30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

[membengal]

Sure. But the point stands, Leake will always need an element of luck, and will always struggle when he doesn't get that element*, as he is one of those who doesn't have swing and miss stuff. So, for me, as between Leake and a guy like Cingrani who does have swing and miss stuff, which takes a piece of that luck off the table, I would prefer Cingrani. Not worth fighting over, or melting the board down over, just stating what I would prefer. I would keep the lefty in the rotation who misses bats and works in the 90s over the 5th righty in the rotation who is a bit at the mercy of what an ump's strike zone is that night and relies on what is, for him, sometimes fleeting command.

*Yes, ALL pitchers needs an element of luck, and I freely acknowledge that, but also, at that point, find myself, as most would, being more comfortable with pitchers who miss bats as it limits, at least a little bit, some of that luck element (attack of the commas).

[mth123]

Sure. But the point stands, Leake will always need an element of luck, and will always struggle when he doesn't get that element*, as he is one of those who doesn't have swing and miss stuff. So, for me, as between Leake and a guy like Cingrani who does have swing and miss stuff, which takes a piece of that luck off the table, I would prefer Cingrani. Not worth fighting over, or melting the board down over, just stating what I would prefer. I would keep the lefty in the rotation who misses bats and works in the 90s over the 5th righty in the rotation who is a bit at the mercy of what an ump's strike zone is that night and relies on what is, for him, sometimes fleeting command.

*Yes, ALL pitchers needs an element of luck, and I freely acknowledge that, but also, at that point, find myself, as most would, being more comfortable with pitchers who miss bats as it limits, at least a little bit, some of that luck element (attack of the commas).

Long term, I don't think there is a question that Cingrani > Leake. But until Cingrani can mix in more secondary stuff, that long term won't last that long. The league will figure him out just like they did Leake at about this point in the season in 2010. The difference here is that Leake doesn't really have anything else to offer other than what we see. Cingrani can add some secondary stuff and I think the league will have a hard time with him for a long, long time. My vote is that Cingrani goes down and throw no more than 50% fastball for a month or two and comes back-up even better when he's needed again or has gotten that stuff to the point where they need to make way for him. IMO, he has more to do before he's a long term stud and I'd prefer he not learn those lessons on the big league team in a pennant race. When Cueto returns, the Reds will have a rotation filled with 5 good starters (and yes, Leake and Arroyo are good starters) and Cingrani will have the opportunity to finish his development.

You've fought well young Skywalker. Now go back and finish your Jedi training because you're going to need those skills down the road to excel over the long haul. (Jeez that sounds nerdy and I'm not even a big Star Wars fan, but it does apply in this situation IMO).

[membengal]

He's fought well, and he's better than Leake now. That's pretty much my point.

As I said, the Reds will do what the Reds will do, and there is no sense complaining about it. Hope Leake is better than he has been in his career up to this point. But I will have a tinge of fans regret everytime Leake pitches to the back of his card knowing that there is someone better than him that the team is not using.*

*All, of course, IMO.

[kaldaniels]

He's fought well, and he's better than Leake now. That's pretty much my point.

As I said, the Reds will do what the Reds will do, and there is no sense complaining about it. Hope Leake is better than he has been in his career up to this point. But I will have a tinge of fans regret everytime Leake pitches to the back of his card knowing that there is someone better than him that the team is not using.*

*All, of course, IMO.

The back of his baseball card is right around 6 IP 3 runs. Fine by me if we ride that out and let Tony be groomed a bit more.

[membengal]

The back of his baseball card is right around 6 IP 3 runs. Fine by me if we ride that out and let Tony be groomed a bit more.

I get that, and come down on the other side. Nothing i say will change your mind, and same you to me. Which brings me whole circle to your complaint on this thread not being bumped. I haven't seen anything which changes the calculus for either side, really. I am not aware that leake has changed his skillset and am sure that the make-cingrani-ride-a-bus crowd is locking in on his fastball usage and it makes them grumpy despite the fact that it gets people out a lot better than leake's assortment of pitches.. It is what it is. Not sure there was much new to add.

