“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
No offense, but f you really respected it, then you wouldn't have said "you can't make this stuff up" as if to mock anyone that was disappointed by him. Those aren't the words of someone that respects another opinion.
The home run totals and RBI totals aren't all that meaningful in the context of a sub-.800 OPS. Rob Deer used to hit home runs regularly, and a few seasons he had decent RBI totals. But run creation is dependent on getting on base and slugging both, not just RBI totals.
Put another way, OPS tells us more about Bruce's overall production than his RBI totals. Fortunately, his numbers are getting back to where they belong, thus he's creating a lot of runs. But when his OPS was below .800, it wasn't anything to write home about.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I think measurements should answer a question, rather than ask. Until D stats become reliable, then WAR will not be reliable. Furthermore, what you quoted was inclusive of offense and defense. You may not agree with my conclusion on D, but I analyzed both sides of the game. So what would I be admitting?
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Hoping the No. 1 prospect in baseball plays like a perennial all-star and MVP candidate isn't having crazed expectations. It might not be the most-likely outcome, but it's also not irrational to hope a player lives up to those expectations and being slightly disappointed if a player "only" has a career .815 OPS instead of a guy that constantly lives in the .900's. His career OPS+ is 114. That's good. It means he's above average. But there are quite a few players that are significantly better. In fact, there are 52 players with a higher active OPS+ right now in the majors. When he was considered the best prospect, I don't think people really envisioned him being the 50th best hitter in baseball as living up to the hype. If you were to go back and time and tell people that Bruce's OPS+ would be 114 at this point in his career, he would not have been hyped much and he wouldn't have been anywhere near the top prospect in baseball. There are a lot of guys that project out to be slightly above-average hitters. Hype is reserved for guys who can reach for the stars. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are guys that had ridiculous hype, and their numbers are living up to it.
I don't think Bruce has lived up to his talent level or expectations by any measure. That doesn't mean he's not a terrific baseball player. It's OK to believe that he's both fallen short of expectations and still think he's a wonderfully productive player. I can't emphasize that enough... he's not living up to the hype but he's still very productive. Worth the money the Reds are paying him. The two trains of thought can indeed coexist.
Last edited by Brutus; 06-18-2013 at 04:24 PM.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Big Klu (06-21-2013)
The repeated comp/projection for Bruce was Larry Walker. Bruce just turned 26 two months ago. Here are his and Walker's stats thru age 25.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Who decides on the definition of talent level or expectations? For my money, I'll take terrific ballplayers and pay them accordingly. That "talent level or expectations" was in the form of a signing bonus, paid and most likely spent. It is at this point meaningless, other than for some fan to still find something to complain about with a very good ballplayer who still may not have have peaked in his career.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
All of the discussion on this board is meaningless in the greater context of the universe, frankly, but if we eliminated that chatter, there'd be nothing to discuss.
Regardless, I've never been one that gets on here and "complains" about Bruce. In fact, I almost never express frustration about how he's been a "disappointment." I only lamented that a .750 OPS would, in fact, be disappointing to me if that's what he finished the season with. I don't think that should really qualify as complaining as lamenting on a message board one's opinion. That is, after all, what we're all here to do.
Each person has their own expectations for each player. But they're often fueled by the superlatives and rankings made by people like Baseball America. They set the bar high for Bruce, just as they've done with other prospects. Some guys reach that bar, some don't. It certainly shows that it's not realistic to expect every player to live up to said hype. But again, when you see a player come along with Bruce's talent level, which doesn't happen often, I don't think anyone should be intimidated to feel guilty if he doesn't quite live up to that talent level.
I see Bruce's talent and skill set, and I still claim he's an MVP type of talent. Tom Servo mentioned the Larry Walker comp, which is an excellent one. I think Bruce has Walker's talent, certainly, and if he develops at 27-32 the way Walker did, I think he will have lived up to his talent level. If he never does that, again, I'll be more than happy to accept his production as a member of the Reds' team. He's a very good player. Just don't think anyone should feel guilty for having high hopes and expectations for a player deemed to be one of the best prospects in baseball.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Big Klu (06-21-2013)
Which proves what? That Bruce is a disappointment? That expectations were realistic for Bruce? That anyone can provide evidence of "expectations and hype"? How many guys really live up to all the tags put on them for hopes and dreams of what the player might become?
Ok, I'm outta this rabbit hole.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
I'm always skeptical. But it's not often when a team has the so-called "No. 1-prospect in baseball."
Guys with that label usually give scouts some reasons for it. It's because they have talent and traits that others simply don't have. I maintain a healthy dose of skepticism about most prospects. The odds are most will fail. That's especially why I don't EVER complain about draft picks. Frankly, two-thirds of first round picks won't even cut it in the majors. But while I don't believe anyone is a can't-miss prospect, there are some that just have the 'it' factor. Bruce appeared to be one of those guys. On occasion, he still does.
Again, don't see why anyone should be told to feel guilty for believing that.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
You didn't really "analyze" Bruce's defense -- you stated that he had an above average arm and range. WAR may be flawed, but it at least makes a gesture at objective analysis of D beyond eye test generalizations. I am not saying I disagree with your conclusion necessarily -- only that is drawing on OPS as its primary objective measure. This leaves out at least half of Bruce's value in your assessment.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Reds have had 10 number 1 picks in the last 10 years and all of them are perennial MVP candidates, except for Jay Bruce who is a bum who can't even live up to modest, realistic expectations like being the best player in baseball.
*BaseClogger* (06-20-2013),Always Red (06-18-2013),AtomicDumpling (06-19-2013),Homer Bailey (06-24-2013),membengal (06-18-2013),New York Red (06-18-2013),Tom Servo (06-18-2013),traderumor (06-19-2013),WrongVerb (06-19-2013)
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Raisor (06-18-2013)
Tonight was yet another example of why an x OPS hitter who delivers in the clutch will always be better than an x+100 OPS hitter who doesn't. OPS isn't the be all-end all of stats.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |