I think you have to look at speed as the second most important element leading off - after OBP. Getting on at a high clip is most important. But look at Stubbs. Low OBP, high strikeouts but he was a run machine. His base running was excellent and his speed was top notch. When he did get on he scored a phenomenal % of the time. It didn't offset his low OBP but it did ameliorate it somewhat. Dusty gets ripped for his "clogging the bases" comment and probably should but there is a grain of truth in it too with slow station to station players like Hanigan. As RMR shows, even with much higher OBP rates they may barely achieve the scoring production of much, much lower OBP players with excellent speed. Remember, of course - this is the two extremes of the categories, speed and OBP wise. Also, Stubbs success scoring on a high pct basis came because of his overall running prowess - not just stealing - his speed was an asset beyond just stealing bases which is something that gets forgotten. First to third, scoring from first, or scoring from second on the shallow single are things the fleet footed runner can do. I don't think you have to be in Rickey Henderson's class - look at Pete - but I think you should be a smart aggressive baserunner with enough speed to take an extra base like Pete was in order to be a good leadoff man, and of course, have a solid OBP. If Stubbs taught us anything it should be that a low OBP leadoff man with a lot of speed can be somewhat effective (if inordinately frustrating to watch). I have high hopes Billy can better Stubbs OBP rate and he is even faster and a better base stealer. I don't think he has to be a .380 to .400 OBP guy to be really, really good. .325-.340 especially in his early seasons would be okay by me. Anything more would be gravy. Anything less would be Stubbesian - but might still be workable.
Hamilton is tweeting with Michael Crouse who is a Minor league player with the BlueJays
billy hamilton @b_ham_3 14m
billy hamilton @b_ham_3 14s“@_crouse_: @b_ham_3 sept call piece or what?”bro I'm hoping I haven't heard anything yet
“@_crouse_: @b_ham_3 need the cup of coffee”yes sir bro wat about u?
Can we bring this run scoring discussion back around to Billy's effect? After last night, it's easy to be excited about the possibilities. What is of interest to me now is how Billy will compare to Choo in terms of runs scored. If Billy is to Choo what Cozart is to Hanigan, how many more runs does Billy score than Choo? Or is he still short of Choo?
Excluding only HR, Billy scores 43% of the time he's on base and Choo scores 31% of the time he's on base. With a significant advantage in XBH and talent hitting behind him Choo still does not score as frequently as Billy.
Using Rick's conversion of 1% of likelihood of scoring = 10 points of OBP, does Billy need to OBP .297 next year to score the 93 runs in 133 games that Choo has? (.417 OBP-(12 points difference in scoring frequency*10) = .297 OBP) Is that the correct use of your numbers Rick?
2012 Billy scored 45% of the time
Minors career it is 42% of the time
Majors career is an astounding 100% of the time.
Choo has scored 29% of the time in his career in various places in the lineup.
All these numbers are minus home runs.
And Jose Reyes has scored 39% in his mlb career, while also score 47% of the time in the minors. Perhaps we should adjust downward for Billy to the 37-40% range for a reasonable outcome in the majors. Reyes was a stealer in the minors but only reached 58 sb in a full season one time, so I don't know if Billy should be adjusted too far down as he's even faster and better on the bases than Reyes.
How many cups of coffee have you had today?
Cozart is around 45% this year.
One problem wih with Billy is the lack of pop (which Cozart and Stubbs have). Although the stolen bases are going to help with that. It will certainly be interesting to track the percentage of time that Billy scores next year. Hopefully he does put up his first of many 100 runs scored seasons
Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Billy Hamilton is eligible for the Reds' playoff roster.
Advice: Hamilton wasn't added to the 40-man roster until September 2, but MLB rules allow Cincinnati to replace a player on the disabled list (in this case, Nick Masset) on the playoff roster with a player who wasn't on the 40-man roster at the end of August. Expect to see Hamilton in the postseason. The fastest player in the game makes for a terrifying bench weapon in October.
More: John Fay on Twitter
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So, whose place does Hamilton take on the playoff roster?