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Thread: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

  1. #166
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    BP is a perfect example. He was OPSing at .770 a few days ago, yet he led the league in almost every clutch RBI category. I'll take the clutch RBI guy over the non-clutch guy who OPS's .870 and doesn't deliver when it matters. Same with Jay Bruce. Who cares if his OPS is 100 points lower than the guy who doesn't deliver in crunch time. Then you consider defense and, well, nevermind. Bruce and Phillips are the most under-appreciated Reds on RZ. The OPS crowd just doesn't get it.
    He is a perfect example....of why clutch hitting is a myth. For his career his numbers with RISP are right about the same as his overall numbers. Those same numbers are correcting themselves right now. I don't want to go into it all since there are volumes written on the subject, but being a clutch hitter is mostly a myth. There are very, very few players that actually outperform their norm in any significant manner.

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    BP is a perfect example. He was OPSing at .770 a few days ago, yet he led the league in almost every clutch RBI category.
    Yet query why Philips hasn't been the clutch RBI machine every year of his career.

    It's almost like "clutch" isn't a repeatable stat.......

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    I don't want to go into it all since there are volumes written on the subject, but being a clutch hitter is mostly a myth. There are very, very few players that actually outperform their norm in any significant manner.
    Are there players that under-perform their norm when it matters most? Shrink from the challenge? I do not know how to manipulate all the data bases like you guys do or I would look it up myself. My apologies.

    For the record I am of the opinion that "clutch" is a very real thing (albeit obviously not an overly objective thing) in ALL sports. Some guys get butterflies. Some guys get their butterflies to fly in formation.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    "OPS guys" of the world unite!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Are there players that under-perform their norm when it matters most? Shrink from the challenge? I do not know how to manipulate all the data bases like you guys do or I would look it up myself. My apologies.

    For the record I am of the opinion that "clutch" is a very real thing (albeit obviously not an overly objective thing) in ALL sports. Some guys get butterflies. Some guys get their butterflies to fly in formation.
    I think you are talking about clutch as a physiological effect. It probably does exist there. Thing is, that uneasy feeling doesn't translate to meaningful changes in player performance.

    Basically, the guy with the lower OPS who "delivers" is probably just a less effective hitter who recently overcame a few bouts of indigestion in the late innings.
    Last edited by RedEye; 06-20-2013 at 07:57 AM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Are there players that under-perform their norm when it matters most? Shrink from the challenge? I do not know how to manipulate all the data bases like you guys do or I would look it up myself. My apologies.

    For the record I am of the opinion that "clutch" is a very real thing (albeit obviously not an overly objective thing) in ALL sports. Some guys get butterflies. Some guys get their butterflies to fly in formation.
    I'm not sure how it is "officially" figured, and I'm not much good at it either, but here's a quick way I figured out using baseball-reference.com. Pick your player, go to the season in question and click on "splits", scroll down to "RISP," and then compare to his regular season total rates and numbers.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=b#bases

    BP is killing it in the clutch this year, so far.

    You can do the same for his career, and it looks as if BP does hit slightly better with runners in scoring position, again, as compared to his total career rates.

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    To measure clutch you have to define clutch, otherwise meaningful discussion is impossible
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Guys smarter than most all of us are on record lately about this. They say clutch mostly doesn't exist -- at least when looking at yearly or even year-to-year samples. Where it does exist -- maybe -- is in the analysis of large samples of performance over long spans of time. Rest assured the data available on Jay and BP is too limited to analyze in this manner. Absent that, we are better served to say that clutch is -- basically -- a myth.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think you are talking about clutch as a physiological effect. It probably does exist there. Thing is, that uneasy feeling doesn't translate to meaningful changes in player performance.

    Basically, the guy with the lower OPS who "delivers" is probably just a less effective hitter who recently overcame a few bouts of indigestion in the late innings.
    Being a sports psych nerd I believe that some players have the ability to focus (and thus perform better) under pressure than others. Hitting in extra innings w/ RISP, shooting free throws w/ 0 time on the clock and down 2 pts, kicking a game winning field goal w/ time running out, bowling a perfect a game w/ 3 frames to go, holing a 6 footer for birdie to win The Masters, etc....

