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Thread: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

  1. #136
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    That really didn't answer the question. "Average" vs. "Above average" is a comparison. You just told me what measure you used to make that comparison.

    When I did a quick and dirty look at OPS+, I see an above average power hitter who is just now 26, has above average range, and a plus arm. His career OPS+ is 114. Wouldn't you say that is above average?
    You will admit, though, that OPS+ only gives a partial picture of Jay's worth relative to the league (offense). Flawed though it may be, WAR tries to ask a more complete question.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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  3. #137
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    That's not at all what I was doing here. Not even close. The condescension I referred to was the posters who constantly talk down to others, as if they're somehow superior to them. I never do that. If I wanted to be that way, I could have gone back and found the quote and used it to single that person out, but that's a jerk move and I'm not the least bit interested in being that way. Honestly, I had no memory of who posted it and didn't care. I just thought it was odd at the time and still do.

    As for everyone being disappointed if Jay doesn't OPS over .800, you can leave me out of that group. He was and still is on pace to drive in 100+ runs and hit 25-30 HRs, while getting numerous clutch hits and playing great RF defense. If anyone considers that a disappointing season, then I guess we just have different standards. As usual, I respect your opinion, even if you don't respect mine.

    Go Reds!
    No offense, but f you really respected it, then you wouldn't have said "you can't make this stuff up" as if to mock anyone that was disappointed by him. Those aren't the words of someone that respects another opinion.

    The home run totals and RBI totals aren't all that meaningful in the context of a sub-.800 OPS. Rob Deer used to hit home runs regularly, and a few seasons he had decent RBI totals. But run creation is dependent on getting on base and slugging both, not just RBI totals.

    Put another way, OPS tells us more about Bruce's overall production than his RBI totals. Fortunately, his numbers are getting back to where they belong, thus he's creating a lot of runs. But when his OPS was below .800, it wasn't anything to write home about.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #138
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    You will admit, though, that OPS+ only gives a partial picture of Jay's worth relative to the league (offense). Flawed though it may be, WAR tries to ask a more complete question.
    I think measurements should answer a question, rather than ask. Until D stats become reliable, then WAR will not be reliable. Furthermore, what you quoted was inclusive of offense and defense. You may not agree with my conclusion on D, but I analyzed both sides of the game. So what would I be admitting?
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  5. #139
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    No, it isn't. I can't help others' crazed expectations, but #1 prospect in baseball doesn't equal automatic Hall of Famer or guy who never makes an out or whatever impossible bar some set. He projected to be an above average major league outfielder, and he has been that and more. I don't get and have never understood the need to set impossible standards in front of guys before they even make their major league debut. It happened with homer, it happened with jay, it will probably happen with Hamilton. All that does is keep people from enjoying the transition from prospect to legit major league player. And jay has aced that transition. It is the height of churlish to dwell on what he is not in my opinion, rather than enjoy what he is
    Hoping the No. 1 prospect in baseball plays like a perennial all-star and MVP candidate isn't having crazed expectations. It might not be the most-likely outcome, but it's also not irrational to hope a player lives up to those expectations and being slightly disappointed if a player "only" has a career .815 OPS instead of a guy that constantly lives in the .900's. His career OPS+ is 114. That's good. It means he's above average. But there are quite a few players that are significantly better. In fact, there are 52 players with a higher active OPS+ right now in the majors. When he was considered the best prospect, I don't think people really envisioned him being the 50th best hitter in baseball as living up to the hype. If you were to go back and time and tell people that Bruce's OPS+ would be 114 at this point in his career, he would not have been hyped much and he wouldn't have been anywhere near the top prospect in baseball. There are a lot of guys that project out to be slightly above-average hitters. Hype is reserved for guys who can reach for the stars. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are guys that had ridiculous hype, and their numbers are living up to it.

    I don't think Bruce has lived up to his talent level or expectations by any measure. That doesn't mean he's not a terrific baseball player. It's OK to believe that he's both fallen short of expectations and still think he's a wonderfully productive player. I can't emphasize that enough... he's not living up to the hype but he's still very productive. Worth the money the Reds are paying him. The two trains of thought can indeed coexist.
    Last edited by Brutus; 06-18-2013 at 04:24 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  7. #140
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    The repeated comp/projection for Bruce was Larry Walker. Bruce just turned 26 two months ago. Here are his and Walker's stats thru age 25.

    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  9. #141
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Hoping the No. 1 prospect in baseball plays like a perennial all-star and MVP candidate isn't having crazed expectations. It might not be the most-likely outcome, but it's also not irrational to hope a player lives up to those expectations and being slightly disappointed if a player "only" has a career .815 OPS instead of a guy that constantly lives in the .900's.

    I don't think Bruce has lived up to his talent level or expectations by any measure. That doesn't mean he's not a terrific baseball player. It's OK to believe that he's both fallen short of expectations and still think he's a wonderfully productive player. The two trains of thought can indeed coexist.
    Who decides on the definition of talent level or expectations? For my money, I'll take terrific ballplayers and pay them accordingly. That "talent level or expectations" was in the form of a signing bonus, paid and most likely spent. It is at this point meaningless, other than for some fan to still find something to complain about with a very good ballplayer who still may not have have peaked in his career.
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  10. #142
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I'm not sure anyone could live up to that hype.
    Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have been doing it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  11. #143
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Who decides on the definition of talent level or expectations? For my money, I'll take terrific ballplayers and pay them accordingly. That "talent level or expectations" was in the form of a signing bonus, paid and most likely spent. It is at this point meaningless, other than for some fan to still find something to complain about with a very good ballplayer who still may not have have peaked in his career.
    All of the discussion on this board is meaningless in the greater context of the universe, frankly, but if we eliminated that chatter, there'd be nothing to discuss.

