I remember reading a debate once, perhaps in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, about what defines a pitch. Is it defined by how it is thrown or how it moves? Pitches aren't so discrete and consistent in how they behave that such perfectly MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) labels work.
Is it possible that he is throwing the ball using the grip of slider but doing something different with his wrist/release such that it causes more vertical break than it used to?
There's always been talk about Arroyo basically inventing pitches as he goes -- same with many of the Japanese pitchers. Why does it have to be one thing or the other? Why not just say that he throws a breaking ball that tends to move a certain way and be done with it?
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 02:00 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Don't know if you've read this, but sounds like you have:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philoso...Investigations
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Fascinating. Never heard of it. But yeah, this is basically that -- there is a single set of words being used to describe what are are two different sets of highly correlated things. It generally works pretty well, but there are times when the overlaps cause problems.
A pitcher cares more about how you throw the pitch. An announcer cares more about what the pitch does in physical space and why/how batters react.
Say "slider" (from a righty) and most of us probably have a picture in our heads of a pitch that moves something like 2:00 to 8:00 down & away from the RH batter and a curve as something that moves 12:00 to 6:00 or 1:00 to 7:00. But I would imagine most pitchers here slider and think first of a certain grip and wrist pronation.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 07:01 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
So, after two starts and going back to chart the Pitch F/X data here is what I have come to: Cingrani is throwing a strange pitch.
BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. Pitch F/X is calling it a slider. Why the difference? Well, it is pretty simple. The horizontal movement is like that of a slider for the most part. It doesn't have much horizontal break, mostly in that -1 inch to 2 inch range, which is where most sliders are. So the MLB Advanced Media algorithm is calling it a slider for that reason. However on the vertical movement, it is coming in at -5 to -10 inches of break, which is where you expect to see curveballs at, which is why BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. A slider actually tends to have slight "rise" to it when charted, so -5 to -10 inches is a big difference. Here is the chart from brooksbaseball for Cingrani in 2013. It lists both a slider and a curveball. You can see that the two are grouped close together, but there are two different "groupings" with the pitches.
Seems like he may be getting some slurvy action on the pitch from what the data is showing so far.
Curve, slurve, slider -- does it really matter? It's the evolution of Cingrani's secondary stuff. Many will recall the struggles Homer Bailey had in honing his secondary pitches (gone, for example, is the 12-6 curve he came to the bigs with). Cingrani's secondary stuff will continue to evolve. And chances are it will continue to improve, supplementing what makes him the prime prospect he is -- his extraordinary fastball.
Didn't see much out his changeup last night.
What I find the most intriguing is how Cingrani pitches to MLB hitters who are DEAD RED fastball hitters since Cingrani relies heavily on his fastball. Ransom and Soriano are very good fastball hitters and both had good nights against Cingrani.
Yeah. This doesn't really bode well IMO. Once the league gets a good read on him, he could struggle. There are lots of good fastball hitters around. Cingrani would probably upgrade the pen right now, but he's an unfinished product as a starter and does not need to take anyone's job in the rotation. Once Cueto is back, if everyone is healthy, Cingrani needs to go back to AAA even though his stats may say otherwise. Of course, if the Reds wanted to upgrade one of the 2 or 3 dead spots in the pen with him as a move to try to win this year, I'd be OK with that. As a starter, he needs more seasoning IMO.
Could be pretty darned good in a couple years though.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
redsfandan (04-29-2013)
texasdave (04-24-2013)
Three points. 1. There's no absolute fixed difference between a curve and a slider, but to the pitcher, it will be about hand action. Classic distinction is turning the door knob for a slider, pulling the shade for a curve. But arm angle is also important. I haven't seen enough of Cingrani to know if his arm angle has been modified over the last year or so but if he's getting different action on his breaking ball, it may be that he has. Watching his two starts with the Reds on TV, I thought his arm angle was a bit lower in the first start than the second with the fastball and the breaking ball angle somewhat higher than the fastball in both (in other words, fastball and breaking ball angle more similar, less distinguishable to the hitters in the second start, which I thought distinctly better all around). But these are observations based on a very small sample size, to be sure.
2. If Cueto can come back, I think we need to be sure Cingrani continues to get innings--therefore back to Louisville. The only problem with this is that he has been so dominant there that there may not be that much for him to learn there.
3. On the question of his fastball and what it bodes for him. I say it's good. He's throwing very hard for a left handed starter.
Don't get me wrong, I love his fastball, I just think he needs more of a mix to get through better line-ups multiple times or to be successful later in the year after the league is getting its second look at him. I'd hate to see the Reds cast a starter aside or get one out of the starting innings routine only to see Cingrani start to struggle in a couple months while the team is left short handed. There is plenty for him to work on in AAA even if the competition may make it difficult to judgw whether or not its working. He's a nice guy to have in reserve right now, but when the other five are healthy, he's in line behind them.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Generally speaking, most slurves don't show up quite like this one does. In fact, after talking about it with some other Pitch F/X guys, it may be that Cingrani is getting a true 12-6 action on his breaking ball instead of a more 11-5 or 10-4 like a lot of curveballs or slurves do.
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