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Thread: Billy Hamilton

  1. #181
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    To use him in the post season though they have to call him up before September.
    There is always a loophole with DL players. Anyone can be on postseason that is added after September.

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  3. #182
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Base stealing is not an important skill for the leadoff hitter.





    I bet Hamilton will not become a great leadoff hitter, not even a good one.
    Not disagreeing with what is in the quotes necessarily, but what/who are these quotes from?

  4. #183
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    I think getting Hamilton at bats September is key for his development. He obviously has a hard time adjusting to the next level, might as well do it now instead of early next year.

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  6. #184
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote:
    “The Book” lays out the most efficient strategy for the top of the lineup: a team’s three best hitters should bat in the Nos. 1, 2 and 4 spots, with the No. 1 hitter emphasizing walks and on-base percentage and the No. 4 hitter emphasizing slugging percentage. If anything, base stealing should be one of the least relevant skills for the leadoff hitter because the hitters behind him are generally the best on the team — meaning they do not need to rely on small-ball tactics to move runners into scoring position.
    We all value the importance of OBP.
    But to say that basestealing is not relevant because the 2,3, 4 hitters should not have to need to rely on small ball is just an absurd statement. (the author you sited, not you)
    Just like OBP is common sense, it's also common sense that it's easier to score from 2nd than it is from 1st..

    Speed plays a value in scoring runs once the batter has reached base.
    We went through this exercise last year.
    Stubbs scored at a much higher frequency than Hannigan when they reached base.
    Putting yourself in scoring position through extra base hits and successful steals is valuable.
    Obviously, there's also a minimum success rate necessary to make steals worthwhile.
    To dismiss the stolen base as the author of that quote did, really doesn't make sense.

    Which is better.. A leadoff guy with a .330 OBP that scores 50% of the time
    Or a leadoff guy with a .350 OBP that scores 33% of the time.
    All other hitters and their outcomes in the lineup are the same.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #185
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    We all value the importance of OBP.
    But to say that basestealing is not relevant because the 2,3, 4 hitters should not have to need to rely on small ball is just an absurd statement. (the author you sited, not you)
    Just like OBP is common sense, it's also common sense that it's easier to score from 2nd than it is from 1st..

    Speed plays a value in scoring runs once the batter has reached base.
    We went through this exercise last year.
    Stubbs scored at a much higher frequency than Hannigan when they reached base.
    Putting yourself in scoring position through extra base hits and successful steals is valuable.
    Obviously, there's also a minimum success rate necessary to make steals worthwhile.
    To dismiss the stolen base as the author of that quote did, really doesn't make sense.

    Which is better.. A leadoff guy with a .330 OBP that scores 50% of the time
    Or a leadoff guy with a .350 OBP that scores 33% of the time.
    All other hitters and their outcomes in the lineup are the same.
    Stubbs scored more than Hanigan because Stubbs wasn't batting 8th.

    I can't imagine your scenario of .330 or .350 playing out that way.

  8. #186
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Stubbs scored more than Hanigan because Stubbs wasn't batting 8th.

    I can't imagine your scenario of .330 or .350 playing out that way.
    I'm talking about % of times those "on base events" are converted into runs.

    Here's a another example
    Zach Cozart this year..
    when he bats 7th or 8th.
    7th: 20 runs, 37 hits, 6 BB..
    8th: 5 runs, 9 hits, 3
    total: 25 runs on 55 times on base = Zach scored 45% of the time he's on base.

    Interestingly, when Zach batted #2, he was on base 80 times and scored 39 runs, which is
    48%, which is pretty darn close to the rate he scored as a #7 / #8 hitter.

    Now Hanigan..
    For 2013: batting 8th.. 33 hits, 22 BB = 55 times on base. He only scored 15 runs.
    That's only 27%.
    Since Hanigan has been hurt this year, let's look at 2012:
    76 hits, 40 walks, 22 runs. That means he scored 18% of the time.


    Let's compare them to other major league teams:
    I am going to pick a few good teams and bad teams from mlb.com
    Not cherry picking, I just don't want to do the complete list.

    For 7th hitters, percentage of time an "on base event" converts to a run:
    Mets: 24%
    Brewers: 36%
    Giants: 26%
    Braves: 26%
    Cardinals: 32%

    For 8th hitters:
    Mets: 29%
    Brewers: 34%
    Giants: 29%
    Braves: 27%
    Cardinals: 36%

    Again, these were not cherry picked. I did not want to do the entire league.
    Just grabbed 5 teams.
    Seems like, based on these 5 teams, there's not a huge gap in the percentage a guy
    scores whether he bats 7th or 8th. Now granted, maybe if we ran the entire league, and
    did it for multiple years, a different conclusion would be reached.