    It's both physiological and psychological. They play on one another. A 6 footer on Thursday afternoon counts the same as 6 footer on Sunday afternoon in contention, but they are not in any way the same putt. Same with the scenarios above. I think the "uneasy" feeling HAS to translate to player performance. Being able to measure it is something different.
    Last edited by TSJ55; 06-20-2013 at 08:21 AM.
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    I'm not sure how it is "officially" figured, and I'm not much good at it either, but here's a quick way I figured out using baseball-reference.com. Pick your player, go to the season in question and click on "splits", scroll down to "RISP," and then compare to his regular season total rates and numbers.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=b#bases

    BP is killing it in the clutch this year, so far.

    You can do the same for his career, and it looks as if BP does hit slightly better with runners in scoring position, again, as compared to his total career rates.
    Thanks. Brutus was using "close and late" as well above I think. That was completely foreign to me.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

  18. #176
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    To measure clutch you have to define clutch, otherwise meaningful discussion is impossible
    True, it's very subjective. RISP is a decent measure in baseball I guess, but as the game progresses and pressure to score mounts, the situation evolves even further. Jay may drop an "F" bomb in the 1st when strikes out w/ RISP, but he'll go on a tirade in the 10th.

    Brutus used "late and close" and Always Red was using RISP splits. Those two together could be useful.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

  19. #177
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    I'm not sure how it is "officially" figured, and I'm not much good at it either, but here's a quick way I figured out using baseball-reference.com. Pick your player, go to the season in question and click on "splits", scroll down to "RISP," and then compare to his regular season total rates and numbers.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=b#bases

    BP is killing it in the clutch this year, so far.

    You can do the same for his career, and it looks as if BP does hit slightly better with runners in scoring position, again, as compared to his total career rates.
    Most of his higher clutch stats for his career (from an OPS standpoint) can be accounted for in extra walks, and that is something you will commonly see with hitting in the middle of the order. If a lefthander is on the mound with a bag open, he is going to get extra walks if there is a lefthander behind him (something that has happened a lot in his career). You also have to realize a defense with RISP will not always be optimal, and you will see that in his higher BABIP w/RISP. Phillips is well within his norm and certainly no where near "clutch."

    There simply are very, very few players that have any significant differences in their clutch stats once you take into account how a player is pitched to and how the defense plays w/RISP.

    It will be pretty much impossible to go into all of it, and if you want to read more there are volumes of stuff out there. For the most part the idea of clutch hitting is a myth. As with anything, there are outliers. Yet they are incredibly few and far between.
    Last edited by scott91575; 06-20-2013 at 08:28 AM.

  20. #178
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    "Clutch" may be more mental than anything.

    I've noticed a huge difference in Jay this season. He had a horrible first month but didn't get down on himself. His mental maturity is the most noticeable.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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  22. #179
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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Double post
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jay Bruce looks like he has become a professional hitter overnight!!!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Are there players that under-perform their norm when it matters most? Shrink from the challenge? I do not know how to manipulate all the data bases like you guys do or I would look it up myself. My apologies.

    For the record I am of the opinion that "clutch" is a very real thing (albeit obviously not an overly objective thing) in ALL sports. Some guys get butterflies. Some guys get their butterflies to fly in formation.
    That has been touched on too. The same rules apply, for the most part, on the low end. You also have to take into account bad hitters will be pitched to differently that good hitters in clutch situations, where a guy traditionally hits in the order (if he spends years being one of the few righties in a heavy lefthanded lineup he will see lots of walks in clutch situations if a LOOGY is on the mound), and other variables. When you look at the totality of it all, it's hard to deny clutch stats are pretty much meaningless.

    Personally, I think some sports have more clutch issues than others. Golf for instance, especially when putting. It's a very slow stroke and tons of time to think about it. Baseball, on the other hand, you have a split second to react to a pitch. Natural instincts tend to kick in, and preparation through every day drills is way bigger than any nervous feeling a person might have coming to the plate. On top of that, baseball players face meaningful at bats all the time in comparison to something like golf where hitting a put to win a tournament might happen a few times a year if you are the best golfer in the world and maybe only once in your entire career if you are a middle of the road pro golfer.

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