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Thread: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Are we just pretending that the 2 seasons prior to Ludwick's arrival didn't even happen?

    I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that a scenario exists where Heisey could approach the overall value of Ludwick over a full season.

    In fact, he's already done it twice before (both 2010 and 2011). You would almost be having to try to be difficult to twist the author's words to suggest the statement was incredulous.
    Heisey has never played a full season. And when he has started for any decent stretch, he's failed. That's the crux of my argument.

    I agree that Ludwick was no guarantee to repeat his 2012 numbers. But I am as certain as I can be about such things, that Heisey, playing everyday for a full season, could never approach the production that Ludwick provided in 2012.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    You're going out with a whimper not a bang. You wanted to talk evidence- Walt's opinion is evidence because he's a qualified expert. Your opinion is not evidence because you are not an expert.

    Keri said Heisey was a competent replacement for Ludwick. I argued that was ridiculous. You conceeded that Heisey could not replace Ludwick's offensive skills but he made up for it in other areas. (I'm parapharasing due to time constarints). I stated that as far as other areas were concerned, Ludwick was a team leader. You said to prove it and I did by offerring Walt's expert statement. So get with, come back with some "evidence" not opinions (your words not mine) or Sayonara.
    Walt saying Ludwick is "a leader" does not prove that Heisey is not a competent replacement for him. If you can't see that logic, than I suppose we are done here. I'm not interested in trading links to press conference clippings and feelgood anecdotes about "leadership."
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-22-2013 at 09:47 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Heisey has never played a full season. And when he has started for any decent stretch, he's failed. That's the crux of my argument.

    I agree that Ludwick was no guarantee to repeat his 2012 numbers. But I am as certain as I can be about such things, that Heisey, playing everyday for a full season, could never approach the production that Ludwick provided in 2012.
    In those 2 seasons he eclipsed Ludwick's value in a partial season.

    Even if he played at or near replacement level for the duration of the season he would have eclipsed his value.

    Now, that says more about the seasons that Ludwick had pre-arrival, and Ludwick is clearly a better fit in Cincy than Pitts or San Diego.

    But at the same time, Ludwick isn't Votto. And sometimes he goes through long stretches where he hits like Heisey, but doesn't field like him.

    The argument that Heisey isn't a bad replacement is two fold. One Ludwick's value could easily be argued based on long sample sizes to be a 2 win player, not exactly an insurmountable feat, even for a guy with holes in his swing like Heisey. And two, Heisey is a pretty good 4th OF'der. Like any 4th guy, he has his flaws, and those flaws will be exposed over time. But overall, he does enough good that he will obtain value in some ways, even if it isn't likely to match a Cincinnati Ludwick, but the difference between 2-3 wins and 1-2 wins, is not a material gap to suggest that the Reds are crippled by the Ludwick injury. He's not a core part. At his best, he's a very good secondary piece, and at his worst, we wont even forget he's not healthy.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I'm not interested in trading links to press conference clippings and feelgood anecdotes about "leadership."
    It was a public statement by Walt Jockety. I haven't cited any anecdotes, feel good or otherwise.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    In those 2 seasons he eclipsed Ludwick's value in a partial season.

    Even if he played at or near replacement level for the duration of the season he would have eclipsed his value.

    Now, that says more about the seasons that Ludwick had pre-arrival, and Ludwick is clearly a better fit in Cincy than Pitts or San Diego.

    But at the same time, Ludwick isn't Votto. And sometimes he goes through long stretches where he hits like Heisey, but doesn't field like him.

    The argument that Heisey isn't a bad replacement is two fold. One Ludwick's value could easily be argued based on long sample sizes to be a 2 win player, not exactly an insurmountable feat, even for a guy with holes in his swing like Heisey. And two, Heisey is a pretty good 4th OF'der. Like any 4th guy, he has his flaws, and those flaws will be exposed over time. But overall, he does enough good that he will obtain value in some ways, even if it isn't likely to match a Cincinnati Ludwick, but the difference between 2-3 wins and 1-2 wins, is not a material gap to suggest that the Reds are crippled by the Ludwick injury. He's not a core part. At his best, he's a very good secondary piece, and at his worst, we wont even forget he's not healthy.
    So why did we pay him $15 million dollars?

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    So why did we pay him $15 million dollars?
    Sometimes more money doesn't equal more actual value.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    So why did we pay him $15 million dollars?
    1. 7.5M on free agent market only gets you a couple wins at most. $15M is not a lot of money over two years.

    2. Going into season with purely Heisey leaves Reds exposed to depth. Rather than going into season with a borderline starter, and terrible reserves, Reds chose to go with an on paper, better bet to be an average starter, and a good reserve player. Improve overall quality and depth of a position the Reds had minimal alternatives at.

    3. Ludwick's game probably plays better at GABP than it does in most places. Not a huge risk he goes down to 2010/2011 levels even if 2012 not likely to be reached again. Heisey's game doesn't appear to play exceedinly well (or poorly in comparison to other places), he is what he is, a pretty good defensive player with holes in his offense.

    The signing of Ludwick made sense for a multitude of reasons, even if he is not necessarily a significantly material improvement over Heisey on a night in-night out basis.

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  10. #83
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    It was a public statement by Walt Jockety. I haven't cited any anecdotes, feel good or otherwise.
    A statement by Walt Jocketty in a specific context at a specific time. Hardly objective proof of anything enduring. I wonder what the previous teams who let Ludwick go would have to say about this? Apparently said "leadership" wasn't quite so important when it didn't have some nice hitting skill to go along with it.

