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Thread: Billy Hamilton

  1. #166
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    IMO, they have to call him up once rosters expand. He's shown enough improvement with the bat over the course of the AAA season that I don't think he'll embarrass himself in whatever opportunities he gets to hit. He can play good defense, if needed in CF. And he's a great weapon on the bases. He's a guy you want on a post season roster, and the month of September will allow him to get acclimated.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #167
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    IMO, they have to call him up once rosters expand. He's shown enough improvement with the bat over the course of the AAA season that I don't think he'll embarrass himself in whatever opportunities he gets to hit. He can play good defense, if needed in CF. And he's a great weapon on the bases. He's a guy you want on a post season roster, and the month of September will allow him to get acclimated.
    To use him in the post season though they have to call him up before September.

  4. #168
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    To use him in the post season though they have to call him up before September.
    Reds will call up Billy on 8-31. They would be nuts otherwise. If all he does is run bases, it is worth it. Adds a weapon.

    They can drop a reliever like Christiani for one day then bring up a few pitchers on 9-1 to fill out the pen.

    Broxton will go to sixty day DL, no problem with forty man roster.

    Could be an exciting September.

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  6. #169
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    To use him in the post season though they have to call him up before September.
    If I recall correctly they called chapman up aug 31 2010. I have been hoping they'd do the same with Hamilton this year to leave the option open to have him on the playoff roster.

  7. #170
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    FWIW, Hamilton has hit safely in 14 of his last 16 games. In that time, he's had a line of:

    .343/.375/.373/.748

    In that time, it's mostly been singles and he's still not walking a ton. That said, if he just keeps hitting the ball hard, the gap shots will come. And on the bright side, he's only struck out eight times in that timeframe (70 PAs).

    He's still got a long way to go, but he's showing signs of adjusting.
    Because I'm a dork I always add his stolen bases to his slugging % and subtract his CS from his OBP%. In the last 10 games his unadjusted split looks like this, .326/.390/.716. If you add his 4 SB and 2 CS during that time frame it changes to this; .279/.488/.767

    I'm not sure if this is instructive in one way or another.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  8. #171
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    I think Doug can help with that adjustment. It has to do with run values on SBs, which are less than a single (I think). Nevertheless, it has to improve the split somehow.

  9. #172
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds will call up Billy on 8-31. They would be nuts otherwise. If all he does is run bases, it is worth it. Adds a weapon.

    They can drop a reliever like Christiani for one day then bring up a few pitchers on 9-1 to fill out the pen.

    Broxton will go to sixty day DL, no problem with forty man roster.

    Could be an exciting September.
    IMO, they would have to do it to have him also steal bases, the one thing Robinson can't necessarily do as well as Hamilton.

  10. #173
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    I think Doug can help with that adjustment. It has to do with run values on SBs, which are less than a single (I think). Nevertheless, it has to improve the split somehow.
    That makes sense. Even with my crude adjustment, The additional 25% of slugging is worth more than the 14% loss of on base percentage, though that success rate is probably the lowest success rate where it is still beneficial.

    *Of course since it's only a 10 game sample, it's probably not worth fussing too much about.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  11. #174
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Agreed 100% I would get Hamilton up so he can be on the postseason roster. Izturis/Hannahan/Heisey/Robinson just aren't good enough to warrant keeping Billy's legs off the roster.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  13. #175
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    here's the deal with value of stolen bases .....

    sb - 2 (cs) by .66 = total bases and you add that to his total base total to give you a number.

    let's say he has 10 sb and 2 caught steaings ...

    10- 2(2 cs) x .66 = 4 total bases - you add those 4 bases to his total bases to see how sb impact slugging.

  14. #176
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Base stealing is not an important skill for the leadoff hitter.
    Generally regarded as the greatest leadoff hitter ever, Rickey Henderson thrilled baseball fans for a quarter century by stealing a major league-record 1,406 bases. Along the way, his feats on the base paths fueled the stereotype that speed is the leadoff manís defining tool. But it wasnít his base stealing that made him so effective in the leadoff spot; rather, it was his ability to get on base to begin with.
    ďThe BookĒ lays out the most efficient strategy for the top of the lineup: a teamís three best hitters should bat in the Nos. 1, 2 and 4 spots, with the No. 1 hitter emphasizing walks and on-base percentage and the No. 4 hitter emphasizing slugging percentage. If anything, base stealing should be one of the least relevant skills for the leadoff hitter because the hitters behind him are generally the best on the team ó meaning they do not need to rely on small-ball tactics to move runners into scoring position.
    Despite the overwhelming evidence, many teams still stubbornly insist on using speedy leadoff men who cannot get on base.
    I bet Hamilton will not become a great leadoff hitter, not even a good one.

  15. #177
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post

    I bet Hamilton will not become a great leadoff hitter, not even a good one.
    Looking at his recent stretch it seems like he's just getting hot, his skill set hasn't changed in terms of drawing more walks or slugging more. Looks like Drew Stubbs with less pop right now.

  16. #178
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    I bet Hamilton will not become a great leadoff hitter, not even a good one.
    I agree with everything you wrote till this point. I wouldn't be so sure.

    Hamilton has put up very choo like OBP's of 380, 410 and 412
    He's not old for his league 22 in AAA.
    And part of Hamilton's appeal as a prospect is the adjustments that he has made at every level of the game.

    That doesn't mean that he'll turn into a top flight leadoff man, but clearly he can still become one.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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  18. #179
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Just imagine what he could be 3-5 years from now. He doesn't have to be an all-star immediately. He shows that he loves the game, he takes instruction well per most people's observations and he finally figured out AAA in the last few months. Chances are He'll figure out the MLB too. Drew Stubbs comparison is not fair. Hamilton will never K as much as Stubbs. Not even as a rookie.

    We have a top tier prospect and he's going to produce for a long time. I can't wait for his debut, hope it's at home. The place will go crazy when he steals two bases his first time getting on base. I would put money on his chances to crack the NL top 10 in stolen bases in Sept. alone.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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  20. #180
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    I think a key will be not pushing him too fast. Let him learn and adjust at AAA until he is really ready for the big step. Then let him start in the 7th or 8th spot for at least a month or two - until he's made the adjustments at the big league level. Heck a full season if necessary. He is still really young - this isn't a 24 year old who needs to be pushed. Bring him up for some running and pinch hit and defensive duty this year. Play him in some blow out games. Let him pick minds of Votto and Choo and see what its like to be in a pennant race/playoffs and the big leagues. See how he responds. Let him compete in ST but don't be in a hurry to push him. Be ready to start him in AAA again. I'm convinced a lot of Billy's future success will depend on how well the Reds handle and judge his readiness.

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