Chapman and Broxton not available tomorrow?

[Chip R]

Am I the only one who saw the Nats come back from being down 3 yesterday in the blink of an eye?

I hate the save stat and closer usage too but this is simple by the book managering. When it comes to that I don't like it but I don't find the use in complaing when 90 percent of other managers would probably do the same.

You have a great point and I am not finding fault with what Dusty did. It worked. However I don't agree with traderumor that Dusty doesn't bring his closer in because it's a save situation. I think that's exactly why he brings him in. Just like he will give a pitcher who is getting hit hard in the 5th inning a little more rope so he can get a win. My theory behind this is that Dusty is a players manager. Players love to play for him. I believe one of the reasons why is that he will pad their stats by using them in those situations. It looks good at contract time and it's one less hassle for Dusty. He doesn't want agents calling him wanting to know why their client wasn't used in a save situation. But I don't believe he will do that to the point of hurting a guy. If they Reds used Chapman 3-4 games in a row and they have a save situation, I don't believe he'll use him for that game.

[Vottomatic]

You have a great point and I am not finding fault with what Dusty did. It worked. However I don't agree with traderumor that Dusty doesn't bring his closer in because it's a save situation. I think that's exactly why he brings him in. Just like he will give a pitcher who is getting hit hard in the 5th inning a little more rope so he can get a win. My theory behind this is that Dusty is a players manager. Players love to play for him. I believe one of the reasons why is that he will pad their stats by using them in those situations. It looks good at contract time and it's one less hassle for Dusty. He doesn't want agents calling him wanting to know why their client wasn't used in a save situation. But I don't believe he will do that to the point of hurting a guy. If they Reds used Chapman 3-4 games in a row and they have a save situation, I don't believe he'll use him for that game.

Exactly.

[Vottomatic]

You pitch a gyu 2 inings and he's usually unavailable for at least 2 more games. Many pitchers could go 4-5 games in a row if they only pitch 1 inning.

Let say you let Broxton pitch the 9th, and he gives up two runners to the first 3 batters. You bring in Chapman, and then you've burned Broxton for a while longer and didn't rest Chapamn.

If the plan is to use Broxton/Chapamn at the first sign of trouble, you may as well go with them from the get go. If the thought was to allow Lecure to pitch the 8th/9th regardless, it may have made some sense since he had a 3 run lead. But you certainly don't want to get caught using them all.

I disagree because it's been said that neither are available tonight.

If Broxton pitches the 8th and 9th, Chapman would be available tonight.

And it's not my fault if they are available tonight because this whole thread conversation is based on the fact someone with the Reds or media stated they weren't going to be available, which is the point of debate.

I agree with Chip R. Broxton could have gone 2 innings, but Dusty has to get Chapman his "Save" for his personal stats. Which is Dusty looking out for Chapman's "stats" and not for what's best for the team. Which would have been having Chapman or Broxton available tonight by pitching one of those guys 2 innings.

[ervinsm84]

I was at the game Thursday. I was flipping out when he brought Simon in to pitch the 7th with only a two run lead. Simon escaped only giving up one run and Lecure and Chapman closed the door for the last two innings.

So, if I as a fan am nervous without my best out there in a tight game, imagine the churning going on with the manager. Sure, get out your probability charts and generic reliever A and B probably hold the lead the last two innings. But all things considered, it seemed very natural to have Broxton and Chapman go in that game, with a series on the line and the caliber of the opponent.

So you agree there is minimal difference in WP but due to a fan being nervous you think that changes the equation? Also if anyone should not be nervous I hope it's the manager

[REDREAD]

I agree with Chip R. Broxton could have gone 2 innings, but Dusty has to get Chapman his "Save" for his personal stats. Which is Dusty looking out for Chapman's "stats" and not for what's best for the team. Which would have been having Chapman or Broxton available tonight by pitching one of those guys 2 innings.

I guess I disagree with the entire premise that Broxton could've gone 2 innings..
If going one inning tires Broxton out enough that he needs a rest on Monday, maybe he was too tired to go 2 innings on Sunday? Seems logically that he'd be more tired in the 9th on Sunday (after just pitching the 8th) than he would be on Monday.. People make a good point that maybe Dusty overextended Hoover when he had Hoover in for roughly 50 pitches.. Why risk overextending Brox? Why risk having to hurry up and warm up Chapman if Brox gets in trouble in the 9th?

People overstate that Dusty cares so much about giving the save to Chapman.
That's really not the case. Dusty's usage pattern has been pretty consistent.
Normally he uses Marshall, Brox, and Chapman for one inning. He prefers to go one inning, more often with these guys as opposed to 2 inning stints less often.

[dougdirt]

People overstate that Dusty cares so much about giving the save to Chapman.
That's really not the case. Dusty's usage pattern has been pretty consistent.
Normally he uses Marshall, Brox, and Chapman for one inning. He prefers to go one inning, more often with these guys as opposed to 2 inning stints less often.

You are right that those guys go 1 inning. But I don't agree about the save thing. If there is a save chance, it is Chapmans.

[ervinsm84]

Also, why does everyone keep pointing out it was to win the series? Had the Reds won Saturday does thatreally change our decision making?

[REDREAD]

You are right that those guys go 1 inning. But I don't agree about the save thing. If there is a save chance, it is Chapmans.

True.. if there's a save chance, it's Chapman's (if Chapman is available)

I guess my point is that Dusty doesn't manage the pitching staff solely to max out Chapman's saves. In other words, Chapman was brought in because Brox usually only goes one inning, not just to fatten up his save record. If Chapman was not available, Brox probably still only goes one inning. (That's the point)

[Kc61]

Worked out ok.

[ervinsm84]

Worked out ok.

Whether it did or didn't, again, does not change if the decision was correct or incorrect.

[Brutus]

Whether it did or didn't, again, does not change if the decision was correct or incorrect.

If the decision is done with the hope of winning more games, then whether it works should be considered. Saying the end result doesn't matter is basically a way of saying "my opinion is right regardless of the outcome."

Dusty's job is to win as many games as he can. That's the point of making decisions he does. Some of them might not always be the popular choice, but the outcome does matter.

[Todd Gack]

Whether it did or didn't, again, does not change if the decision was correct or incorrect.

After spending an entire offseason arguing over what happened in the NLDS,I can't believe we're actually arguing about this.

[PuffyPig]

I disagree because it's been said that neither are available tonight.

It was speculated by the media that neither was available.

In fact, Broxton was available, but unused.

[traderumor]

So you agree there is minimal difference in WP but due to a fan being nervous you think that changes the equation? Also if anyone should not be nervous I hope it's the manager

The point was that you don't use simple probability to make that call when you are responsible for the decision. Fans typing on keyboards think that's all there is to it. And I can probably outsnide you if you want to play it that way.

[cincrazy]

Dusty catches a lot of flak, some of it justified, but most of it not, IMO. I remember on more than one occasion him taking out Cordero in the middle of an inning, him getting his save be damned. Also, he made a genius move in pinch-hitting Cozart with Paul today. Yet I've seen one mention of it on here. Whereas if it was the opposite, and he made a move many thought led to our demise, there'd be a 15 page thread in progress right now on why Dusty isn't the man to lead this team forward.