I agree with you on this. One thing that tells me he's going to have a huge year is that his walk rate is back to where it was a couple of years ago. He leads the AL in walks with 11 thus far. Half of his 10 hits have also gone as extra base hits.Originally Posted by R_Webb18
They do have a good line up but its also very, very lucky and while playing in a pitchers park out hit teams that play in hitters parks. No matter how stack your team is having a .400 BA with RISP 100 AB in is a fluke stat not a skill.
Last edited by HometownHero; 04-14-2013 at 02:04 AM.
Well lets compare the starting 5's without Cueto
Wainwright>Latos: Can't argue this. The pedigree is there for Wainwright
Garcia>Arroyo: until Garcia's shoulder falls off. Which could be tomorrow or never.
Lynn>/=Bailey: As of right now i think these two are very close. Lynn has been an all-star though (voted in by the players and not TLR as some on this board might believe).
Westbrook=Leake: Neither will ever make a post season roster. they serve their purpose.
Miller>Cingrani/Corcino: As of right now this can't be argued. One has MLB experience as a starter and has done quite well so far while the other two have never even sniffed an MLB start.
Are you still sure? I think it's much closer than you think
Wainwright has the pedigree and the injuries. Latos was much better than Wainwright last year, and so far this year. Give me Latos, but it's close.
Much rather have Arroyo than Garcia, not even close. One gives you quality starts, innings and durability. One has been effective in a very short, injury riddled career. Give me stability over short term success every time, even without the injuries.
Well, Homer has a no hitter, which is about as meaningful as an All-Star appearance (Matt Capps was an All-Star two years ago and is now in the minors.) Bailey was better last year in pretty much every important stat, and has oceans more experience. Bailey in a cakewalk.
Leake/Westbrook - Tie One has been mediocre for much longer, pretty much the only difference.
Miller over Cingrani by a smidge, but only because he is the majors. Basically both are wild cards that can't be depended on for anything. By the way, if Cueto is out for the year, the Reds could move Chapman back to the rotation.
Also, overall, the Reds have more pitchers that can give 200+ quality innings. More experience and more durable. I would much rather have them over the question marks that plague the Cardinal rotation.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
He does have power but he's not going to be hitting well over .300 while going deep every 14.4 AB like he does in those hitters leagues.
What about it he had a crazy low SO rate in 2012 and there is a good shot he will never match it ever again, but he walked far less often once you take out the IBB. Putting the ball in play took his wacky .440 BABIP down to .323 last year and resulted in more DP balls going from 15 his first 3 partial years to 17 in 2012.
Last edited by HometownHero; 04-14-2013 at 02:16 AM.
I don't think Comparing them slot by slot is the way to evaluate rotations. These need to be taken as a whole. Lets rank them without Cueto,
Wainwright
Latos
Bailey
Garcia
Arroyo
Lynn
Westbrook
Miller
Cingrani
Leake
I think losing Cueto would take away the Reds advantage and with Miller and Cingrani question marks and Leake below average, it could play out lots of different ways. I think with Cueto, the Reds have a clear advantage by having, IMO, the numbers 2, 3 and 4 guys out of the 10, but without Cueto its a push at best for the Reds and may be advantage Cards. As for depth, the Cards have Kelly who may be as good as Westbrook or Leake right now. In fact, with Motte out, I'd consider moving Kelly into the rotation and making Lynn the closer if I was the St. Louis braintrust.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Still, regardless of how one ranks them individually, the big issue for me is that every single Cardinal starter has huge question marks about them. None of them are reliable for 30+ starts and 200+ innings, while every Reds starter except whoever fills in for Cueto would be. That's huge.
Basically your ranking of every Cardinal is based on a best case scenario. But Wainwright is coming off of TJ surgery, and really hasn't been consistent yet. Garcia has never been able to go deep into games and has been hurt multiple times, including the end of last year. Lynn is in his second year, and got beat up mightily his second time around the league. And Westbrook is 35 with a history of injuries.
You can't talk about depth and not include Chapman for the Reds. If Kelly or Rosenthal could go into the Cardinal rotation, so could Chapman into the Reds, and he has the potential to be better than all of them.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Why is Wainwright coming off a TJ surgery an issue this year? He's pretty much two full years removed from TJ surgery. Most pitchers who had that surgery are fully healthy gain. What tells me Waino is back is that he hasn't walked anyone this year. Also to not even give him credit for being a work horse is missing the mark.
