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Thread: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

  1. #16
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by The DARK View Post
    I was thinking the Brewers might have an unexpectedly good season, but dang... he tore them a new one there.
    I think they may be better than he thinks. They will always have a chance as long as they have Braun in the lineup and I don't think their starting pitching is as bad as he thinks. I'm not talking about contending for the division good but with two wild card slots, there aren't many teams who don't have a chance at the post season.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I think they may be better than he thinks. They will always have a chance as long as they have Braun in the lineup and I don't think their starting pitching is as bad as he thinks. I'm not talking about contending for the division good but with two wild card slots, there aren't many teams who don't have a chance at the post season.
    I agree. They've got a lot of injuries at the moment, but they should get most of their players back soon and they'll be 50% better as soon as they kick Axford out of the bullpen.
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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree. They've got a lot of injuries at the moment, but they should get most of their players back soon and they'll be 50% better as soon as they kick Axford out of the bullpen.
    Milwaukee and closers go together like the Cubs and winning. They seem to get a guy who has a modicum of success and then he turns into garbage.
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    "In a hypothetical world in which both players got 500 plate appearances this year, projecting both to be about two-win players wouldn't be all that far-fetched".

    Based on what? Certainly not past history. The typical comment by a national media type who judges players on paper instead of insight gained having watched them over the years. And oh yeah, lets turn Chappie into Goose Gossage. What do we need Broxton and Marshall for?

    Hope I'm wrong, but I bet by June, Paul will be getting most of the time against right handed pitching and Chris will be hitting about .240 with a long list of bone headed base running miscues.

  6. #20
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    "In a hypothetical world in which both players got 500 plate appearances this year, projecting both to be about two-win players wouldn't be all that far-fetched".

    Based on what? Certainly not past history.
    Keri's just saying that Heisey's D makes up for his O, and that should be factored in when comparing him to Ludwick. I though it was supposed to be a compliment to both players (for their respective skills) and to the franchise (for acquiring a deep talent base). What past history do you have that contradicts this?

    The typical comment by a national media type who judges players on paper instead of insight gained having watched them over the years.
    Keri's claim isn't really that controversial. He uses Win Shares to argue that Heisey is not actually that bad of a replacement for Ludwick, all things considered. What's wrong with that? Shouldn't we be happy about it?

    And oh yeah, lets turn Chappie into Goose Gossage. What do we need Broxton and Marshall for?
    Maybe you aren't a Goose fan, but I think Keri's point is that Gossage was used in a way that should be the model for a true bullpen fireman -- a pitcher who comes in to the game based on situation specifics rather than inning. The idea would be that you want your best RP going in the highest leverage situation, which may or may not align with traditional "closer" or "setup man" innings slots. Keri does admit that this strategy unlikely to happen -- but it is an interesting idea.

    Hope I'm wrong, but I bet by June, Paul will be getting most of the time against right handed pitching and Chris will be hitting about .240 with a long list of bone headed base running miscues.
    Again, you are missing the point Keri is making about Heisey, which is that he has an overlooked balance of O and D skills. The point really is that he can hit .240 (if you like batting average as a good measure of skill) and still be a valuable contributor to the team.

    You might be right about Paul, though -- who I tend to like. Anyone know anything about his D?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Also worth noting that based on WAR (2.4) and SRS (5.5) the Reds are the best team in baseball right now.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Regarding Chapman as as ace reliever instead of "closer", it's a pretty simple concept. You use your relievers such that your best relievers pitch in the highest leverage situations. Using a guy as a "closer" was simply a lazier way to do that, taken to an extreme by basing those opportunities almost solely on the save statistic.

    Tie game, top of the 7th, bases loaded, 1 out. Why NOT have Chapman as the first guy out of the pen in that game instead of hoping lesser relievers can keep the other team off the board?

    What I don't understand is why pitching more than 1 inning is somehow harder on a pitcher than using him multiple days consecutively. It would seem to me that once a guy is warm, having him throwing 40 or 50 pitches and then giving him 2 days of rest would be easier on him than having him throw 15 pitches, 3 days in a row.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Keri's just saying that Heisey's D makes up for his O, and that should be factored in when comparing him to Ludwick. I though it was supposed to be a compliment to both players (for their respective skills) and to the franchise (for acquiring a deep talent base). What past history do you have that contradicts this?



