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Thread: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

  1. #16
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Krawhitham View Post
    They can send Leake down, I do believe he still has options left. And if he continues as is he will be the one that goes down, he is close to untradeable unless you just want to give him away
    I guess I disagree with this. If I'm SD and I can get Leake for a LF with a career OPS of 743 that is already in arb, I do it in a heartbeat.

    If I'm Cincy, I probably don't do that trade, just because I don't see Venable as being that big of an upgrade to what we have in LF.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    redsfandan (04-16-2013), wheels (04-16-2013)

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  4. #17
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I guess I disagree with this. If I'm SD and I can get Leake for a LF with a career OPS of 743 that is already in arb, I do it in a heartbeat.

    If I'm Cincy, I probably don't do that trade, just because I don't see Venable as being that big of an upgrade to what we have in LF.
    Don't forget Austin Hedges the catching prospect, whom the Padres might be willing to move due to the presence of Grandal - quite ironically.

    Hedges is a Top 100 prospect who is still likely 3 years away from the bigs, giving the Reds a good hedge option on Mez when Hanigan's contract expires. I suppose the Reds could include Tucker Barnhart in the deal if the Pads wanted a backup once Hundley's contract expires. The difference between Hedges and Barnhart is that Hedges has considerable more upside despite being a year or two further away from the bigs.
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-16-2013 at 09:07 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  6. #18
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Don't forget Austin Hedges the catching prospect, whom the Padres might be willing to move due to the presence of Grandal - quite ironically.

    Hedges is a Top 100 prospect who is still likely 3 years away from the bigs, giving the Reds a good hedge option on Mez when Hanigan's contract expires. I suppose the Reds could include Tucker Barnhart in the deal if the Pads wanted a backup once Hundley's contract expires. The difference between Hedges and Barnhart is that Hedges has considerable more upside despite being a year or two further away from the bigs.
    Sorry, I overlooked that part of the trade.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #19
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    However, if Tony Cingrani looks anything close to as good as he's looked in AAA over his first 3-4 big league starts, there is no way the Reds can send him down after that, right?

    .
    These things always have a way of working themselves out. Even if Cingrani pitches lights out, he'll go back to AAA, where he's needed for when the next starter has to miss start(s), as it is almost guaranteed to happen. Last year's health was an abnomily. (Didn't they set some 100 year record, or something for most starts by five players in a season, or some sort of REDS' health record?)

    It is likely that Cingrani gets at least 6 starts during this stint (or at least five if his spot is skipped as the 5th Starter).

    Then, when Cueto gets back, he'll go to AAA, unless another injury happens or happened during Cueto's absence to one of the other four Starters.

    Cingrani will be needed to stay ready to start at AAA for the next time the REDS need him.

    My question to you:

    Why the desire to make a move in April? The organization has spent the last seven years preparing itself for this season with extra emphasis placed during this last Winter and Spring for this season. It takes two months into a season just to get an idea of what kind of team you have, and even then you don't know what kind of season any of the individuals are going to have.

    A Manager, and Dusty is as good as anyone at this, tries to use April and May for preparing the players he expects to use the most during the season, while being sure to mix in his subs with enough spot starts to prepare them for the Summer months.

    Evaluations were made at the end of March. The next set of evaluations aren't made until June, simply because there isn't enough data to make honest assessments, and even then it's very limited data at that.

    The Oakland A's would have never won any of their many, many division titles from the last 18 years if they had made evaluations on their seasons before June. Barry Larkin never would have started 60 games in a season if evaluations on him were made before June. Ryan Ludwick never would uave started 50 games last year if he was evaluated before June.

    I appreciate Dusty's professionalism and seniority as a Manager. He knows that Heisey needs and deserves 80+ Plate Appearances in April and another 80+ in May to honestly allow him to develop into the hitter this team needs him to be this Summer. The same goes for Cozart. Hanigan is simply an outstanding Defensive Catcher and any Offense out of him is strictly a bonus.

    When June 4th gets here, look at the state of the REDS. The needs will be more obvious.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-16-2013 at 11:18 AM.

  8. #20
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    If Cingrani tears it up and Leake continues to pitch poorly, I obviously first try to send Leake down to the minors to maintain our starting pitching depth. If he refuses, I think I stash him in the bullpen a little while to ensure that Cueto is truly healthy.

