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Thread: Cingrani...

  1. #256
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Not sure if you DVR the games, but if you do, go back and watch the 4th inning. You'll see a real nice slurve (or whatever you want to call it) from Cingrani and Welsh immediately talks about it. (Welsh calls it a "breaking ball.")
    My dumb ace forgot to DVR the game. Pretty upset about it. This weekend I am going to look into the Pitch F/X with more detail and am going to chart each breaking ball to look at them more in detail.

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  3. #257
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    It was hilarious man. It was as if Chris Welsh had been reading this board. He literally started off the broadcast by saying "There is some debate whether Cingrani throws a slider or a curve. He calls it a slider. I guess we'll find out tonight."

    I almost fell out of my chair laughing. The slider/curve debate makes it to the Reds' TV broadcast! I'm not joking. And some of you thought it was just a silly RedsZone thing.

    My professional opinion? (OK, my "amateur" opinion.) Cingrani throws a "slurve." I was a pitcher back in the day and this is similar to the breaking ball I threw. Not a true slider, not a true curve. Cingrani calls it a slider, but baseball coaches would call that a "slurve." I had no idea what to call the pitch I threw (accidentally invented it while throwing warm-ups one day) and my coach said "You're throwing a slurve." I was like "a slurve?" I had never heard of that term before. But I've heard it several times since and that's exactly what Cingrani is throwing.

    Thank goodness he throws it better than I did. Even better: Thank goodness he's left-handed and throws his fastball about 15 MPH faster than I could. (Hey, I was a decent HS pitcher though.)

    PS: He did throw some slurves tonight, Doug. Took him until the 4th inning to throw a good one, but he threw a few of them. The vast majority of his pitches were fastballs (of course) and he threw his change more than his slurve. But he did throw his slurve a few times. He had a real good one in the 4th and Welsh immediately said "That was the best breaking ball of the night by far from Cingrani."
    I remember reading a debate once, perhaps in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, about what defines a pitch. Is it defined by how it is thrown or how it moves? Pitches aren't so discrete and consistent in how they behave that such perfectly MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) labels work.

    Is it possible that he is throwing the ball using the grip of slider but doing something different with his wrist/release such that it causes more vertical break than it used to?

    There's always been talk about Arroyo basically inventing pitches as he goes -- same with many of the Japanese pitchers. Why does it have to be one thing or the other? Why not just say that he throws a breaking ball that tends to move a certain way and be done with it?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 02:00 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #258
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I remember reading a debate once, perhaps in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, about what defines a pitch. Is it defined by how it is thrown or how it moves? Pitches aren't so discrete and consistent in how they behave that such perfectly MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) labels work.

    Is it possible that he is throwing the ball using the grip of slider but doing something different with his wrist/release such that it causes more vertical break than it used to?

    There's always been talk about Arroyo basically inventing pitches as he goes -- same with many of the Japanese pitchers. Why does it have to be one thing or the other? Why not just say that he throws a breaking ball that tends to move a certain way and be done with it?
    Don't know if you've read this, but sounds like you have:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philoso...Investigations
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #259
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I remember reading a debate once, perhaps in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, about what defines a pitch. Is it defined by how it is thrown or how it moves? Pitches aren't so discrete and consistent in how they behave that such perfectly MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) labels work.

    Is it possible that he is throwing the ball using the grip of slider but doing something different with his wrist/release such that it causes more vertical break than it used to?

    There's always been talk about Arroyo basically inventing pitches as he goes -- same with many of the Japanese pitchers. Why does it have to be one thing or the other? Why not just say that he throws a breaking ball that tends to move a certain way and be done with it?
    That's absolutely possible -- he might have a slider grip and thinks he's throwing a slider, but it's actually more of a "slurve." (It's definitely not a true curve.)

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Don't know if you've read this, but sounds like you have:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philoso...Investigations
    Fascinating. Never heard of it. But yeah, this is basically that -- there is a single set of words being used to describe what are are two different sets of highly correlated things. It generally works pretty well, but there are times when the overlaps cause problems.

    A pitcher cares more about how you throw the pitch. An announcer cares more about what the pitch does in physical space and why/how batters react.

    Say "slider" (from a righty) and most of us probably have a picture in our heads of a pitch that moves something like 2:00 to 8:00 down & away from the RH batter and a curve as something that moves 12:00 to 6:00 or 1:00 to 7:00. But I would imagine most pitchers here slider and think first of a certain grip and wrist pronation.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-19-2013 at 07:01 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #261
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    So, after two starts and going back to chart the Pitch F/X data here is what I have come to: Cingrani is throwing a strange pitch.

    BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. Pitch F/X is calling it a slider. Why the difference? Well, it is pretty simple. The horizontal movement is like that of a slider for the most part. It doesn't have much horizontal break, mostly in that -1 inch to 2 inch range, which is where most sliders are. So the MLB Advanced Media algorithm is calling it a slider for that reason. However on the vertical movement, it is coming in at -5 to -10 inches of break, which is where you expect to see curveballs at, which is why BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. A slider actually tends to have slight "rise" to it when charted, so -5 to -10 inches is a big difference. Here is the chart from brooksbaseball for Cingrani in 2013. It lists both a slider and a curveball. You can see that the two are grouped close together, but there are two different "groupings" with the pitches.



    Seems like he may be getting some slurvy action on the pitch from what the data is showing so far.

  8. #262
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Seems like he may be getting some slurvy action on the pitch from what the data is showing so far.
    Doug, what do you think of his change-up based on his previous history and his last two starts? I don't see much tail to it myself but that could be me.

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    Re: Cingrani...