    Keri's claim isn't really that controversial. He uses Win Shares to argue that Heisey is not actually that bad of a replacement for Ludwick, all things considered. What's wrong with that? Shouldn't we be happy about it?



    Maybe you aren't a Goose fan, but I think Keri's point is that Gossage was used in a way that should be the model for a true bullpen fireman -- a pitcher who comes in to the game based on situation specifics rather than inning. The idea would be that you want your best RP going in the highest leverage situation, which may or may not align with traditional "closer" or "setup man" innings slots. Keri does admit that this strategy unlikely to happen -- but it is an interesting idea.



    Again, you are missing the point Keri is making about Heisey, which is that he has an overlooked balance of O and D skills. The point really is that he can hit .240 (if you like batting average as a good measure of skill) and still be a valuable contributor to the team.

    You might be right about Paul, though -- who I tend to like. Anyone know anything about his D?

    1. Only one who did not watch the Reds last year would not appereciate Ludwick's defense. While he clearly does not have the athletic ability Heisy has, he makes up for it in intelligence and instinct. I have never seen a outfielder who positions himself better than Ludwick.
    In terms of offensive ability, professionalism, and (from what I've heard) club house pressence- no contest.

    2. "What's wrong with that? Shouldn't we be happy about it?"
    Its an absurd comparison. Ludwick carried this team on his back when Votto got hurt. Heisey is a fill in reserve.

    "he has an overlooked balance of O and D skills."

    WE've seen Heisy for several years now. He's a jouneyman ballplayer who often suffers brainlock- witness his slide into homeplate. These things happen a lot with him.

    3. "Maybe you aren't a Goose fan"

    Yankee partial season ticket holder in late seventies- I know Gossage very well. Chapman doesn't have the arm durability Gossage had. After Lyle left, those Yankees did not have the bullpen depth this team has which necessitated overworking Goose.

    Plus why mess around with Chapman when you've got two terriffic setup men in broxton and Marshall?
    Makes no sense. Its a long season. Chapman clearly thrives on the role is has been given. If its not broke , don't fix it.

  11. #24
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Mutaman;2826371]1. Only one who did not watch the Reds last year would not appereciate Ludwick's defense. While he clearly does not have the athletic ability Heisy has, he makes up for it in intelligence and instinct. I have never seen a outfielder who positions himself better than Ludwick.
    In terms of offensive ability, professionalism, and (from what I've heard) club house pressence- no contest.
    No one said Ludwick was a complete hack out there. Keri just suggested that Heisey was better -- which makes sense since he can cover all three OF positions if necessary. I don't think we have any way to quantify "professionalism" or "clubhouse presence" in such a way that invalidates his argument either.

    Again, Keri's not arguing that Heisey is BETTER than Ludwick -- only that he's a pretty darn good replacement, all things considered.

    Its an absurd comparison. We've seen Heisy for several years now. He's a jouneyman ballplayer who often suffers brainlock- witness his slide into homeplate. These things happen a lot with him.
    Well, if you look at the evidence, it actually isn't that absurd. If anything Ludwick is the true "journeyman" in the equation -- older and more well-traveled with two really good seasons and a bunch of mediocre ones, signed in Spring Training at the last minute. Heisey has only ever played for one team. I'm not inclined to take your word for it over the evidence that is available.

    Yankee partial season ticket holder in late seventies- I know Gossage very well. Chapman doesn't have the arm durability Gossage had. After Lyle left, those Yankees did not have the bullpen depth this team has which necessitated overworking Goose.
    I have no idea what you are basing this on except conjecture. More importantly, no one is saying that Chapman should pitch more innings -- only that he would be used in more strategically appropriate ones. Gossage is just a nifty historical comparison, but Keri admits this will probably never happen, so we might as well end the discussion. I just thought it was an interesting idea.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-09-2013 at 06:33 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree. They've got a lot of injuries at the moment, but they should get most of their players back soon and they'll be 50% better as soon as they kick Axford out of the bullpen.
    Dumping Axford will help a bit, but their bullpen still is in shambles and even if they find a decent closer, they've weaken the balance. There is a reason why Axford had the closer's job in the first place. Lack of viable alternatives.

    Ramirez may have a more serious injury, and braun may yet be suspended.