Wainwright has given this to the Cardinals:
2009: 34 games started, 233 innings
2010: 33 games started, 230.1 innings
2012: 32 games started, 198.2 innings
The point is that Wainwright has proven to give the Cardinals innings.
The same with Westbrook. He has generally a tweak a year but he's still pretty reliable.
2010: 33 games started for Cardinals and Indians, 202 innings
2011: 33 games started, 183 innings
2012: 28 games started, 174.2 innings
Why do you also assume that Chapman can go if there are injuries for the Reds? He isn't conditioned to be a starter and he certainly isn't taking Cueto's position right now that Cueto is on the DL. Plus, not only can Kelly take the ball for the Cardinals but Michael Wacha, who's pretty much major league ready now, is waiting in the wings. In terms of legit starting depth, I think the Cardinals are a bit deeper than the Reds are right now.
First off, where did I ever say he was going to be a 14.4 AB kind of hitter or say that he was going to be a .300 hitter? I'm just disagreeing with your notion that Adams was a product of a hitters league. It might explain some of his home runs but it certainly doesn't explain all of them. He has legit big league power, as he showed again today hitting a HR deep to center field and almost half way up the grass there. He's certainly a legit viable option when the starters need rest and he's a viable power bat off the bench.
I still do not understand where you're getting or why you seem to be dumbfounded with Taveras. He's legitimately the top hitting prospect in baseball regardless of a short porch in left field.
Here are his K rates thus far in the minors:
2009: 13.2
2010: 17.6
2011: 14.9
2012: 10.5
He spiked at 17.6% which is still very low for a kid who was 18 and for any minor league player for that matter. As he has gotten older, he's proven to mature as a hitter. If he even hovers around a 14 or 15 percent K rate for the entirety of his career, that would be considered pretty spectacular for any player in the majors. You also sort of defeated your own argument by pointing out his BABIP. Even with his decreasing BABIP last year from the insane BABIP in 2011, he managed to put up monster numbers with increased gap to gap ability in 2012. You can stick your head in the sand on Taveras but regardless of what you say here, he's still going to be considered the best prospect in the minors behind Profar and still have a high offensive ceiling.
Last edited by MikeThierry; 04-14-2013 at 09:21 PM.
Anyone whose had TJ surgery will always be a question mark going forward. Look at the list if guys who had it. Extremely rare for guys who had it at Wainright's age to bounce back as starters and produce like they did before. But even if you count him and Westbrook, that's two who have given the team 30 starts and 200 innings. The Reds have four guys, even if Cueto is out for the season.
And why is Macha, who has 4 minor league starts, ready to start in the majors but Chapman isn't? Cards have Kelly, Rosenthall and Wacha, Reds have Chapman, Cingrani and Corcino. Don't see any difference, except one, Chapman, has the talent to win a Cy Young.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Taveras is a good hitting prospect but he isn't as good as inflated minor league numbers indicate. He didn't have any love until he blew up for a crazy .440 BABIP and then seen a big HR spike playing in the Texas League north which has 3 of 4 parks that are amazing hitters parks for LHH and the reason he, Rasmus and Adams all spiked in HR at that park and league. Then they move to the PCL which is full of hitters parks and they become extreme when the go out west to places Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, Las Vegas, Reno, Salt Lake and Tucson.
Its why Tyler Greene posted...
.290/.371/473/.844 at AAA
..then get called up and post...
.224/.292/.356/.647
Cardinals fans wanted to blame LaRussa for it, then he sucked under Matheny and then with Astros then cut forcing them to admit he was just bad.
Last edited by HometownHero; 04-14-2013 at 09:31 PM.
Why are we arguing about the Cardinals on Redzone?
Mike Thierry on a Reds board of all place gets upset if we don't bow down to the Cardinals. This lead to the scoreboard watching thread getting hijacked and the mods made this for him to keep on dragging out his battles attempting to convince us all how skilled they are and how they never have any crazy luck to win and how all their minor leagues will either match or exceed their minor league numbers and they never have any prospects fail.
hahaha you're using Butters as an example to prove your point? That's a SMH example if I've ever seen one. In no way can you even compare what Butters did in the minors to what Taveras is doing or has done. He was a strike out machine in the minors even with his slight uptick in home runs. The same with Rasmus. You also to conveniently ignore what Taveras did in terms of doubles and triples last season along with his age. It's silly to believe that Taveras is the same kind of hitter with the same kind of power now as he was when he was 17 when he started his minor league career.
Even when you started the discussion there? I also love it how you take everything I've said out of proportion and pretty much distort everything I said. Are you always this dishonest?
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