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Thread: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

  1. #46
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Do we know for sure that both Broxton and Chapman are unavailable tonight?

    I know they want to keep Chapman from pitching too many consecutive days, but why Broxton? It's very common for set up guys and closers to pitch three, four, sometimes five days in a row.
    I have a memory that they don't like to use Brox too many days in a row. Not sure why and maybe I'm wrong, but I think that was the working premise last year.

    As for Chapman, my guess is that they will use him in a one-run game to close today. Or if it's a long extra innings game, my guess is they will use him.

    I think they will try to stay away from him under other circumstances.

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  3. #47
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Or it could just be that Dusty didn't do it because of the statistic but because he trusts Chapman the most to close it out.
    If Dusty thinks he needs an ace reliever to protect a 3 run lead against the bottom of the order, then I expect we'll see Chapman protect a 4 run lead against the middle of the order next time we're in that situation. Let's see what happens.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #48
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Or it doesn't and you don't. Same could be said with a 4-run lead, 5-run lead or a 6-run lead. The fact that a closer is used with a 3-run lead in the ninth has less to do with the chances of holding the lead than it has to do with the fact that it is a save situation.

    I don't have a HUGE problem with what Dusty did, but now we are going into the first game of the St. Louis series without our top 2 (and possibly 3) bullpen arms. That probably leaves LeCure or Hoover as the defacto closer - which means Para and Simon are in setup roles. They need Latos to come up big.

    With all that said, I don't for a minute believe Dusty wouldn't use Chapman or Broxton if the game is close - although I would rather he air on the side of caution this early in the season.
    As RMR did, you beg the question. The assumption is that Dusty brings in the closer because it is a statistical save. I think he brings them in because a 3 run lead is two guys on and a blast. He also likes to bring guys in to start an inning and avoid the "fireman" approach. I honestly don't think the decision is based on the stat, but the situation.

    There is also the assumption that the bottom of the order shouldn't require your top reliever. Yet, I personally witnessed a Marshall blown save that started out with 7-8-9 (which I believe was the last time he was the regular closer). There is just a lot of assumptions people make that sound great in large numbers, but on a day to day, trying to get a win basis that the manager lives in, he knows how quickly a 3 run lead turns into the tying or go ahead run standing in scoring position. I can't blame a guy for trying to keep fires from getting started rather than waiting until the fire is there as a way to manage the bullpen in the late innings. And as we saw last year, there were not too many times that this style bit Dusty in the rear with guys "unavailable."
    Last edited by traderumor; 04-08-2013 at 12:39 PM.
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  5. #49
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    What I don't understand is why Hoover was used in the 9th inning of a 15-0 game Friday night. That should have been either Parra or Simon, IMO. He could have used another day of rest.

    Chapman didn't throw very many pitches Saturday, he should be available today I would think.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  7. #50
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Do we know for sure that both Broxton and Chapman are unavailable tonight?
    .

    Excellent point. Marty and some of the other media guys LOVE to say "This pitcher is not avaiable tonight". I don't recall Dusty ever saying that (if he does, it's rare, and he usually hedges like "well, we hope to rest Chapman tonight").


    Like someone else said, Dusty and Price have earned my trust. They have done an excellent job of managing the bullpen over the years. Over the course of the season, someone like Logan/Arrondondo/Simon will occasionally have to pitch in a high leverage situation, but those occurances are pretty rare.

    On a side note, kind of funny there's all this teeth gnashing about Brox and Chapman maybe being unavailable Monday when there was a lot of folks calling the Brox signing a waste of money (not to mention "Chapman should be a starter") Just a bit of irony, and proof that you can never have enough quality pitching.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  8. #51
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    What I don't understand is why Hoover was used in the 9th inning of a 15-0 game Friday night. That should have been either Parra or Simon, IMO. He could have used another day of rest.
    .
    Maybe it was a show of confidence. Hoover had 4 appearances to that point (IIRC), and 2 of them weren't good.

    Dusty seems big on showing his key relievers that he believes in them.. Maybe he figures a low pressure situation would be good for Hoover.

    I do agree with your main point though.. if you aren't going to use Simon/Parra in that situation, when are you? I was just speculating on what Dusty might've been thinking.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  10. #52
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I was just speculating on what Dusty might've been thinking.
    That happens alot around here.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  11. #53
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I just don't see why when Broxton or Chapman has a 1-2-3 inning and a 3-run lead, why they can't be brought back out for the final inning. And if they get in trouble, THEN bring in the other guy.
    You pitch a gyu 2 inings and he's usually unavailable for at least 2 more games. Many pitchers could go 4-5 games in a row if they only pitch 1 inning.

    Let say you let Broxton pitch the 9th, and he gives up two runners to the first 3 batters. You bring in Chapman, and then you've burned Broxton for a while longer and didn't rest Chapamn.

    If the plan is to use Broxton/Chapamn at the first sign of trouble, you may as well go with them from the get go. If the thought was to allow Lecure to pitch the 8th/9th regardless, it may have made some sense since he had a 3 run lead. But you certainly don't want to get caught using them all.

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  13. #54
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I do agree with your main point though.. if you aren't going to use Simon/Parra in that situation, when are you?
    Parra had already pitched two not uneventful innings. I doubt Dusty wanted to having him pitch the 3rd inning so early in the season after throwing quite a few pitches already.

  14. #55
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Parra had already pitched two not uneventful innings. I doubt Dusty wanted to having him pitch the 3rd inning so early in the season after throwing quite a few pitches already.
    Sorry, I should've checked the box score before commenting.. I thought from the previous poster that Parra was not used (I did not see the entire game) If Parra was already used 2 innings, I can't see why there's any complaint.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #56
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Do we know for sure that both Broxton and Chapman are unavailable tonight?

    I know they want to keep Chapman from pitching too many consecutive days, but why Broxton? It's very common for set up guys and closers to pitch three, four, sometimes five days in a row.
    They mentioned it during the broadcast and then again during the postgame. That doesn't mean it is true. In fact I read 'not available' to mean will only be used if necessary.

  16. #57
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    In fact I read 'not available' to mean will only be used if necessary.
    I assume that Dusty only uses any reliever "if necessary".

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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    So Dusty should know what the weather report is for St. Louis tomorrow and plan accordingly.
    Or LaRussa may come back and tell you it's going to rain...
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  19. #59
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Am I the only one who saw the Nats come back from being down 3 yesterday in the blink of an eye?

    I hate the save stat and closer usage too but this is simple by the book managering. When it comes to that I don't like it but I don't find the use in complaing when 90 percent of other managers would probably do the same.

  20. #60
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Am I the only one who saw the Nats come back from being down 3 yesterday in the blink of an eye?

    I hate the save stat and closer usage too but this is simple by the book managering. When it comes to that I don't like it but I don't find the use in complaing when 90 percent of other managers would probably do the same.
    I was at the game Thursday. I was flipping out when he brought Simon in to pitch the 7th with only a two run lead. Simon escaped only giving up one run and Lecure and Chapman closed the door for the last two innings.

    So, if I as a fan am nervous without my best out there in a tight game, imagine the churning going on with the manager. Sure, get out your probability charts and generic reliever A and B probably hold the lead the last two innings. But all things considered, it seemed very natural to have Broxton and Chapman go in that game, with a series on the line and the caliber of the opponent.
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