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Thread: State of the team next year?

  1. #16
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    I think another issue people aren't touching is whether or not Bailey is set on testing free agency. If he continues his upward climb to a #2 or even #1 starter, he won't be Reds affordable.

    So do you deal him this offseason if the return is right or hang on and hope you can sign him?

    I've read he hates pitching in GABP.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  3. #17
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I think another issue people aren't touching is whether or not Bailey is set on testing free agency. If he continues his upward climb to a #2 or even #1 starter, he won't be Reds affordable.

    So do you deal him this offseason if the return is right or hang on and hope you can sign him?

    I've read he hates pitching in GABP.
    Unclear what the Reds needs are going to be outside of LF (assuming Choo doesn't re-sign). But if Choo doesn't stay, we may not need to shed payroll. If Choo does re-sign, and if Bailey could bring back a combo of Fried, Hedges and Venable from San Diego I'd pull the trigger (in the offseason, not now obviously). Colorado could be another destination with some combo of Josh Rutledge/Trevor Story and maybe David Dahl coming back.

    But my preference would be to keep Bailey and trade Leake, as I think Bailey has much better upside and would be worth trying to keep, whereas someone like Leake could easily be replaced by Corcino, let alone Cingrani.
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  4. #18
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Unclear what the Reds needs are going to be outside of LF (assuming Choo doesn't re-sign). But if Choo doesn't stay, we may not need to shed payroll. If Choo does re-sign, and if Bailey could bring back a combo of Fried, Hedges and Venable from San Diego I'd pull the trigger (in the offseason, not now obviously). Colorado could be another destination with some combo of Josh Rutledge/Trevor Story and maybe David Dahl coming back.

    But my preference would be to keep Bailey and trade Leake, as I think Bailey has much better upside and would be worth trying to keep, whereas someone like Leake could easily be replaced by Corcino, let alone Cingrani.
    If Cueto, Latos, and Bailey continue their quests to be #1's and #2's, the Reds won't be able to afford all 3. That's probably $50M-$60M of payroll, plus Joey and BP's. Not going to happen.

    Going to have to figure out who wants to be here and get some trade return on the ones who want to test FA.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

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  5. #19
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Give Arroyo Leake's money and move Leake or non-tender him if there are no deals. Use Hamilton, Cingrani and Corcino as cheap options to help out in the big leagues and use all that payflex in an attempt to extend Latos, Bailey and Cueto (in that order of preference).Chapman's deal likely converts to a bonus and he'll become arb eligible. The payflex we think we have will get used up quickly on raises for the pitching staff, and guys like Frazier and Cozart will start to get more money as well. I could see the Reds talking about a deal that locks Frazier up for a while and probably increases his current deal for some cost certainty down the road.

    Keeping the rotation strong seems more important than bringing in a big splash type (unless its a replacement for one of the starting pitchers).
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Give Arroyo Leake's money and move Leake or non-tender him if there are no deals. Use Hamilton, Cingrani and Corcino as cheap options to help out in the big leagues and use all that payflex in an attempt to extend Latos, Bailey and Cueto (in that order of preference).Chapman's deal likely converts to a bonus and he'll become arb eligible. The payflex we think we have will get used up quickly on raises for the pitching staff, and guys like Frazier and Cozart will start to get more money as well. I could see the Reds talking about a deal that locks Frazier up for a while and probably increases his current deal for some cost certainty down the road.

    Keeping the rotation strong seems more important than bringing in a big splash type (unless its a replacement for one of the starting pitchers).
    What about Choo?
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  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    What about Choo?

    I like him a lot and wouldn't mind keeping him, but he's 32 next year and will want a multi-year, "Scott Boras is my agent" deal. If Hamilton is the CF of the future, the Reds have a replacement. The money needs to be earmarked for Latos, Bailey, and Cueto. The Reds have kids to work into the back of the rotation in place of Arroyo or Leake, but I would want to see them step up before having to count on them as the front-line guys. Keep the front-line guys until the kids prove they can take the spot or their skills drop to the point of no longer being front-line guys. If they can get a bargain deal for Frazier, that makes him a reasonably priced player over the next five years, its probably a good idea, but it may require s decent sized signing bonus up front to make it happen. I'd be willing to eat into that 2014 payflex to make it happen and it would be a priority over a big deal for a guy heading into his mid-30s.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #22
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Leake needs to improve this year. If he can then he can stay in the back of the rotation. If he doesn't improve then Arroyo or a FA get the spot. They should be able to get someone decent for around $8M at most since it would be the 4th spot in the rotation. I'm assuming Cingrani would be the #5 guy if things go right. I think the Reds could afford to keep the big 3 intact for a few years but if Bailey doesn't get extended after this season I bet they'll keep him for 2014, offer him a contract, and take the pick if he leaves.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  9. #23
    Burn It Jamz's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    If we do end up letting Choo walk (after qualifying of course) because we can't afford him what are the other options around the league for someone that can play LF and hit at an elite level? Someone that might be playing for a bad team and we could package up some assets for?

    Honestly, I know that KC is playing well and might become a contending playoff bound team, but I would honestly love to pry Alex Gordon out of their hands.
    I see great things in baseball. It's our game.