    But compare that to the discrepancy we see between Hanigan and Cozart.
    Cozart is actually similiar to Stubbs. Nice speed, decent power.
    When Cozart actually gets on base, he scores at a high frequency.
    In contrast, when Hannigan gets on base, he has little power and a lot of his
    OBP comes from walks. So he starts off at first most of the time. Hannigan has
    poor speed, thus he is purely a station to station guy.. That means it takes more
    hits or smallball tactics to get him home.

    This is the entire point. Not all players are created equal when they get on base.
    OBP is important. The guys behind you influence how many times you score.
    But some guys (like Hannigan) lack power and speed to such a degree that their OBP
    is less valuable. Hannigan was healthy in 2012, had 334 plate appearances in the 8 hole and only
    scored 22 runs.. Doesn't that stick out like a sore thumb?
    If you want to blame the other hitters for his poor rate in 2012, Choo was added this year and his scoring percentage
    only creeped up to 27%, compared to Cozart's rate of 45% out of the 7 hole.
    Other teams do not have this large discrepancy based on batting order.

    This is why Hannigan would be a horrible #2 hitter. There's more to scoring runs than OBP, although
    OBP is certainly important. If Stubbs or Cozart could muster a 330-350 OBP, they'd be offensive stars.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  10. #187
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'm talking about % of times those "on base events" are converted into runs.

    Here's a another example
    Zach Cozart this year..
    when he bats 7th or 8th.
    7th: 20 runs, 37 hits, 6 BB..
    8th: 5 runs, 9 hits, 3
    total: 25 runs on 55 times on base = Zach scored 45% of the time he's on base.

    Interestingly, when Zach batted #2, he was on base 80 times and scored 39 runs, which is
    48%, which is pretty darn close to the rate he scored as a #7 / #8 hitter.

    Now Hanigan..
    For 2013: batting 8th.. 33 hits, 22 BB = 55 times on base. He only scored 15 runs.
    That's only 27%.
    Since Hanigan has been hurt this year, let's look at 2012:
    76 hits, 40 walks, 22 runs. That means he scored 18% of the time.


    Let's compare them to other major league teams:
    I am going to pick a few good teams and bad teams from mlb.com
    Not cherry picking, I just don't want to do the complete list.

    For 7th hitters, percentage of time an "on base event" converts to a run:
    Mets: 24%
    Brewers: 36%
    Giants: 26%
    Braves: 26%
    Cardinals: 32%

    For 8th hitters:
    Mets: 29%
    Brewers: 34%
    Giants: 29%
    Braves: 27%
    Cardinals: 36%

    Again, these were not cherry picked. I did not want to do the entire league.
    Just grabbed 5 teams.
    Seems like, based on these 5 teams, there's not a huge gap in the percentage a guy
    scores whether he bats 7th or 8th. Now granted, maybe if we ran the entire league, and
    did it for multiple years, a different conclusion would be reached.

    But compare that to the discrepancy we see between Hanigan and Cozart.
    Cozart is actually similiar to Stubbs. Nice speed, decent power.
    When Cozart actually gets on base, he scores at a high frequency.
    In contrast, when Hannigan gets on base, he has little power and a lot of his
    OBP comes from walks. So he starts off at first most of the time. Hannigan has
    poor speed, thus he is purely a station to station guy.. That means it takes more
    hits or smallball tactics to get him home.

    This is the entire point. Not all players are created equal when they get on base.
    OBP is important. The guys behind you influence how many times you score.
    But some guys (like Hannigan) lack power and speed to such a degree that their OBP
    is less valuable. Hannigan was healthy in 2012, had 334 plate appearances in the 8 hole and only
    scored 22 runs.. Doesn't that stick out like a sore thumb?
    If you want to blame the other hitters for his poor rate in 2012, Choo was added this year and his scoring percentage
    only creeped up to 27%, compared to Cozart's rate of 45% out of the 7 hole.
    Other teams do not have this large discrepancy based on batting order.

    This is why Hannigan would be a horrible #2 hitter. There's more to scoring runs than OBP, although
    OBP is certainly important. If Stubbs or Cozart could muster a 330-350 OBP, they'd be offensive stars.
    I know what you are saying, but your problem is that you are saying it is Hanigans fault he didn't score more without realizing who was hitting behind him. Of course Stubbs is going to score more when he is on base, he has starting players hitting directly behind him. Hanigan had the pitcher or a pinch hitter hitting directly behind him.

    Now, that isn't to say that Stubbs probably wouldn't score more often, because he is faster so he is likely to move a few more bases here and there because of that. But with the way it is presented it hides an awful lot.

    If you bat anyone directly in front of Chris Davis this year, he is going to score a whole lot more than if you bat him directly in front of Ichiro because there is an incredibly better hitter directly behind him.