    After that, especially if Corcino pitches well, I like the idea of dealing Leake for a LF. I am not sure Venable is the perfect option, but he does hit righties pretty well and we could see his slugging number jump even higher than it currently is moving from Petco to GABP.

    Austin Hedges would be the real coup in Benihana's offer. A gold glove defender behind the dish who can also swing it is a very valuable commodity. Obviously, I like acquiring assets that can help us win now, but Austin Hedges is a consensus top 50 prospect in all of baseball.

    Who knows if the Padres would be interested in Beninaha's deal? All I know is that Leake is valuable now because he is controllable for three years (including 2013) at a reasonable cost. If Cingrani pitches better than him during his audition, I feel like he deserves a chance to stick in the bigs. Leake will never be able to be an above average strikeout guy and has shown a propensity of giving up a lot of big flies. If Cingrani shows he is ready for his big league shot, and Corcino shows he can be a solid fill-in, I think now is a good time to cash in on Leake.

  9. #21
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post

    My question to you:

    Why the desire to make a move in April? The organization has spent the last seven years preparing itself for this season with extra emphasis placed during this last Winter and Spring for this season. It takes two months into a season just to get an idea of what kind of team you have, and even then you don't know what kind of season any of the individuals are going to have.

    A Manager, and Dusty is as good as anyone at this, tries to use April and May for preparing the players he expects to use the most during the season, while being sure to mix in his subs with enough spot starts to prepare them for the Summer months.

    Evaluations were made at the end of March. The next set of evaluations aren't made until June, simply because there isn't enough data to make honest assessments, and even then it's very limited data at that.

    The Oakland A's would have never won any of their many, many division titles from the last 18 years if they had made evaluations on their seasons before June. Barry Larkin never would have started 60 games in a season if evaluations on him were made before June. Ryan Ludwick never would uave started 50 games last year if he was evaluated before June.

    I appreciate Dusty's professionalism and seniority as a Manager. He knows that Heisey needs and deserves 80+ Plate Appearances in April and another 80+ in May to honestly allow him to develop into the hitter this team needs him to be this Summer. The same goes for Cozart. Hanigan is simply an outstanding Defensive Catcher and any Offense out of him is strictly a bonus.

    When June 4th gets here, look at the state of the REDS. The needs will be more obvious.
    Why does Chris Heisey need 80 PA in April and another 80 in May "to honestly allow him to develop into the hitter this team needs him to be this summer?" Why can't we make an evaluation based off of his 1000 career major league plate appearances he's already had? Chris Heisey will be 29 this year, and he is what he is. He is not a starting OF on a playoff contending club, nor will he ever be.

    Yes, the Reds make evaluations in March. But things changed in a fundamental way: our starting LF and cleanup hitter got injured and is now out for at least half of the season. We decided to keep our best arm in the bullpen, and our best starter is now on the DL. If you don't make adjustments, you die. Not saying the Reds are in danger of that, in fact things couldn't be further from that. But if I'm in charge, and Tony Cingrani proves he is here to stay (outpitching Mike Leake by a mile), I think about making a move to improve the big league club when Johnny Cueto is ready to return. Keeping Cingrani in the rotation (in this scenario) AND improving LF both accomplish that.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  11. #22
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Venable: .262 .331 .431 vs right handers over the last three years. no wild year to year fluctuations, that is exactly who he is. And every year he suckers me into picking him up off waivers because of a hot 2 weeks. Not this year Wil!

    I think the Reds have their LF in Choo, with Ludwick's return slated for July, expect his power to drop considerably. Maybe he 's fully healthy next year, but he's a sunk cost.

    Hamilton is in a little slump, 3-28 that has dropped his numbers considerably. To which i say "good" He's not a power talent. He needs to hit smarter than everyone else to be successful. But I think he is that kind of player, one that will approach hitting with the thought of situation plus maximizing his abilities. He's not ready, clearly, but he might be by July.

    I'm no fan of Mike Leake. For a guy so polished he didn't "need" any minor league time, he sure looks like a guy that needed some minor league time. But if you can get say Tyler Moore, I'd be all over that.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #23
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    That trade won't happen, as the Padres are not ready to contend any time soon...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #24
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    ....with Ludwick's return slated for July...
    I missed that. Where did you hear it?