  10. #24
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Interesting question. Will Arroyo definitely make more in 2014 than Leake? Leake will be 2nd year arb-eligible and Arroyo will be 37 years old. Despite his initial protest after arriving, he seems to love playing for Cincinnati and presumably wants to pitch for a contender in the twilight of his career. Unless Boston or the Yankees offer him a large deal, maybe he is willing to come back on a one year deal for less than $10MM. If so, I'd consider doing that and shipping Leake to San Diego for Austin Hedges and Will Venable (assuming Max Fried is untouchable).

    Actually, I'd see what Leake would make in 2014, then offer Arroyo the exact same salary. If he takes it, trade Leake. If he doesn't, let him walk. From a performance standpoint, I'd project them both very similarly for 2014, and I believe Leake has trade value (whereas Bronson is a FA).
    I think Arroyo will definitely make more than Leake next year.
    Best case for Leake next year.. maybe 5 million.
    If Arroyo has a year similiar to 2012, he could easily get a one year 10 million dollar offer as a FA.. In fact, he'd probably have no problem getting 2/20.
    Pitching is very scarce.

    I can still go with your strategy of maybe resigning Bronson and trading Leake though.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  11. #25
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I think another issue people aren't touching is whether or not Bailey is set on testing free agency. If he continues his upward climb to a #2 or even #1 starter, he won't be Reds affordable.

    So do you deal him this offseason if the return is right or hang on and hope you can sign him?

    I've read he hates pitching in GABP.
    No way IMO. Whether to resign Choo, Bailey, or pretty much anybody long-term is a tough decision and I don't envy those making them. The one thing that I'm adament about though is that you don't choose to break things up earlier than you need to in the middle of a championship window. Who knows if we'll be any good in 3-4 years, but we're going to be good in 2014. You don't trade away one of the reasons why unless it makes you better in 2014 (which I don't think will be the case).

    If Bailey walks post-2014, so be it.

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  13. #26
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jamz View Post
    If we do end up letting Choo walk (after qualifying of course) because we can't afford him what are the other options around the league for someone that can play LF and hit at an elite level? Someone that might be playing for a bad team and we could package up some assets for?

    Honestly, I know that KC is playing well and might become a contending playoff bound team, but I would honestly love to pry Alex Gordon out of their hands.
    Well there's that Stanton fellow from Miami

    Problem with Gordon is he hits left-handed and Dusty is still the manager.
    Go BLUE!!!

  14. #27
    OCS Prez Cant Touch This's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post

    OR (annoying the rest of Redszone alert):

    1. Re-sign Choo.
    2. Trade Hamilton, Chapman, Corcino and Ludwick for Giancarlo Stanton.
    3. Let Arroyo walk.
    Your trade scares me. Watching Stanon play RF was like watching my 9 year old son's team play baseball on Saturday. Except just a tad worse.
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  15. #28
    Joey Votto Fangirl HeatherC1212's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    *wrong name alert*

    His name is actually Alfredo SIMON, not Simon Alfredo. I'm sorry to be that annoying person but it's a major pet peeve of mine when people get names wrong.

    *runs off and hides*
    "I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search

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  16. #29
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    If Bronson Arroyo would like to go the Tim Wakeman route and be the underpaid elderstatesman on a very good team, bring him back. Otherwise, you buy him a watch, thank him for his years of service and let him go.

    Cingrani can step into Arroyo's shoes. I think the window for the reds to use Chapman as a starter and get value for their money has now closed. (I could be wrong. it's an opinion)

    Make an offer on Choo, what Bowden used to call a competitive offer. Not the offer he's going to sign if he's looking for the most money. Make the offer very public. If he doesn't sign it....buy him a watch and thank him for a year of service and let him go.

    Right now, Billy Hamilton is hitting 230 in AAA. So...they have $28 million or so to plug up centerfield for a year and improve the team.

    As long as everybody else stays healthy and produces, I like those apples.

    I think I would zag when everybody else is zigging. Yes, it would be nice to keep Homer around for a long time, but he doesn't care for the ballpark. I talk with his agent in the hopes that maybe we can do something, but all the time I keep talking with Mike Leake's agent.

    I know....I know Mike Leake is never going to start an all star game for the national league. I know that Mike Leake will likely never start game 1 of a playoff series for the reds. I know his K/9 rate is at the edge of a cliff.

    All that aside.....Here is a 25 year old who has survived 3 years of full time starting in the majors without a serious injury. By all accounts he's a smart competitive young man who is a baseball player before he's a prima donna athelete.

    This off season will be his arb-2 year. I talk with his agent about 5 year contract.

    A ton of money is about to enter baseball over the next couple of years via new media contracts. That money will inflate player salaries. What will see the most inflation? Good, Healthy Free agent starting pitching. Lock up Mike Leake into a 5 year $30 million dollar contract and your accountants will be smiling 5 years from now.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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  18. #30
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: State of the team next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by HeatherC1212 View Post
    *wrong name alert*

    His name is actually Alfredo SIMON, not Simon Alfredo. I'm sorry to be that annoying person but it's a major pet peeve of mine when people get names wrong.

    *runs off and hides*
    We'll take note of that, C1212Heather.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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