    And remember -- the only claim I've made is that Keri comparing Ludwick and Heisey is NOT an absurd exercise, and it doesn't discredit Keri as some sort of national hack writer who doesn't watch the Reds enough. That's basically what you wrote -- and that set me off. So I'm sorry, but one statement by Walt Jocketty about Ryan Ludwick's leadership in a press conference does not tip the scale in your favor.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-22-2013 at 10:07 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    It was a public statement by Walt Jockety. I haven't cited any anecdotes, feel good or otherwise.
    I hate hearing this argument.

    What is Jocketty going to say? He's of course going to say positive things about Ludiwck. It's a press release. Find an article where a GM disparages the guy they just signed on a free agent market.

    Jocketty makes mistakes sometimes, although, have been few and far between with the Reds.

    Look, Ludwick is probably a great character guy. But Heisey isn't Hitler. Ludiwkc has some definitive areas where he is a clear improvement over Heisey. We don't need to make up immaterial, and likely fictional reasons that are misclassified as "definitive proof" to prove a point. I doubt Choo and Bruce are running around with their heads cut off due to not having Ludwick manning LF.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    7.5M on free agent market only gets you a couple wins at most. $15M is not a lot of money over two years.
    Its a significant amount of money for a small market team with a limited payroll like the Reds. Obviously management doesn't agree with your opinion.
    Last edited by Mutaman; 04-22-2013 at 10:12 PM.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    In those 2 seasons he eclipsed Ludwick's value in a partial season.

    Even if he played at or near replacement level for the duration of the season he would have eclipsed his value.

    Now, that says more about the seasons that Ludwick had pre-arrival, and Ludwick is clearly a better fit in Cincy than Pitts or San Diego.

    But at the same time, Ludwick isn't Votto. And sometimes he goes through long stretches where he hits like Heisey, but doesn't field like him.

    The argument that Heisey isn't a bad replacement is two fold. One Ludwick's value could easily be argued based on long sample sizes to be a 2 win player, not exactly an insurmountable feat, even for a guy with holes in his swing like Heisey. And two, Heisey is a pretty good 4th OF'der. Like any 4th guy, he has his flaws, and those flaws will be exposed over time. But overall, he does enough good that he will obtain value in some ways, even if it isn't likely to match a Cincinnati Ludwick, but the difference between 2-3 wins and 1-2 wins, is not a material gap to suggest that the Reds are crippled by the Ludwick injury. He's not a core part. At his best, he's a very good secondary piece, and at his worst, we wont even forget he's not healthy.
    Again, my argument is that going forward, Heisey simply can not handle a starting job in MLB. He was able to put up decent numbers early in his career because the league didn't know him yet, and he was used mostly in situations that favored his strengths and minimized his weaknesses. Play him everyday now that the league knows him, and when he has to face everyone in every situation over a full season, and his production will crater, imo.

    Baseball history is littered with guys like Heisey. They are halfway decent for their first 1000-2000 AB's, and then, once the league adjusts to them, and they are unable to adjust back, they fade into oblivion.

    Just in recent Reds history, we have seen this in Drew Stubbs, Willie Taveras, Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel (RIP) and Chris Stynes. With research, I'm sure I could find dozens from other teams this past decade who did the same.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  14. #87
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    Its a significant amount of money for a small market team with a limited payroll like the Reds. Obviously management doesn't agree with your opinion.
    The Reds aren't the Marlins.

    The Reds have been spending decent coin last few years. They decided to pay free agent dollars for Ludwick because he filled a hole the Reds didn't have a dynamic solution for, or significant depth at.

    In this day and age, a 7.5M free agent player is not a marquee player to a team. Knowing that a win is worth roughly 4-5M in free agency now adays, I could look at it the other way and suggest that EVERY single GM in baseball thinks that Ludwick is a 2ish win player and disagrees with you and thinks that I, RedEye and Jonah Kerri has this one pegged correctly.

    I don't think that's a particularly compelling argument, but would be consistent with the parameters that you have defined for "evidence" to craft your position.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I hate hearing this argument.

    What is Jocketty going to say? He's of course going to say positive things about Ludiwck. It's a press release. Find an article where a GM disparages the guy they just signed on a free agent market.

    Jocketty makes mistakes sometimes, although, have been few and far between with the Reds.

    Look, Ludwick is probably a great character guy. But Heisey isn't Hitler. Ludiwkc has some definitive areas where he is a clear improvement over Heisey. We don't need to make up immaterial, and likely fictional reasons that are misclassified as "definitive proof" to prove a point. I doubt Choo and Bruce are running around with their heads cut off due to not having Ludwick manning LF.
    I was asked to offer evidence of Ludwick's leadership abilities. Walt didn't say he had a great character, he said he was a "leader" and that was one of the reasons why they signed him.

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    I was asked to offer evidence of Ludwick's leadership abilities. Walt didn't say he had a great character, he said he was a "leader" and that was one of the reasons why they signed him.
    This has now become a red herring for what our real debate was supposed to be about. For the sake of moving on, how would you respond if I grant that Ludwick may have "leadership qualities" -- but that those qualities are not relevant to the point Keri is discussing?

    For some reason, you steadfastly refuse to defend the real point I have an issue with -- which is that Keri has made some out-of-bounds, naive comparison that he has no right to make ("absurd" is the word you used). I think we've offered ample evidence at this point that, "leadership" notwithstanding, this is simply not the case.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    I don't think what Jocketty said means much. But I do think it's clear the Reds do not think there isn't much difference between having Heisey start and Ludwick start in LF. They had an opportunity to make Heisey the starter, and then go get a decent backup for him for a few million. Instead they chose to spend $19M to sign Ludwick. Maybe they were wrong, but their postion on this matter is clear.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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