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Thread: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

  1. #46
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    You wouldn't want Stanton in any trade?
    Not at nearly the price he would command and not when we would struggle to pay his salary. The exact thing the Reds need is more affordable contributers for the time period they have their payroll locked into Votto/Phillips/etc. Cigriani and Hamilton are as likely as anybody to be those pieces.

    On top of that, a lock-down closer has infinitely more value to a world series contender than he does to the worst team in the league. That part of it doesn't make very much sense, and I really think it's a one in a million shot that they would consider trading Chapman anyway.

    Trading the exact kind of guys we need to keep this thing rolling for 1 high priced player would only make sense if we got way, way better in the short term. I'm not at all convinced that would be the case. In fact, and I realize I'm probably on an island for this, I'd call Chapman vs Stanton a wash in 2013 alone.

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  3. #47
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Happy to discuss the topic.

    I wouldn't make the trade. On a baseball level, it's debatable. In terms of the Reds' organizational health and growth, it's a complete non-starter.

    Chapman and Hamilton will fill more seats than any two Reds I can remember. Together they will boost the profile of this team enormously. And will do so relatively cheaply for awhile.

    If Hamilton does even passably well at the plate, I predict ESPN and Fox will show more Reds games and announce "Billy Hamilton and the Reds" for next week's main game. I also predict that attendance will increase. Votto will become the team's third attraction (although the team's best player).

    Add to all that Cingrani who seems to have something special, although obviously he could flame out, and it's a mammoth package.

    Chapman and Hamilton together --playing with the current core-- can make the Reds the kind of high profile team that attracts revenue, attracts free agents, brings incredible excitement. May not work out, but Aroldis' arm and Billy's legs seem to be in pretty good shape for the next few years.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-05-2013 at 04:00 PM.

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    Benihana (04-05-2013)

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by BearcatShane View Post
    If I'm the Marlins I don't know if I would do this because they aren't anywhere close to contending and I think Chapman is eligible for free agency in two years. I do think that offer would get Miami's attention, though.
    SIAP...

    I believe Chapman is under the Reds control through 2016. I know he has an option for 2015, but if he turns down the option he goes to arbitration. He would then be eligible for arbitration again in 2016. He is not a free agent until 2017.

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    BlackPete Ibold (04-05-2013)

  7. #49
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    If the Marlins were trying to trade Stanton, or planned to do so for that matter, they probably would have done so. The Reds aren't going to do much different because of this injury than they've already done, and even if they were, it doesn't make the Marlins anymore willing to trade Stanton.

    This idea, which has been discussed hundreds of times in the past year, is no more likely today than it was 3 months ago.

    In my opinion, the thread title "the idea that won't die" is misleading. The idea was never alive to begin with. The Marlins have shown no inclination to trading Stanton. But new threads are started on it seemingly every other week.
    I agree the Marlins may view Stanton the same way they did a week ago. Maybe not, though, since Loria is delusional and may have thought that his team was ripe to sweep the Nats.

    However, the Reds' plans should change considerably after Ludwick's injury. The Reds should in no way massively overpay for Stanton, but Stanton's value should be skyhigh because he is a truly elite player who will be cheap for the next two years and still under control for a third year. Hamilton, Cingrani and Chapman is likely a fair price for Stanton.

    For the record, most trade rumors never have life. I like to discuss these rumors on message boards because most of the time, trades do come from nowhere. This one is so often discussed because it is so fascinating. The Reds most debated player (Chapman) and it's two most debated prospects (Hamilton and Cingrani) for one of the most accomplished 23 year olds in MLB history.

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    Benihana (04-05-2013)

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    If the Marlins were trying to trade Stanton, or planned to do so for that matter, they probably would have done so. The Reds aren't going to do much different because of this injury than they've already done, and even if they were, it doesn't make the Marlins anymore willing to trade Stanton.

    This idea, which has been discussed hundreds of times in the past year, is no more likely today than it was 3 months ago.

    In my opinion, the thread title "the idea that won't die" is misleading. The idea was never alive to begin with. The Marlins have shown no inclination to trading Stanton. But new threads are started on it seemingly every other week.
    Ok sure. Do you want to place a wager that the Marlins trade Giancarlo Stanton at some point in the next 2.5 years? Not saying it will happen tomorrow, or even this season (as I suggested already on this thread). But he will not finish his career in Teal, and his departure may happen a lot sooner than people like you think.

    Prior to 2012, no one thought the D'backs would trade Justin Upton for a long time. Very few people ever believed the Padres would consider moving Mat Latos.
    No one ever thought the Marlins would trade Josh Beckett. Or Miguel Cabrera. Or Dontrelle Willis. Or Hanley Ramirez. Or Jose Reyes. Or Josh Johnson (since he was the one guy they actually paid to keep). See a pattern here?

    I think it's pretty stupid when posters on this messageboard say "a team won't trade so and so" even when there are several published reports saying they will consider it. It's one thing if you're talking about a team like the Reds trading Joey Votto after they just made a 12 year commitment to him. It's another if you're talking about the one team in professional sports where no one is ever safe, and you're talking about a young player who has publicly expressed his desire to get out.

    If you want another (cross-sport) example of where this kind of logic breaks down, look at the Raiders/Bengals dynamic with the Carson Palmer trade. There was NO WAY the Bengals were going to trade Carson Palmer -Mike Brown, the most stubborn man in history, said it publicly many times. Yet the Raiders lost their incumbent to an injury, and were willing to pay up to change the Bengals minds. And just like that, Carson was gone.