[Kc61]

I think some of these Leake/Cingrani comparisons are way premature.

Both are still developing. Neither is a consistent major league starter yet. I don't assume Cingrani is better because he got strikeouts in a few early outings. I don't assume Leake is better because he's been in the show longer with some success.

The key point is that with Arroyo's contract up both Leake and Cingrani are likely to have spots in the rotation starting next year. They probably are both keepers for awhile.

It seems pretty clear that Cingrani will either go to AAA or less likely to the bullpen this year.

So there really isn't much to discuss. Neither is being traded. Both are in the plans. Cingrani likely goes to AAA to develop. That's the likely plan. Hope they both become all stars.

[kaldaniels]

I get that, and come down on the other side. Nothing i say will change your mind, and same you to me. Which brings me whole circle to your complaint on this thread not being bumped. I haven't seen anything which changes the calculus for either side, really. I am not aware that leake has changed his skillset and am sure that the make-cingrani-ride-a-bus crowd is locking in on his fastball usage and it makes them grumpy despite the fact that it gets people out a lot better than leake's assortment of pitches.. It is what it is. Not sure there was much new to add.

That's fine. But when you mention Reds fans will regret him pitching to the back of his card, I wanted to be clear to everyone what that actually was. I was not trying to change your mind. Not sure why you keep focusing on the thread not being bumped remark...I guess you didn't like it. This is all good discussion when talking about the two.

[kaldaniels]

Dp

[kaldaniels]

Triple post...mods please deduct two posts from my post count!

[KittyDuran]

Long term, I don't think there is a question that Cingrani > Leake. But until Cingrani can mix in more secondary stuff, that long term won't last that long. The league will figure him out just like they did Leake at about this point in the season in 2010. The difference here is that Leake doesn't really have anything else to offer other than what we see. Cingrani can add some secondary stuff and I think the league will have a hard time with him for a long, long time. My vote is that Cingrani goes down and throw no more than 50% fastball for a month or two and comes back-up even better when he's needed again or has gotten that stuff to the point where they need to make way for him. IMO, he has more to do before he's a long term stud and I'd prefer he not learn those lessons on the big league team in a pennant race. When Cueto returns, the Reds will have a rotation filled with 5 good starters (and yes, Leake and Arroyo are good starters) and Cingrani will have the opportunity to finish his development.

You've fought well young Skywalker. Now go back and finish your Jedi training because you're going to need those skills down the road to excel over the long haul. (Jeez that sounds nerdy and I'm not even a big Star Wars fan, but it does apply in this situation IMO).

Not only did they figure Mike out in 2010 but he was racking up innings pitched so the team had to shut him down before the end of the season.
Tony's pitch count is what worries me. His stuff is much better than Mike's () but it's nothing if he has to be taken out around the 5th inning and let the bullpen take over. If the Reds are ahead and you're shutting out the other team, that's great, but the pressure is still on the bullpen to finish it out (A much better scenario than having the bullpen come in to bail you out, but still).

As much as I like Mike I think that this is his last year with the team - only because I believe they will give Arroyo another season. Also depending on where the team is around the All-Star break he could be packaged in a trade. Many on this forum think that Mike's worthless, but IMHO he's a very good 5th starter that other teams would die to have.

[membengal]

That's fine. But when you mention Reds fans will regret him pitching to the back of his card, I wanted to be clear to everyone what that actually was. I was not trying to change your mind. Not sure why you keep focusing on the thread not being bumped remark...I guess you didn't like it. This is all good discussion when talking about the two.

I only mentioned the bumping because it felt like a "call out" from you with regard to people who think Cingrani is better and should stay. I am one of those, but don't see the value in updating it on each outing from each pitcher. If that wasn't your intent, fine, but there felt like an element of call out in the bump. My views have not changed based on what we have seen to date.

[REDREAD]

Sure. But the point stands, Leake will always need an element of luck, and will always struggle when he doesn't get that element*, as he is one of those who doesn't have swing and miss stuff.

