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Thread: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

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    30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Johnny Cueto is now expected to miss 3-4 weeks. Ryan Ludwick is out 6-12 weeks. Tony Cingrani will be making at least 3-4 starts (unless he bombs).

    So what happens if he does exactly the opposite?

    It appears likely the Reds are going to let Chris Heisey and Xavier Paul get the bulk of the LF starts with Choo remaining in CF over the next 3-4 weeks. I'm OK with that. However, if Tony Cingrani looks anything close to as good as he's looked in AAA over his first 3-4 big league starts, there is no way the Reds can send him down after that, right?

    The obvious logic says Leake to the bullpen. I say, in this scenario, trade Leake to San Diego for Will Venable and Austin Hedges. Pencil Venable into the LF slot and 2 hole of the lineup, at least until Ludwick comes back. If/when Ludwick comes back healthy, platoon the two of them:

    Venable career vs. RHP: .774 (180 points higher than vs. RHP)
    Ludwick's OPS vs. LHP is .100 points higher in the last two years than it is against RHP. Lasy year, Ludwick's OPS vs. LHP was .937.

    If the Reds can get solid .820-.840 OPS out of LF, and replace Leake in the rotation with Cingrani, they will be an improved team. They will also pick up one of the game's better catching prospects in the process (in case Mez doesn't figure things out), and can sign Arroyo to a 1 year deal at a hometown discount to be the 5th starter for 2014 if Corcino doesn't look to be ready to step in. In my view, this is a win-win-win scenario.
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    Retro-Gamer Krawhitham's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    They can send Leake down, I do believe he still has options left. And if he continues as is he will be the one that goes down, he is close to untradeable unless you just want to give him away

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    I would prefer Tony take over for Leake.....and Chapman take over for Cueto.
    Chapman is being wasted right now....even more than we expected he would be.

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    They can send Leake down, I do believe he still has options left. And if he continues as is he will be the one that goes down, he is close to untradeable unless you just want to give him away
    Not sure about that. As a 25 year old innings eater with a career 4.29 ERA, I think he has a decent amount of value to a pitching-starved team that plays in a spacious park. You're talking about a team where Edinson Volquez and his 11+ ERA is the ace! The fact that Leake is a SD native is icing on the cake.

    Obviously if he can't bring back much in a trade, then I send him down to get straightened out. But I'd like to address the OF situation sooner rather than later, and he seems like the best candidate to get dealt.
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-15-2013 at 05:30 PM.
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    always ask questions bigredmechanism's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    I would prefer Tony take over for Leake.....and Chapman take over for Cueto.
    Chapman is being wasted right now....even more than we expected he would be.
    The Chapman cake is already baked. He's the closer. Whether we like it or not, I think that debate is over for good.

    If Cingrani does well, and Leake does poorly, I think keeping him up in Cincy is the right move. We're close to a world series run, and I want the best team out there as much as possible.

    Really there are so many contingencies that trying to predict what will happen gets quite murky.
    Award Winning Baseball Player

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    I can see a scenerio where Leake enters the pen and maybe a Simon or someone else is out. However, Leake will get several more shots to show that he can throw 4 different pitches for strikes and be a very productive 5th starter. Many different things can work out. I just hope Marshall gets back soon. The pen really needs him as Hoover has had a rough start and whatever that was with Broxton. Tough start for the REds, but remember the same thing happened last year and we did well. We've already had more key injuries then all of last season. I kind of expected that. Thankfully none that are 2013 ending.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    They can send Leake down, I do believe he still has options left. And if he continues as is he will be the one that goes down, he is close to untradeable unless you just want to give him away
    I thought I read somewhere that Leake has too much service time to be optioned.

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    Retro-Gamer Krawhitham's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Not sure about that. As a 25 year old innings eater with a career 4.29 ERA, I think he has a decent amount of value to a pitching-starved team that plays in a spacious park. You're talking about a team where Edinson Volquez and his 11+ ERA is the ace! The fact that Leake is a SD native is icing on the cake.