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Why does Chris Heisey need 80 PA in April and another 80 in May "to honestly allow him to develop into the hitter this team needs him to be this summer?"
    Because only once in Heisey's career has he had more than 60 PA's in back-to-back months, and it was much fewer than 80 PA's. That's about 3/5th's of a Spring Training Starters' Plate Appearances in March. And, only one other time has Heisey had more than 50 PA's in back-to-back months. Heisey's best plate appearances of his career are ahead of him, not behind him. Dusty knows this. Walt knows this. Heisey has never been given a legitimate chance to see what he can do, yet. Heisey is not "what he is". You have yet to see the best of Chris Heisey.

    If you panic in April, you won't be around in September.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-16-2013 at 01:13 PM.

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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Because only once in Heisey's career has he had more than 60 PA's in back-to-back months, and it was much fewer than 80 PA's. That's about 3/5th's of a Spring Training Starters' Plate Appearances in March. And, only one other time has Heisey had more than 50 PA's in back-to-back months. Heisey's best plate appearances of his career are ahead of him, not behind him. Dusty knows this. Walt knows this. Heisey has never been given a legitimate chance to see what he can do, yet. Heisey is not "what he is". You have yet to see the best of Chris Heisey.

    If you panic in April, you won't be around in September.
    Based off of what? The fact that they gave a 36 year old player $15MM over the next two years to start over him? The fact that they continued to start Drew Stubbs and his .277 OBP over him last year? The fact that they continue to platoon (as they should for now) him with an OF who has never started anywhere and sports a .677 career OPS?

    Everytime Chris Heisey has been given an extended (more than a couple weeks) chance to start, he has proven why he is best suited as a reserve OF. This season appears no different.

    Hell, he even said himself he feels better and more focused as a pinch-hitter than he does as a regular starter. What more evidence do you need?
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #27
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Based off of what? The fact that they gave a 36 year old player $15MM over the next two years to start over him? The fact that they continued to start Drew Stubbs and his .277 OBP over him last year? The fact that they continue to platoon (as they should for now) him with an OF who has never started anywhere and sports a .677 career OPS?

    Everytime Chris Heisey has been given an extended (more than a couple weeks) chance to start, he has proven why he is best suited as a reserve OF. This season appears no different.

    Hell, he even said himself he feels better and more focused as a pinch-hitter than he does as a regular starter. What more evidence do you need?
    Stubbs was the high draft pick. Heisey was in the 16th round. The high draft pick gets the benefit of the doubt, plus when Stubbs got on base, he scored at a very high rate (highest in the league, I believe). Ludwick's power to Left Field in the GAB was tremendous. There wasn't any reason to believe that it couldn't come close to that at home again this season, while the team needed power coming from the Right side of the plate. Phillips' power had been waning the last couple of seasons as he has gotten older.

    As you have stated, Heisey has not stepped up when given his opportunities to earn a Starting Outfield position. But, as Chris Welsh has pointed out publicly, those weren't extended opportunities, but were brief opportunities, as you have also pointed out.

    Certainly, this is the last time Heisey will be given an opportunity to earn a Starting spot, and even if he earns it, probably not for too long, as you pointed out his age. But, age 28 is traditionally a baseball player's peak physical age. This would be the most likely year that he puts it together. I'm hoping he gets 80+ plate appearances in each of April, May and June to prove it.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-16-2013 at 02:54 PM.

  17. #28
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I missed that. Where did you hear it?
    read somewhere that was the estimate for his type of injury, but i think that was best case.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  18. #29
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    Re: 30 Day Personnel Plan If Cingrani Succeeds

    http://www.fangraphs.com/not/tony-ci...venn-dominant/

    You see, Tony Cingrani is so dominant in the categories of Strikeouts, Prospect Swagger, and Italian Name Sounds that they orbit around him, move through him. In him, they have melded into a perfect being.
    Sounds pretty promising so far.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Thus his team was punished

    Long live punishment
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    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    This tells me how good he really was last year.

    If 16 NL teams last year had 5 starters... that's 80 starters.

    That means top 16 your typical 1
    top 32 your typical 2
    top 48 your typical 3 and so on... now some teams had 5 legit starters and others had none.

    That puts Leake as an average to slightly below average 3 starter in the NL last year.
    Bingo!!!

    Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk 2
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009


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