    The Brewers pose us no threat unless we come back to them.

    Our only real competition in the division is the Cards, and they'll say the same about us. We are the only two team in the division capable of winning 90+ games. If those other teams contend, it's becuase we and the Cards let them by winning less than 85 games.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    No one said Ludwick was a complete hack out there. Keri just suggested that Heisey was better -- which makes sense since he can cover all three OF positions if necessary. I don't think we have any way to quantify "professionalism" or "clubhouse presence" in such a way that invalidates his argument either.

    Again, Keri's not arguing that Heisey is BETTER than Ludwick -- only that he's a pretty darn good replacement, all things considered.



    Well, if you look at the evidence, it actually isn't that absurd. If anything Ludwick is the true "journeyman" in the equation -- older and more well-traveled with two really good seasons and a bunch of mediocre ones, signed in Spring Training at the last minute. Heisey has only ever played for one team. I'm not inclined to take your word for it over the evidence that is available.



    I have no idea what you are basing this on except conjecture. More importantly, no one is saying that Chapman should pitch more innings -- only that he would be used in more strategically appropriate ones. Gossage is just a nifty historical comparison, but Keri admits this will probably never happen, so we might as well end the discussion. I just thought it was an interesting idea.
    1. And what "evidence" is Kerri offering that heisey is "a
    a pretty darn good replacement". You're using words like "evidence" and "conjecture" when they don't really apply.

    2. "no one is saying that Chapman should pitch more innings"

    That's exactly what he's saying.

    "But giving Chapman a true fireman's role, where he could come in with the bases loaded in a tie game in the seventh inning, douse a rally, then pitch multiple innings at a time in the vein of peak Goose Gossage, could greatly enhance his value. "

  14. #27
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    1. And what "evidence" is Kerri offering that heisey is "a pretty darn good replacement".
    Here's what he's referring to:

    2012 WAR
    Heisey = 1.4
    Ludwick = 2.6

    Ludwick was better, but not by so much as you might think when you factor in his whole game instead of just looking at his counting stats. Keri's point is that if Ludwick regresses to his career norms (a reasonable possibility), then he won't be that much better than Heisey in terms of overall value contributed to the team. I think it is a reasonable argument. Notice that Keri is not saying that Heisey is straight-up better than Ludwick, he's just saying that the Opening Day injury is not quite the disaster we might make it out to be. Any in case, hardly the absurd claim you are making it out to be.

    2. "no one is saying that Chapman should pitch more innings"

    That's exactly what he's saying.

    "But giving Chapman a true fireman's role, where he could come in with the bases loaded in a tie game in the seventh inning, douse a rally, then pitch multiple innings at a time in the vein of peak Goose Gossage, could greatly enhance his value. "
    I think Keri's argument has more to do with usage than with total innings. The idea would be to use Chapman in a more specialized, situational role to put out fires. It would obviously be up to Price and Dusty to make sure that this is done in a healthy way -- but I don't think it is unreasonable for a possible starter to log a few more innings during the season.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think Keri's argument has more to do with usage than with total innings. The idea would be to use Chapman in a more specialized, situational role to put out fires.
    Obviously thats not what kerri was referring to because thats not the way Gossage was used. When Gossage came in during the 7th, he stayed to finish. He was not a "specialist", he was a closer who often pitched multiple innings.

  16. #29
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    Obviously thats not what kerri was referring to because thats not the way Gossage was used. When Gossage came in during the 7th, he stayed to finish. He was not a "specialist", he was a closer who often pitched multiple innings.
    I think we're talking past each other here. You are right about Gossage and how he was used, of course, but Keri doesn't say anything about how he envisions Chapman's role in terms of overall usage -- and since he doesn't really elaborate on that, it's impossible to know whether it would be a healthy or an unhealthy situation.

    Stepping away from Keri for the moment, in any case, I concur with RMR that there are conceivable situations in which a dominant RP could be used to "put out fires" in a way that doesn't involve a consistent "closer" role where he is coming in with the bases empty in the 9th every other game. It's about using your best arms in high leverage situations.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    "In a hypothetical world in which both players got 500 plate appearances this year, projecting both to be about two-win players wouldn't be all that far-fetched."


    Oh if we only lived in a hypothetical world.


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