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Thread: Billy Hamilton

  1. #106
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    From Keith Law's chat yesterday:
    http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48502
    Aidan (OH)

    I understand Billy Hamilton not making the top 50, but how do you feel about his current MLB projection?
    Klaw (1:04 PM)

    There's too high of a chance of him not hitting enough for the speed to play up - so much of his value will come from his legs, and if he's not strong enough to post an OBP much above .310-320, he's just a bit player.

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  3. #107
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    From Keith Law's chat yesterday:
    http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48502
    Funny, I remember an article, I think in Fangraphs, that said that with Hamilton's speed and defense, he'd be a near league averge CF (around a 2 WAR player) even if his OBP was around .280-.290.

    OBP is a huge issue for Hamilton, because he would be able to bat leadoff, if he had a decent one. His value would drop if he had to bat 8th.

    But a .320 OBP plus a .350 SLG, would be a .670 OPS. Not very good. But combined with elite speed on the basepaths, and a plus glove CF, that easily could be worth well above 2 WAR, making him much more than a bit player.

    Lets put it this way. Zack Cozart, with his .262 OBP, is on pace to put up a 1.2 WAR with his speed and defense this season.

    It looks like Law's not very good at math.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

  4. #108
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    I understand this is not a death sentence, as Billy can turn things around and prove everyone wrong (please God, let that happen), but I remember thinking to myself last year the offseason may be the best time to trade Hamilton, thinking it unlikely his stock would ever get higher.

  5. #109
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    This is what I was afraid of. From Baseball Prospectus:

    ďThe speed is absolutely fantastic. Heís fun to watch when heís on the bases, but I just donít see how itís going to work. Thereís nothing else that makes me believe heís an everyday big leaguer. You can knock the bat out of his hands with good velocity and he doesnít have the discerning eye to work counts and lay off spin. I just think the hit and on-base comes up short and heís a virtual zero offensively. If he can figure everything out in center field then maybe has a future hitting eighth or ninth and playing good D, but thatís even stretching it for me.Ē
    Always beware when speed is a prospect's best asset. Other than Carlos Gomez who was more of a post-hype guy, I can't remember when the last speed demon with questionable offensive skills panned out.

    Meanwhile, the road is littered with busts: Fernando Martinez, Julio Borbon, Felix Pie, the list goes on and on...

    Hopefully Hamilton becomes the exception rather than the rule. I haven't given up hope yet.
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #110
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    In retrospect, his good start in AA after last year's promotion probably didn't do him any favors, because it led the Reds to advance him to Louisville and set up the big-league roster with a stopgap CF. But Hamilton was a project from the beginning and he needs a lot of time in the forge. At age 22 in Triple-A and with the defensive position question settled, he's far from done developing and it's too early to write him off. But it sure looks like he won't be ready when the Reds hoped he'd be.
    Not all who wander are lost

  7. #111
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Have the Reds in recent memory moved a top prospect back to AA after struggling in AAA?

  8. #112
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    I wonder if its too late to hire Norris Hopper as Billy's personal bunting coach? Bat him 9th and just have him bunt 70% of the time.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #113
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I wonder if its too late to hire Norris Hopper as Billy's personal bunting coach? Bat him 9th and just have him bunt 70% of the time.
    Bunting isn't a problem. He is hitting .500 on bunts this year, including sac bunts (while he is credited with a sac bunt, he isn't trying to give himself up, so I am counting them in there). He is also bunting nearly twice as much this year as last year.

  10. #114
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Elite speed in CF but can't get on base, have we had anyone like that lately?

  11. #115
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bunting isn't a problem. He is hitting .500 on bunts this year, including sac bunts (while he is credited with a sac bunt, he isn't trying to give himself up, so I am counting them in there). He is also bunting nearly twice as much this year as last year.
    Which could be why his OBP is lower. Bunting doesn't allow you to get deeper in counts and allow the pitcher to walk you.

  12. #116
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    "You can knock the bat out of his hands with good velocity"

    Not good.

  13. #117
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    His K rate is on the rise. I see him again in AAA next year unless he suddenly finds his mojo at the dish.

  14. #118
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by holster10 View Post
    His K rate is on the rise. I see him again in AAA next year unless he suddenly finds his mojo at the dish.
    His K rate is identical to what it was last season in AA. It is up a tad from where it was in A+.

  15. #119
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Yesterday I took an in depth look at the batted ball types for Hamilton between 2012 and 2013. The groundballs difference was rather interesting. Not so much for the difference in how many, but the results of them from 2012 to 2013.

    http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/07/...illy-hamilton/

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    REDREAD (07-22-2013)

  17. #120
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    Re: Billy Hamilton

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yesterday I took an in depth look at the batted ball types for Hamilton between 2012 and 2013. The groundballs difference was rather interesting. Not so much for the difference in how many, but the results of them from 2012 to 2013.

    http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/07/...illy-hamilton/
    Interesting stuff. In order to provide some context, do you have a major league average for ground balls fielded by infielders?


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