    Regardless, I've never been one that gets on here and "complains" about Bruce. In fact, I almost never express frustration about how he's been a "disappointment." I only lamented that a .750 OPS would, in fact, be disappointing to me if that's what he finished the season with. I don't think that should really qualify as complaining as lamenting on a message board one's opinion. That is, after all, what we're all here to do.

    Each person has their own expectations for each player. But they're often fueled by the superlatives and rankings made by people like Baseball America. They set the bar high for Bruce, just as they've done with other prospects. Some guys reach that bar, some don't. It certainly shows that it's not realistic to expect every player to live up to said hype. But again, when you see a player come along with Bruce's talent level, which doesn't happen often, I don't think anyone should be intimidated to feel guilty if he doesn't quite live up to that talent level.

    I see Bruce's talent and skill set, and I still claim he's an MVP type of talent. Tom Servo mentioned the Larry Walker comp, which is an excellent one. I think Bruce has Walker's talent, certainly, and if he develops at 27-32 the way Walker did, I think he will have lived up to his talent level. If he never does that, again, I'll be more than happy to accept his production as a member of the Reds' team. He's a very good player. Just don't think anyone should feel guilty for having high hopes and expectations for a player deemed to be one of the best prospects in baseball.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  13. #144
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Bryce Harper and Mike Trout have been doing it.
    Which proves what? That Bruce is a disappointment? That expectations were realistic for Bruce? That anyone can provide evidence of "expectations and hype"? How many guys really live up to all the tags put on them for hopes and dreams of what the player might become?

    Ok, I'm outta this rabbit hole.
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    All of the discussion on this board is meaningless in the greater context of the universe, frankly, but if we eliminated that chatter, there'd be nothing to discuss.

    Regardless, I've never been one that gets on here and "complains" about Bruce. In fact, I almost never express frustration about how he's been a "disappointment." I only lamented that a .750 OPS would, in fact, be disappointing to me if that's what he finished the season with. I don't think that should really qualify as complaining as lamenting on a message board one's opinion. That is, after all, what we're all here to do.

    Each person has their own expectations for each player. But they're often fueled by the superlatives and rankings made by people like Baseball America. They set the bar high for Bruce, just as they've done with other prospects. Some guys reach that bar, some don't. It certainly shows that it's not realistic to expect every player to live up to said hype. But again, when you see a player come along with Bruce's talent level, which doesn't happen often, I don't think anyone should be intimidated to feel guilty if he doesn't quite live up to that talent level.

    I see Bruce's talent and skill set, and I still claim he's an MVP type of talent. Tom Servo mentioned the Larry Walker comp, which is an excellent one. I think Bruce has Walker's talent, certainly, and if he develops at 27-32 the way Walker did, I think he will have lived up to his talent level. If he never does that, again, I'll be more than happy to accept his production as a member of the Reds' team. He's a very good player. Just don't think anyone should feel guilty for having high hopes and expectations for a player deemed to be one of the best prospects in baseball.
    You could try the method of skepticism. Someone's always promoting the next great thing, usually with their own self-interest, so I pretty much ignore hype and expectations.
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  15. #146
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    You could try the method of skepticism. Someone's always promoting the next great thing, usually with their own self-interest, so I pretty much ignore hype and expectations.
    I'm always skeptical. But it's not often when a team has the so-called "No. 1-prospect in baseball."

    Guys with that label usually give scouts some reasons for it. It's because they have talent and traits that others simply don't have. I maintain a healthy dose of skepticism about most prospects. The odds are most will fail. That's especially why I don't EVER complain about draft picks. Frankly, two-thirds of first round picks won't even cut it in the majors. But while I don't believe anyone is a can't-miss prospect, there are some that just have the 'it' factor. Bruce appeared to be one of those guys. On occasion, he still does.

    Again, don't see why anyone should be told to feel guilty for believing that.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #147
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I think measurements should answer a question, rather than ask. Until D stats become reliable, then WAR will not be reliable. Furthermore, what you quoted was inclusive of offense and defense. You may not agree with my conclusion on D, but I analyzed both sides of the game. So what would I be admitting?
    You didn't really "analyze" Bruce's defense -- you stated that he had an above average arm and range. WAR may be flawed, but it at least makes a gesture at objective analysis of D beyond eye test generalizations. I am not saying I disagree with your conclusion necessarily -- only that is drawing on OPS as its primary objective measure. This leaves out at least half of Bruce's value in your assessment.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  17. #148
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Reds have had 10 number 1 picks in the last 10 years and all of them are perennial MVP candidates, except for Jay Bruce who is a bum who can't even live up to modest, realistic expectations like being the best player in baseball.
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    *UPDATED: 2/11/2014

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    The repeated comp/projection for Bruce was Larry Walker. Bruce just turned 26 two months ago. Here are his and Walker's stats thru age 25.

    So Bruce just needs to get traded to the thin air of Mile High and his career will take off!
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Tonight was yet another example of why an x OPS hitter who delivers in the clutch will always be better than an x+100 OPS hitter who doesn't. OPS isn't the be all-end all of stats.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN


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