I agree that Leake is more hittable than some of the better pitchers like Latos.
Leake is not a strikeout guy (that's not debatable).
However, overall Leake has a pretty nice ability to induce groundballs and double plays when he needs them. He also generally goes deep into games (certianly deeper than Cingrani has so far).

I guess I wouldn't say "Leake needs luck".. In Leake's last start, the bases got loaded against him, due to two infield hits.. yet, Leake was able to pitch out of the inning without giving up runs by inducing more groundballs. So, yes.. some of Leake's groundballs will find holes, but he's effective enough to keep the team in ballgame most of the time.

I'm trying to say Leake has skills other than getting strikeouts which help him become effective.
Now, I know you aren't saying Leake sucks.
I can also concede that Cingrani might eventually have the better career.

[kaldaniels]

I only mentioned the bumping because it felt like a "call out" from you with regard to people who think Cingrani is better and should stay. I am one of those, but don't see the value in updating it on each outing from each pitcher. If that wasn't your intent, fine, but there felt like an element of call out in the bump. My views have not changed based on what we have seen to date.

Without dragging Beni into things, this thread went from posts like "1 (start) down" and "we are 1/3 of the way into the month..." to silence on the update front. Now I ribbed Beni on that, and I actually said "I'm just ribbing" in the referenced post...but it was true. Leake was improving, Cingrani had a few bumps (I like Tony) and the thread went dark. I did not complain as you accused me of. Just made a crack and left it at that, and Beni gave a simple response. Done as far as I am concerned. But multiple times you mentioned that remark so it must have struck a nerve. It was certainly not meant to do so (especially in terms of the big picture...I'm excited for Tony to be 100 percent ready). Just wanted to make a wisecrack. And I know better than to try to change hearts and minds...but I will always try to show my thought process so perhaps I am not thought of as a nutjob by the opposition.

[membengal]

I agree that Leake is more hittable than some of the better pitchers like Latos.
Leake is not a strikeout guy (that's not debatable).
However, overall Leake has a pretty nice ability to induce groundballs and double plays when he needs them. He also generally goes deep into games (certianly deeper than Cingrani has so far).

I guess I wouldn't say "Leake needs luck".. In Leake's last start, the bases got loaded against him, due to two infield hits.. yet, Leake was able to pitch out of the inning without giving up runs by inducing more groundballs. So, yes.. some of Leake's groundballs will find holes, but he's effective enough to keep the team in ballgame most of the time.

I'm trying to say Leake has skills other than getting strikeouts which help him become effective.
Now, I know you aren't saying Leake sucks.
I can also concede that Cingrani might eventually have the better career.

I am indeed not saying that about Leake - he doesn't suck. Just noting that guys with lower K:9 rates open themselves up to needing more defensive help, and that there is an inevitable element of luck to balls in play. I do subscribe, as a general proposition, to the less balls in play the better viewpoint. And since we have an option here who appears to be ready with a better K:9 AND is a lefty (I value having a lefty in the rotation...again, my personal preference all things being equal), that's what I would do, is keep Cingrani in place.

ETA: If this discussion were still about Wood vs. Leake, I would be a lot more "flip a coin" about it, as I view each of those pitchers are relying on an element of luck in terms of balls in play. Cingrani appears to be of a different stripe on that count, hence my attraction to him remaining in the rotation going forward.

[mth123]

I think Cingrani is better now and I think he'll be better long-term, but if he doesn't add something besides a fastball, I have serious doubts that he'll be better in about mid-June or so. It's a long season, the Reds will likely suffer more absences in the rotation that will require Cingrani's services. I want him to continue to develop so he's not a batting tee when that happens. Keep Cingrani, the league catches up, somebody else goes down and suddenly there's a hole in the rotation. Send Cingrani down, he develops some more and when somebody goes down he'll have it covered. If nobody goes down, Leake can go to the pen as the fail-safe when Cngrani is really ready.