Billy Hamilton

[klw]

From Keith Law's chat yesterday:
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48502

Aidan (OH)

I understand Billy Hamilton not making the top 50, but how do you feel about his current MLB projection?
Klaw (1:04 PM)

There's too high of a chance of him not hitting enough for the speed to play up - so much of his value will come from his legs, and if he's not strong enough to post an OBP much above .310-320, he's just a bit player.

[757690]

From Keith Law's chat yesterday:
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48502

Funny, I remember an article, I think in Fangraphs, that said that with Hamilton's speed and defense, he'd be a near league averge CF (around a 2 WAR player) even if his OBP was around .280-.290.

OBP is a huge issue for Hamilton, because he would be able to bat leadoff, if he had a decent one. His value would drop if he had to bat 8th.

But a .320 OBP plus a .350 SLG, would be a .670 OPS. Not very good. But combined with elite speed on the basepaths, and a plus glove CF, that easily could be worth well above 2 WAR, making him much more than a bit player.

Lets put it this way. Zack Cozart, with his .262 OBP, is on pace to put up a 1.2 WAR with his speed and defense this season.

It looks like Law's not very good at math.

[RedTeamGo!]

I understand this is not a death sentence, as Billy can turn things around and prove everyone wrong (please God, let that happen), but I remember thinking to myself last year the offseason may be the best time to trade Hamilton, thinking it unlikely his stock would ever get higher.

[Benihana]

This is what I was afraid of. From Baseball Prospectus:

“The speed is absolutely fantastic. He’s fun to watch when he’s on the bases, but I just don’t see how it’s going to work. There’s nothing else that makes me believe he’s an everyday big leaguer. You can knock the bat out of his hands with good velocity and he doesn’t have the discerning eye to work counts and lay off spin. I just think the hit and on-base comes up short and he’s a virtual zero offensively. If he can figure everything out in center field then maybe has a future hitting eighth or ninth and playing good D, but that’s even stretching it for me.”

Always beware when speed is a prospect's best asset. Other than Carlos Gomez who was more of a post-hype guy, I can't remember when the last speed demon with questionable offensive skills panned out.

Meanwhile, the road is littered with busts: Fernando Martinez, Julio Borbon, Felix Pie, the list goes on and on...

Hopefully Hamilton becomes the exception rather than the rule. I haven't given up hope yet.

[IslandRed]

In retrospect, his good start in AA after last year's promotion probably didn't do him any favors, because it led the Reds to advance him to Louisville and set up the big-league roster with a stopgap CF. But Hamilton was a project from the beginning and he needs a lot of time in the forge. At age 22 in Triple-A and with the defensive position question settled, he's far from done developing and it's too early to write him off. But it sure looks like he won't be ready when the Reds hoped he'd be.

[davereds24]

Have the Reds in recent memory moved a top prospect back to AA after struggling in AAA?

[RedsManRick]

I wonder if its too late to hire Norris Hopper as Billy's personal bunting coach? Bat him 9th and just have him bunt 70% of the time.

[dougdirt]

I wonder if its too late to hire Norris Hopper as Billy's personal bunting coach? Bat him 9th and just have him bunt 70% of the time.

Bunting isn't a problem. He is hitting .500 on bunts this year, including sac bunts (while he is credited with a sac bunt, he isn't trying to give himself up, so I am counting them in there). He is also bunting nearly twice as much this year as last year.

[UC_Ken]

Elite speed in CF but can't get on base, have we had anyone like that lately?

[TOBTTReds]

Bunting isn't a problem. He is hitting .500 on bunts this year, including sac bunts (while he is credited with a sac bunt, he isn't trying to give himself up, so I am counting them in there). He is also bunting nearly twice as much this year as last year.

Which could be why his OBP is lower. Bunting doesn't allow you to get deeper in counts and allow the pitcher to walk you.

[RedEye]

"You can knock the bat out of his hands with good velocity"

Not good.

[holster10]

His K rate is on the rise. I see him again in AAA next year unless he suddenly finds his mojo at the dish.

[dougdirt]

His K rate is on the rise. I see him again in AAA next year unless he suddenly finds his mojo at the dish.

His K rate is identical to what it was last season in AA. It is up a tad from where it was in A+.

[dougdirt]

Yesterday I took an in depth look at the batted ball types for Hamilton between 2012 and 2013. The groundballs difference was rather interesting. Not so much for the difference in how many, but the results of them from 2012 to 2013.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/07/...illy-hamilton/

[RED VAN HOT]

Yesterday I took an in depth look at the batted ball types for Hamilton between 2012 and 2013. The groundballs difference was rather interesting. Not so much for the difference in how many, but the results of them from 2012 to 2013.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/07/...illy-hamilton/

Interesting stuff. In order to provide some context, do you have a major league average for ground balls fielded by infielders?