    Curve, slurve, slider -- does it really matter? It's the evolution of Cingrani's secondary stuff. Many will recall the struggles Homer Bailey had in honing his secondary pitches (gone, for example, is the 12-6 curve he came to the bigs with). Cingrani's secondary stuff will continue to evolve. And chances are it will continue to improve, supplementing what makes him the prime prospect he is -- his extraordinary fastball.

    Didn't see much out his changeup last night.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Cingrani...

    What I find the most intriguing is how Cingrani pitches to MLB hitters who are DEAD RED fastball hitters since Cingrani relies heavily on his fastball. Ransom and Soriano are very good fastball hitters and both had good nights against Cingrani.

  11. #265
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    What I find the most intriguing is how Cingrani pitches to MLB hitters who are DEAD RED fastball hitters since Cingrani relies heavily on his fastball. Ransom and Soriano are very good fastball hitters and both had good nights against Cingrani.
    Yeah. This doesn't really bode well IMO. Once the league gets a good read on him, he could struggle. There are lots of good fastball hitters around. Cingrani would probably upgrade the pen right now, but he's an unfinished product as a starter and does not need to take anyone's job in the rotation. Once Cueto is back, if everyone is healthy, Cingrani needs to go back to AAA even though his stats may say otherwise. Of course, if the Reds wanted to upgrade one of the 2 or 3 dead spots in the pen with him as a move to try to win this year, I'd be OK with that. As a starter, he needs more seasoning IMO.

    Could be pretty darned good in a couple years though.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  13. #266
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    What I find the most intriguing is how Cingrani pitches to MLB hitters who are DEAD RED fastball hitters since Cingrani relies heavily on his fastball. Ransom and Soriano are very good fastball hitters and both had good nights against Cingrani.
    Every major league hitter is a "good fastball hitter" -- you don't make the bigs if you can't hit a fastball.

    It's one of the silliest baseball-isms there is.
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    texasdave (04-24-2013)

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    Re: Cingrani...

    Three points. 1. There's no absolute fixed difference between a curve and a slider, but to the pitcher, it will be about hand action. Classic distinction is turning the door knob for a slider, pulling the shade for a curve. But arm angle is also important. I haven't seen enough of Cingrani to know if his arm angle has been modified over the last year or so but if he's getting different action on his breaking ball, it may be that he has. Watching his two starts with the Reds on TV, I thought his arm angle was a bit lower in the first start than the second with the fastball and the breaking ball angle somewhat higher than the fastball in both (in other words, fastball and breaking ball angle more similar, less distinguishable to the hitters in the second start, which I thought distinctly better all around). But these are observations based on a very small sample size, to be sure.
    2. If Cueto can come back, I think we need to be sure Cingrani continues to get innings--therefore back to Louisville. The only problem with this is that he has been so dominant there that there may not be that much for him to learn there.
    3. On the question of his fastball and what it bodes for him. I say it's good. He's throwing very hard for a left handed starter.

  16. #268
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Three points. 1. There's no absolute fixed difference between a curve and a slider, but to the pitcher, it will be about hand action. Classic distinction is turning the door knob for a slider, pulling the shade for a curve. But arm angle is also important. I haven't seen enough of Cingrani to know if his arm angle has been modified over the last year or so but if he's getting different action on his breaking ball, it may be that he has. Watching his two starts with the Reds on TV, I thought his arm angle was a bit lower in the first start than the second with the fastball and the breaking ball angle somewhat higher than the fastball in both (in other words, fastball and breaking ball angle more similar, less distinguishable to the hitters in the second start, which I thought distinctly better all around). But these are observations based on a very small sample size, to be sure.
    2. If Cueto can come back, I think we need to be sure Cingrani continues to get innings--therefore back to Louisville. The only problem with this is that he has been so dominant there that there may not be that much for him to learn there.
    3. On the question of his fastball and what it bodes for him. I say it's good. He's throwing very hard for a left handed starter.
    Don't get me wrong, I love his fastball, I just think he needs more of a mix to get through better line-ups multiple times or to be successful later in the year after the league is getting its second look at him. I'd hate to see the Reds cast a starter aside or get one out of the starting innings routine only to see Cingrani start to struggle in a couple months while the team is left short handed. There is plenty for him to work on in AAA even if the competition may make it difficult to judgw whether or not its working. He's a nice guy to have in reserve right now, but when the other five are healthy, he's in line behind them.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #269
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So, after two starts and going back to chart the Pitch F/X data here is what I have come to: Cingrani is throwing a strange pitch.

    BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. Pitch F/X is calling it a slider. Why the difference? Well, it is pretty simple. The horizontal movement is like that of a slider for the most part. It doesn't have much horizontal break, mostly in that -1 inch to 2 inch range, which is where most sliders are. So the MLB Advanced Media algorithm is calling it a slider for that reason. However on the vertical movement, it is coming in at -5 to -10 inches of break, which is where you expect to see curveballs at, which is why BrooksBaseball is calling the pitch a curveball. A slider actually tends to have slight "rise" to it when charted, so -5 to -10 inches is a big difference. Here is the chart from brooksbaseball for Cingrani in 2013. It lists both a slider and a curveball. You can see that the two are grouped close together, but there are two different "groupings" with the pitches.



    Seems like he may be getting some slurvy action on the pitch from what the data is showing so far.
    You could have just read my posts in this thread -- would have saved you a lot of time. I don't want to say "Told ya it was a slurve" or anything of the sort. (Whoops, looks like I just did.)


  18. #270
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Cingrani...

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    You could have just read my posts in this thread -- would have saved you a lot of time. I don't want to say "Told ya it was a slurve" or anything of the sort. (Whoops, looks like I just did.)

    Generally speaking, most slurves don't show up quite like this one does. In fact, after talking about it with some other Pitch F/X guys, it may be that Cingrani is getting a true 12-6 action on his breaking ball instead of a more 11-5 or 10-4 like a lot of curveballs or slurves do.


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