  11. #188
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I know what you are saying, but your problem is that you are saying it is Hanigans fault he didn't score more without realizing who was hitting behind him. Of course Stubbs is going to score more when he is on base, he has starting players hitting directly behind him. Hanigan had the pitcher or a pinch hitter hitting directly behind him.

    Now, that isn't to say that Stubbs probably wouldn't score more often, because he is faster so he is likely to move a few more bases here and there because of that. But with the way it is presented it hides an awful lot.

    If you bat anyone directly in front of Chris Davis this year, he is going to score a whole lot more than if you bat him directly in front of Ichiro because there is an incredibly better hitter directly behind him.

    Well, in the example above, Cozart is probably in a less advantagous position to score (based on lineup position). When Cozart batted 7th, he had Hannigan and the pitcher next. When Hannigan batted 8th, he had the pitcher, then Choo..
    Yet, Cozart still scored at about double the rate of Hannigan.
    Cozart's run scoring % has been prolific this year regardless of whether he hits 2nd or 7th. Stubbs was the same way as a Red.

    I am saying that if you bat Cozart in front of Chris Davis, he's going to score a higher percentage of the time than if you bat Hannigan in front of Davis.

    And yes, it is Hannigan's fault he doesn't score very often.
    That's exactly the point I was trying to make. If a hitter has no speed or power, it negates some of his OBP. Most of the time Hannigan gets on, he's at 1b.
    Hannigan can seldom go from 1st to 3rd on a hit (compared to Cozart/Stubbs).
    I don't mean to be repetitive, but this is the stuff people ignore when we have these endless lineup discussions. It's is assumed (wrongly) that all OBP is created equal. It's not. Obviously speed and slugging percentage multiple the effectiveness of OBP. Again, this is one reason why Hannigan would be a horrible #2 hitter, even when he had a robust OBP. No one acknowledges this. They just want to look at the simple model of grouping the best OBP guys in the lineup together.

    The example above illustrates my point quite well, IMO.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #189
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Isn't it pretty much established that a base stealer needs to convert at least 75% of his attempts in order to have a net positive result on run production?

  13. #190
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    And yes, it is Hannigan's fault he doesn't score very often.
    That's exactly the point I was trying to make. If a hitter has no speed or power, it negates some of his OBP. Most of the time Hannigan gets on, he's at 1b.
    Hannigan can seldom go from 1st to 3rd on a hit (compared to Cozart/Stubbs).
    I don't mean to be repetitive, but this is the stuff people ignore when we have these endless lineup discussions. It's is assumed (wrongly) that all OBP is created equal.
    OBP is a stat that measures how much a guy gets on base. So as a stat, it is evenhanded.

    But who stops with OBP alone? No, it doesn't tell the whole story, but I thought this was the point of a stat like OPS or OPS+, which factors SLG into the equation. From this perspective, I don't think your Cozart (.393 lifetime SLG) or Stubbs (.384 lifetime SLG) examples hold very well since their lack of power puts them at .678 and .693 lifetime OPS respectively. So neither of them really "makes up" for their lack of OBP with extra base hits and while Hanigan certainly isn't setting the SLG world on fire either, he's about their equal at .362 lifetime, which with his better OBP puts him at .711 lifetime OPS.

    As far as base running is concerned, I think it is difficult to just compare % scoring outcomes without considering the larger context. Players can't just score by themselves, even if they are fast, and there are numerous other factors than speed that contribute to their ability to do so.
    Last edited by RedEye; 08-29-2013 at 05:45 PM.

  14. #191
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    OBP is a stat that measures how much a guy gets on base. So as a stat, it is evenhanded.

    But who stops with OBP alone? No, it doesn't tell the whole story, but I thought this was the point of a stat like OPS or OPS+, which factors SLG into the equation. From this perspective, I don't think your Cozart (.393 lifetime SLG) or Stubbs (.384 lifetime SLG) examples hold very well since their lack of power puts them at .678 and .693 lifetime OPS respectively. So neither of them really "makes up" for their lack of OBP with extra base hits and while Hanigan certainly isn't setting the SLG world on fire either, he's about their equal at .362 lifetime, which with his better OBP puts him at .711 lifetime OPS.

    As far as base running is concerned, I think it is difficult to just compare % scoring outcomes without considering the larger context. Players can't just score by themselves, even if they are fast, and there are numerous other factors than speed that contribute to their ability to do so.
    I think the factors other than OBP are vastly underestimated though.
    Case in point, last year, the lobbying for Hanigan to hit #2.
    Dusty and others are mocked for "Fast guy has to hit leadoff"

    In my example, Cozart scores dramatically more often, despite being in a LESS favorable lineup slot.
    Stubbs scored at a nice percentage clip last year too.