    Obviously if he can't bring back much in a trade, then I send him down to get straightened out. But I'd like to address the OF situation sooner rather than later, and he seems like the best candidate to get dealt.
    less compare his stats last season to all other qualified starters in the NL

    Out of 46 NL starters Leake ranked
    43rd in ERA
    37th in WHIP
    45th in OPS against
    46th in BAA

    OK how about this season

    Out of 50 NL starters Leake ranks
    47th in ERA
    49th in WHIP
    48th in OPS against
    48th in BAA

    Yes Leake is that bad, almost everybody has someone better than him as their 5th starter already

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Leake can refuse assignment to AAA as a player with 3 years of service time. And why wouldn't he? Someone would pick him up. We all complain about him (well, most of us), but plenty of teams would love to have someone like him in the 4th or 5th spots.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    less compare his stats last season to all other qualified starters in the NL

    Out of 46 NL starters Leake ranked
    43rd in ERA
    37th in WHIP
    45th in OPS against
    46th in BAA

    OK how about this season

    Out of 50 NL starters Leake ranks
    47th in ERA
    49th in WHIP
    48th in OPS against
    48th in BAA

    Yes Leake is that bad, almost everybody has someone better than him as their 5th starter already
    Almost everybody has a fifth starter as good (or more important as reliable - we at least know what Leake is) as Leake? Check in at seasons end on this.

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    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    less compare his stats last season to all other qualified starters in the NL

    Out of 46 NL starters Leake ranked
    43rd in ERA
    37th in WHIP
    45th in OPS against
    46th in BAA

    OK how about this season

    Out of 50 NL starters Leake ranks
    47th in ERA
    49th in WHIP
    48th in OPS against
    48th in BAA

    Yes Leake is that bad, almost everybody has someone better than him as their 5th starter already
    Ouch, those stats hurt to look at. But, the fact that he can refuse assignment to AAA changes things. The Reds don't have that much starting pitching depth that they can afford to see him go right now if he did refuse assignment. Would he though?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    less compare his stats last season to all other qualified starters in the NL

    Out of 46 NL starters Leake ranked
    43rd in ERA
    37th in WHIP
    45th in OPS against
    46th in BAA

    OK how about this season

    Out of 50 NL starters Leake ranks
    47th in ERA
    49th in WHIP
    48th in OPS against
    48th in BAA

    Yes Leake is that bad, almost everybody has someone better than him as their 5th starter already
    158 different pitchers started in the NL last year. The fact that Leake had the innings to qualify for rate stats is a testament to him. The Mets have one guy in their 2013 rotation who qualified last year, you don't think they'd take Leake?

    The Padres opening day starter was EDINSON VOLQUEZ!
    Last edited by Crumbley; 04-15-2013 at 07:34 PM.

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    less compare his stats last season to all other qualified starters in the NL

    Out of 46 NL starters Leake ranked
    43rd in ERA
    37th in WHIP
    45th in OPS against
    46th in BAA

    OK how about this season

    Out of 50 NL starters Leake ranks
    47th in ERA
    49th in WHIP
    48th in OPS against
    48th in BAA

    Yes Leake is that bad, almost everybody has someone better than him as their 5th starter already
    This tells me how good he really was last year.

    If 16 NL teams last year had 5 starters... that's 80 starters.

    That means top 16 your typical 1
    top 32 your typical 2
    top 48 your typical 3 and so on... now some teams had 5 legit starters and others had none.

    That puts Leake as an average to slightly below average 3 starter in the NL last year.

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    This tells me how good he really was last year.

    If 16 NL teams last year had 5 starters... that's 80 starters.

    That means top 16 your typical 1
    top 32 your typical 2
    top 48 your typical 3 and so on... now some teams had 5 legit starters and others had none.

    That puts Leake as an average to slightly below average 3 starter in the NL last year.
    Gotta love that math thing.

    The original question is the type of thing you start worrying about 45 days from now when Cueto is ready to come back and you have no obvious move to make. It really makes you appreciate the health they had in the starting rotation last year. Most likely by the time Cueto is ready to come back, someone else has already gone down and the question has already solved itself.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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