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Thread: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

  1. #76
    Member ervinsm84's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    If the decision is done with the hope of winning more games, then whether it works should be considered. Saying the end result doesn't matter is basically a way of saying "my opinion is right regardless of the outcome."

    Dusty's job is to win as many games as he can. That's the point of making decisions he does. Some of them might not always be the popular choice, but the outcome does matter.
    There is a difference between outcomes in a large whole seaso mattering vs isolating 1 tiny example from a season.


    Completely different example, but same process is we don't really think hitting with 20 in blackjack is the right decision if we happen to hit an ace?
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

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  4. #77
    Member ervinsm84's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    The point was that you don't use simple probability to make that call when you are responsible for the decision. Fans typing on keyboards think that's all there is to it. And I can probably outsnide you if you want to play it that way.
    Nothing I said was snide. However based off your tone it's pretty clear you aren't wanting to actually discuss the spot and I don't see anything constructive coming of this so we'll agree to disagree
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

  5. #78
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Main point I see is this.

    Reds are a good team with a deep bullpen. If Dusty feels that he needs the big three on a given day, and wants to rest them all the next day, he still can win.

    Today was a tight, come from behind victory, despite the final score. Reds hung in with Lecure and Simon before they went ahead.

    So no tragedy that his big three were "unavailable." He had enough bullpen left. He has the flexibility to make the decision he made Sunday.

  6. #79
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It was speculated by the media that neither was available.

    In fact, Broxton was available, but unused.
    Yep, some time over the last few years, Marty and those guys decided to overfocus on who was rested in the bullpen and constantly speculate and ask Dusty about it.
    I've learned to take any statement about who is available and who isn't with a huge grain of salt.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #80
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post


    Completely different example, but same process is we don't really think hitting with 20 in blackjack is the right decision if we happen to hit an ace?
    Very poor analogy.

    Dusty's choice was to use Chapman on Sunday for a save (albeit a 3 run save) or not use Chapman "just in case" there was a higher leverage situation on Monday.
    Think about it.. in a normal year, a good closer gets about 40 saves.. That's roughly 1 in 4 games. I could make the argument that on any given game, it's more likely there's not a save situation for the Reds than there is.

    Also, Broxton was available. The media was ASSUMING he wasn't. Looks like Dusty preferred to rest Brox and Chapman, but was willing to use them if he had to.

    No offense, but this happens a lot on this board. Someone on the Reds is second guessed for a decision. It all works out fine, and people still cling to a flawed blackjack example to justify themselves. I can understand when you made your post, it was based on incorrect information (the false report that Brox was unavailable).. however, that doesn't change the fact that Dusty did make the right decision.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #81
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You are right that those guys go 1 inning. But I don't agree about the save thing. If there is a save chance, it is Chapmans.
    Dusty has a long history of having teams with saves loaded on 1 guy, Rod Beck (RIP) was one of them... look at any of his teams chances are 95% of the saves were on one guys slate.

    It's his way that's for sure

  9. #82
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    And its a very human thing to want to win an argument and that seems to be exacerbated on internet bulletin boards.

    Make your point and make sure its clear. Plant the seed and then walk away.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  10. #83
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    God forbid Dusty get the same amount of positive credit for the Paul pinch-hit decision today. Better yet, shouldn't he get a whole thread dedicated to it, patting him on the back?

  11. #84
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    No comment on bullpen tactics but this concern about bullpen management:

    Only six games into the season, going into your first series in St. Louis, biggest division rival, and you say you need your starter to go deep because the bullpen is depleted.

    Bad planning.
    Last edited by HUHUH; 04-09-2013 at 03:00 PM.
    Huh? Huh-uh. Oh yeah, uh-huh.

  12. #85
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by HUHUH View Post
    No comment on bullpen tactics but this concern about bullpen management:

    Only six games into the season, going into your first series in St. Louis, biggest division rival, and you say you need your starter to go deep because the bullpen is depleted.

    Bad planning.
    The starters have gone 6 innings plus each game. Dusty didn't plan on every game being close save one, and that 16 inning game.

    You'll note that the bullpen will get over taxed a number of times during the season. It happens.

    The Cards bullpen is also overtaxed right now. And it shows.

    And by going deep Dusty meant he needed 6 innings from him.

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  14. #86
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    God forbid Dusty get the same amount of positive credit for the Paul pinch-hit decision today. Better yet, shouldn't he get a whole thread dedicated to it, patting him on the back?
    kal, you have the ability to start threads, no?

  15. #87
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    kal, you have the ability to start threads, no?
    I like to keep that stuff in the game thread myself.

    But at the time I wrote that, and it had been awhile since the game ended, it was telling the amount of recognition that move got.

    It was by no means an automatic decision to make, despite the logic behind it. And using Brox and Chap on Sunday, while I would not have done so, was not a rip-worthy move.

  16. #88
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    kal, you have the ability to start threads, no?
    That's why the (unoffical) Dusty thread exists!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  17. #89
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    Hey, look on the brightside. These guys should be well rested now!!!

  18. #90
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    Re: Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

    The Reds have played 109 innings this season. Aroldis Chapman, one of the most talented pitchers to ever throw a baseball, has pitched 5.1 innings. One of those innings came in a 6-3 game in the 9th, while another 0.1 of those innings was in a 10-6 loss. Could the Reds be wasting his talent anymore than they are?
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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