    Even straight OPS is misleading. It's a nice quick evaluation stat. I know everyone knows that, but it is often used as the gospel stat.

    There's a reason why Cozart and Stubbs score a heck of a lot more often than Hannigan, and it's not luck. Even when Hannigan's OBP was high, he was not scoring much, thus his OBP was not particularly useful. Not saying it is 100% his fault, but he doesn't have the skills that Cozart and Stubbs have to help himself score.

    Cozart has 37 extra base hits this year. So 27% of the time he got on base, it was either a HR or he was in scoring position.
    Hannigan only has 9 extra base hits this year. So he was only in scoring position or a HR "automatically" 15% of the time. I want to go back to last year since it was a bigger sample.. 2012 Hannigan 16 extra base hits, which is 12% of the time.
    That tells me more than OPS. That's not even factoring in speed.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  16. #192
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Isn't it pretty much established that a base stealer needs to convert at least 75% of his attempts in order to have a net positive result on run production?
    You can't establish a fixed conversion rate. Baseball's a dynamic sport. In a low-scoring, low-power context you can lower that number, in a high-scoring, high-power context you might move it to 80%.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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  18. #193
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    You can't establish a fixed conversion rate. Baseball's a dynamic sport. In a low-scoring, low-power context you can lower that number, in a high-scoring, high-power context you might move it to 80%.
    The break even point established by Tango around 10-15 years ago was 66%, based on general values for outs and extra bases. So technically, according to that, anything over 66% gives the team positive value. However, most have used the 75% as the point where the team starts to get meaningful positive production.

    But you are correct, those are big general numbers based on big general data. It's going to change as the value of runs, bases and outs change. Also, the situation of the stolen base attempt affects the value as well. A team that only steals when it's most valuable can have a lower success rate and maintain overall positive production, and vise versa.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  20. #194
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I know what you are saying, but your problem is that you are saying it is Hanigans fault he didn't score more without realizing who was hitting behind him. Of course Stubbs is going to score more when he is on base, he has starting players hitting directly behind him. Hanigan had the pitcher or a pinch hitter hitting directly behind him.

    Now, that isn't to say that Stubbs probably wouldn't score more often, because he is faster so he is likely to move a few more bases here and there because of that. But with the way it is presented it hides an awful lot.

    If you bat anyone directly in front of Chris Davis this year, he is going to score a whole lot more than if you bat him directly in front of Ichiro because there is an incredibly better hitter directly behind him.
    Doug, I've run the numbers with some assumptions too and the difference of the effect of speed can be pretty significant on run scoring -- enough to offset a bigger OBP gap than you might think.

    I recognize your point that having the pitcher hit after you makes it much less like you'll score. So I'm not sure what Cozart/Hanigan's real rates are, but go with me for the sake of discussion.

    It's actually really simple math. Likelihood of scoring a run in a PA = (Chance you get on base * Chance you score).

    OBP is the first. 10 points of OBP = 1% difference in likelihood of getting base.

    Since we're multiplying the two together, they trade off essentially equally. A 1% increase in the likelihood of scoring due to your power and/or base-running ability offsets a 10 point difference in OBP.

    So if Cozart is 10% more likely to score than Hanigan because he both hits for more power and runs better, than he can have a 100 point disadvantage in OBP and will end up scoring the same number of runs he personally scores.

    For example:

    Cozart: .280 OBP, 40% chance of scoring when batting 2nd
    Hanigan: .360 OBP, 30% chance of scoring when batting 2nd

    Cozart would have 67 runs in 600 PA. Hanigan would have 65 runs.

    The question really is, what's the real scale of differences in likelihood of run scoring from a given spot in the lineup as a function of speed and power?

    Just intuitively speaking, 10% doesn't strike me as completely unrealistic at at the extremes. While I've advocated for Hanigan in the past, the problem with him is that he's slow AND he doesn't hit for power; it's the epitome of "clogging the bases" in Dusty speak. I don't think it prevents the guys behind you from scoring much as Dusty's phrase suggests, but it's quite reasonable to suggest that it affects your chance of scoring.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  22. #195
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I think the factors other than OBP are vastly underestimated though.
    Case in point, last year, the lobbying for Hanigan to hit #2.
    Dusty and others are mocked for "Fast guy has to hit leadoff"

    In my example, Cozart scores dramatically more often, despite being in a LESS favorable lineup slot.
    Stubbs scored at a nice percentage clip last year too.

    Even straight OPS is misleading. It's a nice quick evaluation stat. I know everyone knows that, but it is often used as the gospel stat.
    Thank you for this. Combined with RMR and dougdirt, your insights have really taught me something!

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