Billy Hamilton

[Old school 1983]

Doug, you're much more of an insider to the reds minors than I am, I was wondering if hamiltons low average and obp are a result if him being overmatched or a result of bad luck. I've heard reports of both.

[dougdirt]

Doug, you're much more of an insider to the reds minors than I am, I was wondering if hamiltons low average and obp are a result if him being overmatched or a result of bad luck. I've heard reports of both.

It certainly isn't bad luck to this point. His BABIP is low, especially for someone with his speed. But his BABIP is where it probably should be given how he has hit the ball IMO.

[Old school 1983]

It certainly isn't bad luck to this point. His BABIP is low, especially for someone with his speed. But his BABIP is where it probably should be given how he has hit the ball IMO.

Yeah. Thanks for the update! That would be a serious stretch of bad luck for it to be that low for that long of a period of time. Guess he just isn't making solid enough contact. I really hope he can pick it up and contribute to the team on some level this year. His speed wound but a huge boost.

[ProfessorTofty]

I had the pleasure of watching him when he was playing for the Dayton Dragons. Yeah, his speed was amazing. Here's hoping the hitting can pick up and he can join the Reds sometime this year.

[lollipopcurve]

But his BABIP is where it probably should be given how he has hit the ball IMO.

A point that needs to be made about BABIP far more often than it is.

[Steve4192]

It's too early to get overly-concerned about Billy. IMO. I'd give him another month and see if he adjusts.

Agreed.

Billy started out the year hot, and now he is ice cold. There is no reason to over-react to a few bad weeks anymore than there was reason to over-react to a few good weeks. Just look at the first couple of posts in this thread for a perfect example of why that is true.

Billy is not as good as he appeared after the first week, and he's not as bad as he appears now. He is in a funk right now. It happens. Now we get to see whether he can work his way out of the funk and continue his ascent to the majors, or if he is just another in a long line of hot prospects who fizzled out in the minors.

[Benihana]

If he is still under the Mendoza line by the time of the Draft, I'll start to get concerned. There has always been a question to whether he can get on base at the highest levels. If he can, he's a superstar prospect. If he can't he's Jacob Brumfield redux.

Hopefully he'll prove the former and this is just a temporary funk.

[j_m_t_us]

If he is still under the Mendoza line by the time of the Draft, I'll start to get concerned. There has always been a question to whether he can get on base at the highest levels. If he can, he's a superstar prospect. If he can't he's Jacob Brumfield redux.

Hopefully he'll prove the former and this is just a temporary funk.

He looks lost playing in AAA. They moved him up way to fast!

[Steve4192]

He looks lost playing in AAA. They moved him up way to fast!

I don't think it has anything to do with the level he is playing at. The difference between AA and AAA is pretty minimal. The only real difference is that AAA features a lot of older players who major league clubs keep around as insurance. Hamilton handled AA with aplomb last season, so moving him up to AAA was a reasonable decision.

Billy is just in a funk right now. He'd look bad regardless of what level he was playing at. To be honest, it's probably good for him. Every player needs to learn how to adjust and work his way out of a slump. Better he learns how to do that in Louisville rather than Cincinnati.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Fangraphs write up on Hamilton from 7 May

But how much does Hamilton really have to hit if he’s awesome on the bases and in the field? If you give Hamilton the 2012 fielding and baserunning numbers of Michael Bourn — 23.3, 6.1 — and the 2012 offensive numbers of Jordan Schafer — .211/.297/.294 — you get about a 1-win player. If you give him Mike Trout’s baserunning production — 12 BsR — and a few more runs on defense, you might scrape a 2-win player together. That’s fine, considering Schafer was below replacement-level last season, but it also assumes the elite production from the other parts of Hamilton’s game. And even then it only nets you an everyday regular who should probably hit sixth or seventh to utilize his speed.

A 2 win player just off glove and base running assuming the bat is the worst case, Jordan Schafer's bat. I can dig that.

[REDREAD]

I don't think it has anything to do with the level he is playing at. The difference between AA and AAA is pretty minimal. The only real difference is that AAA features a lot of older players who major league clubs keep around as insurance. Hamilton handled AA with aplomb last season, so moving him up to AAA was a reasonable decision.

Billy is just in a funk right now. He'd look bad regardless of what level he was playing at. To be honest, it's probably good for him. Every player needs to learn how to adjust and work his way out of a slump. Better he learns how to do that in Louisville rather than Cincinnati.

Yep, I agree 100%.
Billy actually had a brief period where he struggled in AA.. Maybe 2-3 weeks?
One of the coaches said it was a blessing, because Billy never really had to deal with adversity until that point.
Billy's hand eye coordination (among other things) is off the chart.
He'll figure things out.
One of the AA coaches (can't remember if it is from the Reds or another team) said he thought Billy could hit 300 in the majors eventually.

The point is, Billy will figure it out.
I'm not guaranteeing he will be the 400 OBP, 150 SB player we are all drooling for, but I think he's got a great chance of being an average ML CF or better. Again, not 100% chance, but a good chance.

No need to panic.

[dougdirt]

Yep, I agree 100%.
Billy actually had a brief period where he struggled in AA.. Maybe 2-3 weeks?
One of the coaches said it was a blessing, because Billy never really had to deal with adversity until that point.

If a coach actually said that, he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about. Hamilton hit .205 in his first season. He hit .215 in April/May while in Dayton. He has had his struggles and each time he rebounded just fine.

[Goose1701]

If a coach actually said that, he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about. Hamilton hit .205 in his first season. He hit .215 in April/May while in Dayton. He has had his struggles and each time he rebounded just fine.

Do you think he's just the slow starter type, or is it that he just takes a while to get used to each new level?

[dougdirt]

Do you think he's just the slow starter type, or is it that he just takes a while to get used to each new level?

He started just fine in 2010 and 2012. I broke down his start in about 800 words earlier today at my site. Gets into why I believe he is struggling. And probably why the organization thought so too.

[REDREAD]

If a coach actually said that, he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about. Hamilton hit .205 in his first season. He hit .215 in April/May while in Dayton. He has had his struggles and each time he rebounded just fine.

Well, you back up your point with facts.
Maybe my paraphrasing of what the coach said was not completely accurate,
but the point the coach was trying to make was that it was ok/expected for billy to struggle at AA, and he recovered.
The "first time struggling" was probably my own faulty memory. I didn't intend to emphasize that in the point I Was trying to make.