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Thread: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

  1. #121
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We just disagree, respectfully. Heisey had 375 PAs last year, or thereabouts, and had an 88 OPS+. Such a player could easily have been traded for a minor leaguer last off-season, or worse. I wouldn't call the Reds lucky, just patient, hopefully not too patient.
    League constants for wOBA by year
    2010 .321
    2011 .316
    2012 .315

    Chris Heisey wOBA by year
    2010 .332
    2011 .341
    2012 .313

    That's not the profile of a player who "doesn't hit." Actually, over the past few years that he's gotten about 300 AB, Heisey has been above league-standard twice (2010, 2011) and basically league-average once (2012).

    Let's look at Ludwick.

    Ryan Ludwick
    2010 .329
    2011 .298
    2012 .373

    Outside of his 2012 "resurrection", Ludwick was arguably a less productive hitter than Heisey over the past three years. Bolstered by a crazy lineup in StL in 2008, he posted his career best of wOBA of .408, but other than that, his numbers are pretty pedestrian. Add in below average defense and the fact that he's six years older than Heisey, and you get the argument that Keri is making.

    Come to think of it, I think Keri's point is actually a relatively benign one given the numbers he could have cited. If he wanted to, he could actually have argued that Heisey should have been the starter all along. But he didn't. He made a qualified claim that it "wasn't too much of a stretch" to consider Heisey a competent replacement for Ludwick.

    As I've mentioned, this is hardly a "ridiculous" or "absurd" comment on Keri's part. It's actually just a measured observation by a careful writer who has an opinion to share.

    And let's not forget that Ludwick's 2012 hitting was largely driven by luck (which even FanGraphs grants is the residue of design and of taking low-cost gambles when they are available on the FA market, but which is less of an opportunity when it means plunking down $7.5 million a year).
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 10:55 AM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #122
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    League constants for wOBA by year
    2010 .321
    2011 .316
    2012 .315

    Chris Heisey wOBA by year
    2010 .332
    2011 .341
    2012 .313

    That's not the profile of a player who "doesn't hit." Actually, over the past few years that he's gotten about 300 AB, Heisey has been above league-standard twice (2010, 2011) and basically league-average once (2012).

    Let's look at Ludwick.

    Ryan Ludwick
    2010 .329
    2011 .298
    2012 .373

    Outside of his 2012 "resurrection", Ludwick was arguably a less productive hitter than Heisey over the past three years. Bolstered by a crazy lineup in StL in 2008, he posted his career best of wOBA of .408, but other than that, his numbers are pretty pedestrian. Add in below average defense and the fact that he's six years older than Heisey, and you get the argument that Keri is making.

    Come to think of it, I think Keri's point is actually a relatively benign one given the numbers he could have cited. If he wanted to, he could actually have argued that Heisey should have been the starter all along. But he didn't. He made a qualified claim that it "wasn't too much of a stretch" to consider Heisey a competent replacement for Ludwick.

    As I've mentioned, this is hardly a "ridiculous" or "absurd" comment on Keri's part. It's actually just a measured observation by a careful writer who has an opinion to share.

    And let's not forget that Ludwick's 2012 hitting was largely driven by luck (which even FanGraphs grants is the residue of design and of taking low-cost gambles when they are available on the FA market, but which is less of an opportunity when it means plunking down $7.5 million a year).
    Seriously, you have jumped the shark. Suggesting that one could argue that Heisey should be the starter over Ludwick is beyond absurd. I agreed with you that Keri kinda had a point, but that with a closer examination of the situation than just the last three years worth of WAR, he was wrong. But this claim isn't close to being defendable.

    Look at their careers, their whole careers.

    Ludwick has been a starting OF for a major league team for 5.5 seasons. He has accumulated 14.5 WAR during that time. That's around 2.6 WAR a season. He once had a 5.3 WAR season. (And dismissing that because of the Cards lineup that season is just silly.)

    Chris Heisey has never, ever, ever been a starting OF for a MLB team.... Ever. In his career of 2.5 seasons, he has accumulated 3.6 WAR. That's not much more than what Ludwick has averaged per season. On top of that, as a starter, he has a .711 OPS. As a bench player, he has a .836 OPS.

    There just is no evidence that remotely suggests that Chris Heisey deserves to start over Ryan Ludwick.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #123
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Actually, as you've already demonstrated, and as editorialists in the media and my composition students do every day, it is often easier to misrepresent a quote than it is to be objective about what the author is saying.
    Thank you for your service. Teachers are important. But your posts remind me of a saying in my profession: When the law is against you argue the facts, when the facts are against you argue the law. When both are against you, yell, scream, throw out a bunch of stuff and try to confuse everybody.

    When Ludwick was carrying this team on his back in the heat of last year's penant race, (right, he was "lucky") Baker was sending Heisey out to get him new supplys of toothpicks.
    Last edited by Mutaman; 04-23-2013 at 12:15 PM.

