame out, and a 95% chance of being an average pitcher?
Because that is what you said, the "flame out " projection is all that you'd base your choice on.
It's not unusual that the higher upside prospect is also the higher risk to achieve that level.
GM's generally prefer the prospect with the higher upside (especially when that upside is #1 starter potential), as middle of the road players are much easier to obtain.
Why?
Go BLUE!!!
Yeah, why would anyone not be on board with Dusty saying that? Cingrani sure as hell better be the next man up if one of the Reds' starters goes down. Who would you rather see out there? Galarraga?
Cingrani is not only the best choice but the obvious one. I'm glad Dusty said it so it's already on the record.
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