    Hopefully the Reds don't/aren't willing to overpay the same way the Raiders were (which would consist of dealing all 3 of the named players), but things happen and people change their minds. Especially when you're talking about a franchise like the Marlins that has shown about as much loyalty to their players as (fill in the blank here).
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-05-2013 at 04:35 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  10. #51
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    Not at nearly the price he would command and not when we would struggle to pay his salary. The exact thing the Reds need is more affordable contributers for the time period they have their payroll locked into Votto/Phillips/etc. Cigriani and Hamilton are as likely as anybody to be those pieces.

    On top of that, a lock-down closer has infinitely more value to a world series contender than he does to the worst team in the league. That part of it doesn't make very much sense, and I really think it's a one in a million shot that they would consider trading Chapman anyway.

    Trading the exact kind of guys we need to keep this thing rolling for 1 high priced player would only make sense if we got way, way better in the short term. I'm not at all convinced that would be the case. In fact, and I realize I'm probably on an island for this, I'd call Chapman vs Stanton a wash in 2013 alone.
    Well Stanton would be affordable this year (his last pre-arbitration year) and likely the next two. Most players get 40% of their free market value in their first arbitration year, followed by 60% and 80%. The Reds want to hang a banner in 2013. The proposed trade helps the Reds chances to hang a banner in 2013 and 2014, while certainly not hurting matters in 2015 & 2016. Plus, the Reds could either extend him at full-market value or get a comp pick for him once he leaves.

    I think the last two years have told us that even the 2010 concept of affordability is outdated with the new revenue streams coming to teams. The Reds should not be handing money out willy nilly, but Stanton is a guy who will always earn his paycheck when is on the field. Cingrani and Hamilton are likely to eventually provide surplus value to the Reds, but so would Stanton in 2013. In fact, I would bet that Stanton provides more value in 2013 than all three players combined. That may be the case in 2014 as well.

    I would imagine that the Marlins could convert Chapman to a starter if they made this trade. Who knows how averse Chapman is to the idea. He tried it this spring, so who knows.

    We would definitely get way, way better if we made this trade. As for Chapman being the same value as Stanton, all I can say is Stanton 2012 WAR: 5.7, Chapman 3.3. This trade definitely makes the Reds way, way better in 2013 and THE favorite to win the World Series.

  11. #52
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Votto will become the team's third attraction .
    I'm cutting you out of my will.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    elfmanvt07 (04-05-2013)

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I'm cutting you out of my will.
    I said Joey would still be the Reds' best player. Put me back in.

    Please.

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I said Joey would still be the Reds' best player. Put me back in.

    Please.
    Negative.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    jhu1321 (04-05-2013)

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    What's with the Stanton obsession anyways?

    2012 stats.
    Stanton - .290 avg, .361 obp, .608 slg, .969 ops, 37 hr, 86 rbi, 143 so, 46 bb
    Ludwick - .275 avg, .346 obp, .531 slg, .877 ops, 26 hr, 80 rbi, 97 so, 42 bb

    13 more HRs but not much difference in RBIs. Stanton strikeouts a ton but walks slightly better, due to lack of protection in lineup. A .015 pt difference in obp.

    I get a BJ Upton vibe from Stanton. I'd rather give our farm guys a shot or take a Ludwick-esque risk than weaken our pitching crop. He's just too young to give away so much talent for a marginal upgrade from a guy we found on the scrap heap.

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    What's with the Stanton obsession anyways?

    .
    He's young and had a 969 OPS last year?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    What's with the Stanton obsession anyways?

    2012 stats.
    Stanton - .290 avg, .361 obp, .608 slg, .969 ops, 37 hr, 86 rbi, 143 so, 46 bb
    Ludwick - .275 avg, .346 obp, .531 slg, .877 ops, 26 hr, 80 rbi, 97 so, 42 bb

    13 more HRs but not much difference in RBIs. Stanton strikeouts a ton but walks slightly better, due to lack of protection in lineup. A .015 pt difference in obp.

    I get a BJ Upton vibe from Stanton. I'd rather give our farm guys a shot or take a Ludwick-esque risk than weaken our pitching crop. He's just too young to give away so much talent for a marginal upgrade from a guy we found on the scrap heap.


    Eye test alone makes this a bad comparison. [nod to harold reynolds]

  19. #58
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    What's with the Stanton obsession anyways?

    2012 stats.
    Stanton - .290 avg, .361 obp, .608 slg, .969 ops, 37 hr, 86 rbi, 143 so, 46 bb
    Ludwick - .275 avg, .346 obp, .531 slg, .877 ops, 26 hr, 80 rbi, 97 so, 42 bb

    13 more HRs but not much difference in RBIs. Stanton strikeouts a ton but walks slightly better, due to lack of protection in lineup. A .015 pt difference in obp.

    I get a BJ Upton vibe from Stanton. I'd rather give our farm guys a shot or take a Ludwick-esque risk than weaken our pitching crop. He's just too young to give away so much talent for a marginal upgrade from a guy we found on the scrap heap.
    1 player is old and the other is young and is already better and not even in his prime.

    he prob could hit like 55 hrs in gabp

  20. #59
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    I would love to see Stanton hitting 4th, then go into a slump and have threads opened saying he needs to be hitting 2nd because he has no protection, then Votto has no protection, then Dusty is messing with his head, then he needs to be traded because he is being jerked around, etc

    But all things considered, I'd love to see the guy end up on this team. I guess it's just at what price.

  21. #60
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    Re: The Trade Idea That Just Won't Die

    This is just an idea from armchair GM's. This trade probly has no chance of getting done. If Tim Kirkjian was promoting this i would get it...but its just fans. I would love to have Stanton, but its not gonna happen


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