  5. #124
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I'm sure that when Ludwick went down, there was someone on the Reds staff who crunched some numbers and weighed in on the conversation about how able Heisey was as a replacement.
    That would have been Bill Bavasi.

  6. #125
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Seriously, you have jumped the shark. Suggesting that one could argue that Heisey should be the starter over Ludwick is beyond absurd.
    When did I suggest that? And furthermore, we should remember that prior to Ludwick's 2012, the Reds actually thought this was an open question. Hardly "beyond absurd" in any case.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 12:23 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #126
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    When did I suggest that?
    Come to think of it, I think Keri's point is actually a relatively benign one given the numbers he could have cited. If he wanted to, he could actually have argued that Heisey should have been the starter all along.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #127
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    Thank you for your service. Teachers are important. But your posts remind me of a saying in my profession: When the law is against you argue the facts, when the facts are against you argue the law. When both are against you, yell, scream, throw out a bunch of stuff and try to confuse everybody.
    And still the only facts you've cited in a thread of over 120 posts are a couple of months of HR, RBI, batting average and a quote from Walt Jocketty at a press conference where he needed to say something nice. Not a winning argument for most court cases, I would think.

    What have I thrown out that was confusing? I've tried to lay out my case as clearly as I can. Have you bothered to even look at the statistics I dug up? They aren't confusing if you bother to actually look at them.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 12:29 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #128
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Come to think of it, I think Keri's point is actually a relatively benign one given the numbers he could have cited. If he wanted to, he could actually have argued that Heisey should have been the starter all along.
    Please note that I am not arguing that. I'm suggesting that someone could have argued it. That's a different point entirely. My point was about the relative modesty of Keri's argument -- and was intended to argue against the point that Mutaman has been making for several pages now, that Keri's argument is "absurd." Which it quite clearly is not.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 12:37 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  10. #129
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    That would have been Bill Bavasi.
    Actually, probably Sam Grossman. Bavasi is more on the scouting side of things, I think.

    A small excerpt from Doc's recent Enquirer article about him:

    “It’s a balanced approach. Walt starts with the scouting reports, then he’ll bring in the statistical analysis to support the reports, or refute them. We find the common ground,’’ Grossman says. The common ground has been mother-loaded lately.
    Last edited by RedEye; 04-23-2013 at 12:48 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  11. #130
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Drew Stubbs WAR the last three years:

    3.6
    2.1
    1.0

    6.7 total, 2.2 average

    Shin-Soo Choo's WAR the last three years:

    5.9
    1.3
    2.4

    9.6 total, 3.2 average

    I don't think it would be far fetched to expect both Choo and Stubbs to project to roughly the same production if they both started in CF for a full season, given all their special talents
    lol.. I think a Cleveland writer actually made that argument over the winter.
    The truth is.. WAR is flawed, even when you are comparing two different LF, like Ludwick and Heisey.

    Let's look at what actually happened in 2012.
    I forget which WAR is the good one, so I will list both

    Ludwick.. baseball reference WAR 1.9 OPS 877 covering 422 AB Fangraphs WAR 2.6

    Hiesey baseball reference WAR -0.2 (below replacement level? lol, I don't think so) OPS 715 over 347 AB. FanGraphs WAR 1.2

    So, based on WAR, a jump in 162 points in OPS is only worth either 2.1 wins or 1.4 wins over the course of the season.. I kind of find that hard to believe. I know Heisey gets some bonus points for being able to play CF, but I'd argue that's another reason why WAR is a bad way to compare Heisey and Ludwick.

    I guess if Ludwick and Heisey both had 600 ABs last season, the WAR gap would've been a little greater. But they both got a decent amount of time.

    Although I guess according to WAR, if our LF only give us an OPS of 715, it's not going to hurt us in the standings this year.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #131
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    Redread, I may be misreading your post, but you seem to be trying to attribute the variations b/t Heisey and Ludwick to OPS alone. The whole point of WAR and stats of that ilk is that we stop trying to measure this sort of thing via offense alone. So I don't get your point.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #132
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    The whole premise of this debate is based on the thought that Ludwick would perform somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 season...which is logical. I Ludwick is better than Heisey myself but I totally understand where Keri is coming from.

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  15. #133
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Query: On the eve of Ludwick's return, did Heisey turn out to be a competent replacement?

  16. #134
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    Query: On the eve of Ludwick's return, did Heisey turn out to be a competent replacement?
    2012 Ryan Ludwick would be a huge upgrade. Lets hope that 2013 Ludwick is up for the task.

  17. #135
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Jonah Keri ranks the Reds #1

    I wish we could go back to the time when Todd Frazier was a "frontline player."
    Rounding third and heading for home...


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